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Lessons from Moneyball

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Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#31

Post by idoh »

its_so_on wrote: post #19
gerggerg wrote: post #15

The only real lesson in Moneyball is do what you love and don't let others tell you not to. What I find most interesting about the story is the different effect it has on people. Business types see it as "Take a great risk and it'll pay off (literally)." Science types see it as "Math works". The reality is, you just have to do what you want to do and not care if other people tell you you're crazy. Was a situation lik…

(below may include spoiler) I thought the real lesson was "massively outperform the limits of your shitty resources beyond anyone's expectations, by thinking outside the box and concentrating on algorithms and data modeling; and still not succeed. Then if someone is impressed and offers you more personal compensation than you can imagine, to do the same thing but for them, while actually being given enough resources…

At the end of the movie he was offered millions, but he turned it down to stay close to his family. The lesson from the movie (that deals with putting a price on everything) is that some things are priceless.

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#32

Post by brandnewlow »

its_so_on wrote: post #19
gerggerg wrote: post #15

The only real lesson in Moneyball is do what you love and don't let others tell you not to. What I find most interesting about the story is the different effect it has on people. Business types see it as "Take a great risk and it'll pay off (literally)." Science types see it as "Math works". The reality is, you just have to do what you want to do and not care if other people tell you you're crazy. Was a situation lik…

(below may include spoiler) I thought the real lesson was "massively outperform the limits of your shitty resources beyond anyone's expectations, by thinking outside the box and concentrating on algorithms and data modeling; and still not succeed. Then if someone is impressed and offers you more personal compensation than you can imagine, to do the same thing but for them, while actually being given enough resources…

That whole scene there at the end really killed me. It was not made clear to me why the protagonist made the choice he made. I wonder how he feels watching that scene in the film every time he attends a screening.

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#33

Post by noahnoahnoah »

pron wrote: post #26

I realize this comment may not be popular, but I gotta ask this. How come every burp that comes out of 37signals lands on the front page of HN? (Conformist... Yeah... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4CggHUypjY ) EDIT: I guess I'm just allergic to cults.

(I'm the author of the original post, and obviously I work at 37signals, so feel free to take what I say with a grain of salt.)

Why do posts make it to the front page? Because enough people upvote them, so there must be something that appeals to at least some people. If you have comments on how I could have made this post more interesting or relevant to you, or improvements in my writing style, I'd certainly appreciate hearing them. You can reach me at noah@37signals.com.

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#34

Post by jaredmck »

sachinag wrote: post #10
dionidium wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Billy Beane's shit doesn't work in the playoffs What is this supposed to mean? The season gives you a 162-game sample. The playoffs are a coin-flip, by comparison. It's just too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, which is why both old- and new-school baseball guys have an endless array of cliches about how anybody who makes it in to the playoffs has a chance to win.

It's a reference to a famous essay by Nate Silver (you may know him from FiveThirtyEight at the NYTimes) and Dayn Perry: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=betweenthenu... In short, the A's roster was actually constructed to succeed over 162 games but the compromises he had to make on defense and power pitching to get extra value are particularly fraught in the playoffs, where you're battling the better…

This is not true at all, though - what compromises exactly did they make in power pitching? At most, the team structure would decrease their chances in the playoffs by a few percent. Any analysis based on strictly playoff results is going to be rife with small sample size problems...you can come up with pretty much any conclusion you want based on a sample of a few series.

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#35

Post by akashshah »

brudgers wrote: post #22

The problem with Moneyball as an analogy for web software development is that software development is not a game with a finite pie outcome model, i.e. there isn't a winner for every loser or vice versa. For web software development there isn't even a clear way to determine winners - e.g. market share or brand awareness may trump revenue as a measure of success depending on the purpose for which web development is und…

The term you are looking for is 'zero-sum game'

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#36

Post by n72 »

ssharp wrote: post #11
dionidium wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Billy Beane's shit doesn't work in the playoffs What is this supposed to mean? The season gives you a 162-game sample. The playoffs are a coin-flip, by comparison. It's just too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, which is why both old- and new-school baseball guys have an endless array of cliches about how anybody who makes it in to the playoffs has a chance to win.

I agree. Even a 162-game sample isn't enough to get any great level of confidence, but it is certainly better than a 3-5 game sample of the first round or 4-7 of subsequent rounds. Beane and the A's were mostly focusing on offense, because that's were they could find value. It's significantly harder to find value in pitchers, and pitchers can help damper some of the "luck" factors in the postseason, though it's very…

"Beane and the A's were mostly focusing on offense, because that's were they could find value."

This is not true. One, the big three of Zito, Hudson, and Mulder is one of the best front ends to a pitching staff in baseball history. Moreover, Isringhausen, Bradford, Mecir, and others on that staff were all players undervalued by the traditional ways of evaluating players. They had a team ERA+ 122. That is not a team which is "mostly focussing on offense."

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#37

Post by its_so_on »

brandnewlow wrote: post #32
its_so_on wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(below may include spoiler) I thought the real lesson was "massively outperform the limits of your shitty resources beyond anyone's expectations, by thinking outside the box and concentrating on algorithms and data modeling; and still not succeed. Then if someone is impressed and offers you more personal compensation than you can imagine, to do the same thing but for them, while actually being given enough resources…

That whole scene there at the end really killed me. It was not made clear to me why the protagonist made the choice he made. I wonder how he feels watching that scene in the film every time he attends a screening.

doesn't matter. should have jumped ship. (whatever his motivations for not doing so, the movie makes the lesson clear: it says in the final frames, that he's still trying to win the last game of the season with the A's... Why would they say that? What response would that possible elicit other than "should have gone over to Boston"?) I think the lesson of the movie is clear enough for me :)

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#38

Post by billpatrianakos »

noahnoahnoah wrote: post #33
pron wrote: post #26

I realize this comment may not be popular, but I gotta ask this. How come every burp that comes out of 37signals lands on the front page of HN? (Conformist... Yeah... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4CggHUypjY ) EDIT: I guess I'm just allergic to cults.

(I'm the author of the original post, and obviously I work at 37signals, so feel free to take what I say with a grain of salt.) Why do posts make it to the front page? Because enough people upvote them, so there must be something that appeals to at least some people. If you have comments on how I could have made this post more interesting or relevant to you, or improvements in my writing style, I'd certainly apprecia…

Hey Noah, I can't speak for the OP but I will speak for myself here as I share a similar sentiment. You can't please everyone all the time and I wouldn't expect anyone to start taking advice on how to make a post more relevant to me personally. I would simply find another blog that fits my interests. There are plenty. You know the audience and you did a good job of engaging them. Your writing style is great too. You totally captured the 37Signals voice while still making it your own.

Now, what I was talking about is a pattern I see where posts from particular sources end up here very frequently. When I see that happen I start to wonder if they're here because they truly are great articles or just because they came from a particular source with a lot of clout. There's nothing wrong with this in and of itself, it just makes me wonder if we're starting to give particular sources a free pass, allowing them to ride the wave of their previous successes without really evaluating if the latest article truly is worthy of so much recognition. For me, the test would be to put the same article on an unknown blog and see if people still feel the same way about it.

Please know, that there's nothing about the content or style of your post that I object to at all. My mind just goes off in that direction after seeing any source on the front page very frequently in a short period of time. And you're right that this on the front page because the majority found it appealing. We have a great community here and I trust them to choose what's good. I want to thank you for posting this comment here because it forced me to be honest with myself and ask, "what made me react so negatively/too critically to this post being here?" and while the reason I mentioned earlier is still true I have to admit that there are two less than desirable traits or attitudes that I let slip out.

The first was plain old jealousy. The "I wish I was successful and cool like 37Signals" type jealousy. The second was negativity for negativity's sake. It was like I just had to go against the grain here for the sake of going against the grain. I'm also in a bad mood today which doesn't help. I think I have to admit I was partly just being petty and that's not cool. Rather than delete my previous comment I'll just man up and admit I was letting my inner asshole/troll slip out and maybe others will be able to learn from me and catch themselves when theirs slip out. Anyway, it wasn't a bad post at all and I'm surprised you even took the time to respond to this unwarranted negativity.

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#39

Post by pron »

noahnoahnoah wrote: post #33
pron wrote: post #26

I realize this comment may not be popular, but I gotta ask this. How come every burp that comes out of 37signals lands on the front page of HN? (Conformist... Yeah... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4CggHUypjY ) EDIT: I guess I'm just allergic to cults.

(I'm the author of the original post, and obviously I work at 37signals, so feel free to take what I say with a grain of salt.) Why do posts make it to the front page? Because enough people upvote them, so there must be something that appeals to at least some people. If you have comments on how I could have made this post more interesting or relevant to you, or improvements in my writing style, I'd certainly apprecia…

I'm sorry if I have offended you, that was not my intention. There is nothing terribly wrong with the post. It's fine. That is not the point. My point is that there seems to be a certain cult following to several persons/companies in the industry among HN readers, which doesn't entirely surprise me, but does disappoint me. I think this community should be more free-thinking and not drink anyone's KoolAid. In fact, I'd like to see posts coming from from certain figures given a much more critical treatment than a reverent one. HN is full of useful, insightful critique, but there could be more of it, and we can do away with the unnecessary reverence.

Re: Lessons from Moneyball

#40

Post by noahnoahnoah »

pron wrote: post #39
noahnoahnoah wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I'm the author of the original post, and obviously I work at 37signals, so feel free to take what I say with a grain of salt.) Why do posts make it to the front page? Because enough people upvote them, so there must be something that appeals to at least some people. If you have comments on how I could have made this post more interesting or relevant to you, or improvements in my writing style, I'd certainly apprecia…

I'm sorry if I have offended you, that was not my intention. There is nothing terribly wrong with the post. It's fine. That is not the point. My point is that there seems to be a certain cult following to several persons/companies in the industry among HN readers, which doesn't entirely surprise me, but does disappoint me. I think this community should be more free-thinking and not drink anyone's KoolAid. In fact, I'…

Absolutely no offense taken, and I actually share your desire to avoid KoolAid drinking. Every post should be evaluated on it's merits, and while I can only speak for myself, I hope that things that I write only end up on the front page when they have sufficient merit.
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