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Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

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Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#31

Post by nologic01 »

Its good to have somebody root for progress. A monoculture of doom cannot possibly serve us well. But if that advocacy is done in a poor way it only serves to highlight how justified the critical view of technosolutionism.

There are at least three areas where I find his world view lacking.

First, its not historically informed. There was another astonishing period of progress and it did not end well: the broader GreacoRoman period. It was arguably even more revolutionary as it cultivated the basic mental modes required for science. Yet that world did not land smoothly on an s-curve, it collapsed completely. Yes, collapse is an accessible end-state today as well. If it turns out we cannot learn from the disasters of the past we have every reason to worry they will be repeated.

Which brings to the second point. You cant separate the scientific and technological universe from socio-economic organization. There are countless ways one can mobilize society for a while (eg slave labor that frees elites for higher pursuits) but long-term stable progress must, by definition, be based on fundamentally fair and distributive societies that dont chew on themselves.

Third, there are objective, physical and biological constraints that limit progress. The universe and our planet dont owe us a boundless canvas for us to realize any bizarre mental construct or obsession. What is on offer is already vast, but it does not extend in all directions. Learning to identify the naturally available growth options will be key for sustainable development.

I also think he misunderstands the role of digital tech. It is true that its impact so far has been marginal, even regressive, and pales in comparison to the major breakthroughs of 19th and 20th centuries. But its true nature is really human knowledge augmentation, similar to the invention of writing, the invention of mathematical proof etc. If we could liberate tech from the psychopaths and the sick economic system that supports them, it could lead to a enormous boost of global ingenuity and productivity. The tech dividend is still to be seen.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#32

Post by mathieuh »

anovikov wrote: post #24
boxed wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of purpose is the core thing I think. If you have that, then isolation solves itself, and obesity might very well solve itself too. Lack of purpose is also the consequence of not being able to even think of a brighter future. Not seeing what humanity COULD be and working towards it.

Lack of purpose is inevitable and unfixable. In the world where success is infinitely scalable as we are living in the information age, most people are doomed to uselessness no matter what. Trick is how to help them get over it. Obesity is a medical problem and will be solved by rather trivial medical means very soon, at least on that front, future is bright.

Not everyone has to have some grand purpose. I work to earn enough money to do what I like, I'm not planning or hoping to make a heap of money. I would be perfectly happy living a comfortable yet completely unnoticed life.

In fact I think a lot of people my age (late 20s) are starting to feel like this as a reaction to the idea that anyone who isn't driving a nice car or going abroad several times a year is a failure. That's the impression I get from talking to people at work anyway.

You still get those status-driven people but frankly I feel very uneasy around them.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#33

Post by RandomLensman »

boxed wrote: post #22
safety1st wrote: post #7

His philosophy doesn't resonate with me. Broadly speaking, since the industrial revolution scientific and technological progress has been about increasing productivity and available energy. This has had profoundly positive effects on our lives but in a developed country it's not obvious that becoming another order of magnitude more productive will automatically lead to people having even better lives. In the advanced…

Lack of purpose is the core thing I think. If you have that, then isolation solves itself, and obesity might very well solve itself too. Lack of purpose is also the consequence of not being able to even think of a brighter future. Not seeing what humanity COULD be and working towards it.

Why should it be impossible to think of a brighter future? Maybe humans should be living like gods, not worried about diseases, the environment, etc. Maybe humans should strive to become the dominant species in the universe? Why should the current "protestant work ethic" (in a Max Weber sense) guide us - hedonism might also have something to each us.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#34

Post by Towaway69 »

abss wrote: post #11
rektide wrote: post #3

I hate to say it, but the tech industry is the roadblock. Most of what happens is far off, remote, unobservable, unlearnable. People cannot understand what is happening on the things they deal with the most. Everything is black box apps powered by vast cloud data centers. Humanity has zero chance to find their footing in this world, to comprehend what goes on about them. Tech is to blame, tech is the problem, and the…

Maybe the real issues emerge from capitalist system rules and incentives and the current tech industry is just shaped and emerged as a result?

I've switched to thinking consumerism is more of a problem than capitalism. Capitalism is just the producer, if what capitalism produced isn't consumered, certain things won't be produced.

Additionally consumerism is something that we all can influence with our credit cards. Capitalism is largely controlled by large nameless corporations.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#35

Post by Towaway69 »

mkoubaa wrote: post #25

Natural selection only works if the organism is allowed to die. I think the same is true for institutions and the cultural elite. Part of the stagnation, if you buy it's existence, is a slowing of the rate of death of institutions. I partially buy these arguments but life extension is such a stupid non-goal because it'll only calcify the elite leadership important institutions. Within a year or two we will have an AI…

This is also noticeable in the ages of our leaders, it seems that 80 years of age is becoming the new average.

With that we get out-of-date worldviews and status-quo capitalism.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#36

Post by okwhateverdude »

quonn wrote: post #27
mkoubaa wrote: post #25

Natural selection only works if the organism is allowed to die. I think the same is true for institutions and the cultural elite. Part of the stagnation, if you buy it's existence, is a slowing of the rate of death of institutions. I partially buy these arguments but life extension is such a stupid non-goal because it'll only calcify the elite leadership important institutions. Within a year or two we will have an AI…

It‘s the Singularity talk from 2009 all over again … Why would they live to 150? They won‘t. They will die with 95, just like everyone else.

Well, who knows what genetic advances we'll make in 40 years. We squashed a pandemic in two years based on research that had been percolating for ten years. People don't die of old age, they die of ailments that accumulate through age. The more of those we fix, the longer people live. I'm not confident of the 150 number, but larger generational cohorts above 100? You bet.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#38

Post by wiz21c »

> Stop climate change and prevent pandemics and so there are all these terrible things that people are worried about and if we can just not have them, then maybe that’s a bright future, but that’s not actually a better future than today. It’s just avoiding a worse one.

He should study the notion of priority before thinking about philosophy. That's much more in its abilities.

> Here’s the case as clearly and concisely as I can make it. Consider the 50-year period that ended about 100 years ago, from 1870 to 1920, let’s say. In this period, we got by my count, five major innovations.

Between 1870 and 1920 one had WW1. So maybe there wasn't much progress on peace ?

> One is the burden of regulation, which has grown enormously.

Regulation is progress in handling innovation.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#39

Post by qikInNdOutReply »

The problem is not with progress. The problem is with denial of a dilema. Human baseline nature is unable to handle much more progress. Meaning, we are already very close to the killer drone dilema, and as even small crisis like the Covid virus have shown, once we come under pressure we fall apart. We can pretend all we want in good times, that we are strong and cohesive and we have good captains steering the ship. But in the bad times, its revealed these are just play actors, standing with unconnected steering wheels in light opera uniforms on deck of breaking vessels.

To think that handing more dangerous technology to such a unpatched humanity solves problems instead of just upping the stakes in a dangerous game, instead of patching the holes in our heads first, is contraproductive. We need to tame ourselves, before we are able to advance. Thus we need a realistic assesement of all our behaviour, a solid patching holding up to crisis and a almost stoic with apps as result, before progress can continue. Our hands are to flimsy for the tools we can make.

PS: " Automnomous suicide drones in city XXXXXX due to progress" should be the real title.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#40

Post by mandmandam »

RandomLensman wrote: post #28
beambot wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious - many people do see those "problems" as the "opportunity" of our time, just as past generations had their own bleaknesses to overcome.

If you compare, for example, the 1960s view of future with the current - quite a difference. A lot now is about costs to bear and then eventually it might get better. Are there business opportunities in the problems - for sure, but that isn't quite the same as a general bright outlook on the future.

Our future was robbed between the 1960s and now.

Crazy great things have happened - usually thanks to the best of us. But the worst of us have been pulling the same mega-destructive stunts for decades, and they keep getting away with it.

There are good reasons to have optimism, but like... We were violently mugged, and are bleeding. We need to do something about all that before worrying that our outlook isn't rosy enough.

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