Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress • Hacker News Board

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#21

Post by usrusr » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 7:51 AM UTC

I see only three paths of progress:

a) space colonization (however that may work, I don't think there's a way)

b) embracing stagnation (in all countable units, except perhaps transistors)

c) buildup to violent collapse (which may or may not be followed by something capable of written history)

b in particular goes far beyond just "a sufficiently large number of people don't procreate", because if it's not somewhat evenly distributed, all future generations will be descendants of high-reproduction ancestors and you're back at square one.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#22

Post by boxed » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 7:53 AM UTC

safety1st wrote: post #7

His philosophy doesn't resonate with me. Broadly speaking, since the industrial revolution scientific and technological progress has been about increasing productivity and available energy. This has had profoundly positive effects on our lives but in a developed country it's not obvious that becoming another order of magnitude more productive will automatically lead to people having even better lives. In the advanced…

Lack of purpose is the core thing I think. If you have that, then isolation solves itself, and obesity might very well solve itself too.

Lack of purpose is also the consequence of not being able to even think of a brighter future. Not seeing what humanity COULD be and working towards it.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#23

Post by beambot » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 7:55 AM UTC

RandomLensman wrote: post #15

safety1st wrote: post #7

His philosophy doesn't resonate with me. Broadly speaking, since the industrial revolution scientific and technological progress has been about increasing productivity and available energy. This has had profoundly positive effects on our lives but in a developed country it's not obvious that becoming another order of magnitude more productive will automatically lead to people having even better lives. In the advanced…

If in the developed world most policies now are based on the premise that the future is bleak (climate change, war, deficits, ...) then it comes as no surprise that actual progress isn't high on anyone's agenda. Until the future is seen as a land of opportunity again, things will remain bleak.

Curious - many people do see those "problems" as the "opportunity" of our time, just as past generations had their own bleaknesses to overcome.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#24

Post by anovikov » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 7:59 AM UTC

boxed wrote: post #22

safety1st wrote: post #7

His philosophy doesn't resonate with me. Broadly speaking, since the industrial revolution scientific and technological progress has been about increasing productivity and available energy. This has had profoundly positive effects on our lives but in a developed country it's not obvious that becoming another order of magnitude more productive will automatically lead to people having even better lives. In the advanced…

Lack of purpose is the core thing I think. If you have that, then isolation solves itself, and obesity might very well solve itself too. Lack of purpose is also the consequence of not being able to even think of a brighter future. Not seeing what humanity COULD be and working towards it.

Lack of purpose is inevitable and unfixable. In the world where success is infinitely scalable as we are living in the information age, most people are doomed to uselessness no matter what. Trick is how to help them get over it.

Obesity is a medical problem and will be solved by rather trivial medical means very soon, at least on that front, future is bright.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#25

Post by mkoubaa » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 8:08 AM UTC

Natural selection only works if the organism is allowed to die. I think the same is true for institutions and the cultural elite. Part of the stagnation, if you buy it's existence, is a slowing of the rate of death of institutions. I partially buy these arguments but life extension is such a stupid non-goal because it'll only calcify the elite leadership important institutions.

Within a year or two we will have an AI ethics governing body whose members may live to 150. I find that concerning

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#26

Post by dr_dshiv » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 8:10 AM UTC

anovikov wrote: post #24

boxed wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of purpose is the core thing I think. If you have that, then isolation solves itself, and obesity might very well solve itself too. Lack of purpose is also the consequence of not being able to even think of a brighter future. Not seeing what humanity COULD be and working towards it.

Lack of purpose is inevitable and unfixable. In the world where success is infinitely scalable as we are living in the information age, most people are doomed to uselessness no matter what. Trick is how to help them get over it. Obesity is a medical problem and will be solved by rather trivial medical means very soon, at least on that front, future is bright.

>most people are doomed to uselessness no matter what

Well, no mater how smart computers get, mothers will be generally useful to their children. So at least one counter example.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#27

Post by quonn » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 8:13 AM UTC

mkoubaa wrote: post #25

Natural selection only works if the organism is allowed to die. I think the same is true for institutions and the cultural elite. Part of the stagnation, if you buy it's existence, is a slowing of the rate of death of institutions. I partially buy these arguments but life extension is such a stupid non-goal because it'll only calcify the elite leadership important institutions. Within a year or two we will have an AI…

It‘s the Singularity talk from 2009 all over again … Why would they live to 150? They won‘t. They will die with 95, just like everyone else.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#28

Post by RandomLensman » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 8:26 AM UTC

beambot wrote: post #23

RandomLensman wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If in the developed world most policies now are based on the premise that the future is bleak (climate change, war, deficits, ...) then it comes as no surprise that actual progress isn't high on anyone's agenda. Until the future is seen as a land of opportunity again, things will remain bleak.

Curious - many people do see those "problems" as the "opportunity" of our time, just as past generations had their own bleaknesses to overcome.

If you compare, for example, the 1960s view of future with the current - quite a difference. A lot now is about costs to bear and then eventually it might get better. Are there business opportunities in the problems - for sure, but that isn't quite the same as a general bright outlook on the future.

Re: Make the future bright again: On building a new philosophy of progress

#29

Post by safety1st » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 8:28 AM UTC

anovikov wrote: post #24

boxed wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of purpose is the core thing I think. If you have that, then isolation solves itself, and obesity might very well solve itself too. Lack of purpose is also the consequence of not being able to even think of a brighter future. Not seeing what humanity COULD be and working towards it.

Lack of purpose is inevitable and unfixable. In the world where success is infinitely scalable as we are living in the information age, most people are doomed to uselessness no matter what. Trick is how to help them get over it. Obesity is a medical problem and will be solved by rather trivial medical means very soon, at least on that front, future is bright.