Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers • Hacker News Board

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#341

Post by musicale » Mon, Apr 10, 2023, 11:35 PM UTC

marinhero wrote: post #20

reacharavindh wrote: post #5

I think Apple being as big, and making the big technological leap with M1 convinced a lot of customers to buy the new Macs. Even those that technically weren’t needing one/upgrade. Now, that curiosity bubble has saturated with the M2 being an iterative improvement and the customer base certainly not as desperate (intel to M1). Given enough time, I think the Macs will continue to gain market share. Most tech companies…

This makes sense. Amongst my friends, a number of them maxed out an M1 machine not just because of the processor but also because of the improved I/O and new form factor. The M1 machine ticked so many boxes that the purchase decision was not solely pushed by the CPU. The machines are so good it’s hard to justify a new one!

> The machines are so good it’s hard to justify a new one!

I imagine Apple will have to accelerate planned obsolescence (maybe dropping from 7 to 5 years of OS and security updates) to make analysts happy. ;-/

More seriously, I've gotten 7+ years of use out of multiple Apple devices. Though my 2014 iPad Air 2 is probably going to be retired from the internet once iPadOS 15 security updates end.

Also I expect a minor boost for Apple if Apple Silicon based Mac Pro machines (and perhaps pro iMac models?) turn out well.

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#342

Post by makeitdouble » Mon, Apr 10, 2023, 11:38 PM UTC

freeplay wrote: post #279

pcurve wrote: post #139

Here's data. # of Apple shipment. 2019 Q1 - 3.9m 2020 Q1 - 3.1m 2021 Q1 - 6.7m (111.5% increase YoY) 2022 Q1 - 7.0m 2023 Q1 - 4.1m Apple experienced explosive growth in 2021Q1 over 2020 Q1 compared to other PC makers. Lenovo (+59.1%) HP (+64.1%) Dell (+23.4%) Apple (+111.5%) Acer (+73.5%) Where as Lenovo and HP declined ~15% in 2022 Q1, Apple managed to gain 4.5%. So compared others, Apple had more to fall. Looking a…

To be honest, I think it's pretty obvious this has less to do with M1/M2 tech specs and more to do with the vast majority of Americans getting a couple checks from the government which basically cover the exact price of a new Macbook.

These are worldwide shipment numbers.

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#343

Post by makeitdouble » Mon, Apr 10, 2023, 11:45 PM UTC

reacharavindh wrote: post #5

I think Apple being as big, and making the big technological leap with M1 convinced a lot of customers to buy the new Macs. Even those that technically weren’t needing one/upgrade. Now, that curiosity bubble has saturated with the M2 being an iterative improvement and the customer base certainly not as desperate (intel to M1). Given enough time, I think the Macs will continue to gain market share. Most tech companies…

I wonder if we haven't hit the top of the bell curve.

Up until the M1 transition, the macbook 15" (and then 16") were already the defacto machine for any dev in most companies. I had colleagues who had to justify they could use Dell's linux laptops.

As of now it's more of a split, with those who stay on mac, those who move to "gaming" laptops if they rely on x86 or need GPU power, linux laptops which are now fully mature, and those who moved to machines like Lenovo's yoga line or MS Surface. Basically Apple moving away from Intel, freezing the form factor while giving the middle finger to GPU intensive apps opened the door to many other options.

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#344

Post by somewhereoutth » Mon, Apr 10, 2023, 11:46 PM UTC

acdha wrote: post #339

somewhereoutth wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All I know about the green/blue text is the (possibly not real) trope of 'Ugh green [or is it blue?] text! I don't date poors who don't have an iPhone!' At some point there was a big deal being made about Google taking your data and so 'stealing your mind' (can't disagree tbh). However, in attempting to monetize your base urges, I would respond that Apple is trying to steal your soul! (no longer any affiliation to ei…

The green/blue text thing is like kids getting ostracized for not having the right sneakers in school – it’s happened but it’s just telling you that terrible people exist, and it’s the perfect clickbait story for people to shake their heads at. The reason why it stayed in the news was that last year Google made a big lobbying push trying to get governments to force Apple to open the service to Android since Google pu…

Well in the end nobody (outside of the US?) uses text messages anymore (at least, not socially). It's all Whatsapp, FB Messenger, Telegram, Signal... (honestly I can't keep up)

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#345

Post by Dalewyn » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 12:24 AM UTC

Tagbert wrote: post #332

Dalewyn wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>M1 was released in November 2020, less than three years ago. How the hell are we supposed to be on M3 now? Marketing. Consider why Chrome and Firefox increase their major version number every release for the smallest change now. When Intel and AMD are both bumping up their version numbers every year or two, Apple sitting on M1 for three years looks out of fashion to the simpler people. This isn't to say Apple (nor I…

Those aren't really major version numbers. Those are release numbers. Chrome and Firefox are not using semantic versioning anymore.

They are major version numbers, for example the latest Firefox is v111.0.1 and Chromium is v114.0.5708.0.

Yes, the most miniscule of minor changes is reflected with lower-level version numbers, but the major version number still gets bumped up for next to no reason other than marketing.

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#346

Post by jlokier » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 12:58 AM UTC

kofejnik wrote: post #325

jlokier wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true for the memory (RAM), but not the storage (SSD). Socketed SSDs are just as fast and almost as light as soldered, and there is no good technical reason why they shouldn't be upgradable for a long time. I'm in the market for a new Mac. I'm currently using a late 2013 15-inch Retina as my trusty friend. If the M2 Max came with socketed SSD I'd buy it today with the 96GB RAM and max spec in every other regard…

an external usb-c m2 enclosure is amazingly fast and only $20 or so

Good point. That might be the way to go. Thanks for the suggestion.

I hadn't thought of it, as older USB drives (ie. my experience, 2013 MBP) are much slower for large data than the internal storage, some of my work is storage I/O performance constrained, and I don't want to carry around yet another dongle. But the price differential vs Apple built-in and flexibility/upgradability, at current USB4 speeds makes a compelling case.

(I read anout significant differences between M1 and M2 for some flavours of USB storage link speed, which might persuade me to opt for the M2 after all.)

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#347

Post by Godel_unicode » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 1:24 AM UTC

panick21_ wrote: post #333

Godel_unicode wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It would not require a lot of changes. It would require Apple to stop being Apple. Give up their App Store revenue (Steam) and give up their proprietary 3D API in favor of a standard? Might as well ask for a Start button.

Not really. Supporting standard 3D API on that hardware wouldn't be that hard. They don't have that much different hardware that supporting a driver for it would be that difficult. > Give up their App Store revenue They are not giving up anything they currently earn, they would be adding sales of hardware and games. They could make a deal with Steam or make their own steam and make it easy for Games to port their gam…

> wouldn't be that hard.

What are you basing that on? They’ve spent a lot of time talking about how optimized the hardware and software are for each other, why are you so sure that getting equivalent performance and efficiency would be easy? Consider how trash MoltenVK is compared to Metal. About the best you can say is that it technically works.

> not giving up anything they currently earn

That’s not how Apple thinks. If they cut someone else in, especially a behemoth like Steam, they’re signing away their ability to do Apple Arcade for MacOS in the future. Look at the whole Kindle vs Apple Books fiasco, they’re never going to let someone else in the pool again. They won’t even let the XCloud game streaming app on.

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#348

Post by natpalmer1776 » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 2:59 AM UTC

Maursault wrote: post #318

hbn wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also people that didn't need to upgrade their machines upgraded anyway cause the M1 jump was so significant. I was supplied a decently-specced late-2019 16-inch i9 MBP for work when I started in mid-2020. Basically about the best Intel MBP that ever got released. Then the M1's came, I got a 14-inch base model M1 Pro (which I calculate to have cost about 1/2 the price work paid for my machine) and it runs circles arou…

> Also people that didn't need to upgrade their machines upgraded anyway cause the M1 jump was so significant. People keep perpetuating this myth, but the only significant jump in performance from x86 was with the Air. With all other models, it was always as Apple does with new models, and what we should have come to expect (yet we always expect more for some reason and there is always disappointment at the performan…

Yeah, it’s not really raw performance that is excels at, rather the tight integration of the entire platform that gives a much better experience overall. My code compiles in about the same amount of time as on an i7, but apps open faster, switching programs while a ton of apps are open doesn’t cause momentary pauses, and overall the platform feels much more responsive.

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#349

Post by senttoschool » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 3:31 AM UTC

dwighttk wrote: post #50

senttoschool wrote: post #3

What is most surprising here is that Apple's share growth is worse than other PC makers. It seemed like Apple was going to continue to gain market share in PCs with Apple Silicon effortlessly. But this didn't happen in Q1. I'm going to speculate why: * People are going back to buying cheaper laptops due to the economy, inflation, and exchange rates. Apple suffers in this environment because they're generally less fle…

>assuming they want to release a new gen every year Why would one assume that?

* An Apple executive said recently that they want to release a huge upgrade every year. They don't want to hold back.[0]

* M1 used A14. M2 used A15 (even though A16 was already out). This seems to suggest that Apple wants to make use of every A series iteration. The A series gets a new gen every year.

* It seems to make sense business-wise that the base M will at least get upgraded once a year. It isn't too much more effort since the iPhone funds most of the development. The base M chip goes into the following: Macbook Air 13", Macbook Air 15"(expected to come out in a few months), iPad Pro 13", iPad Pro 11", iMac, Mac Mini, iPad Air. It's valuable to update these devices once a year.

* We weren't in "normal" years. Covid, supply chain issues, work from home, gigantic demand followed by demand collapse like contributed to delays.

[0]https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/06/apple-execs-on-m2-chips-wi...

Re: Apple’s plunge in PC shipments is steepest among major computer makers

#350

Post by dagmx » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 4:14 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #326

fabian2k wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://geizhals.de/lenovo-ideapad-5-pro-16ach6-storm-grey-8... That's the one I have, or at least similar. It's obviously not the same as a MacBook, but the screen is a 16:10 high-resolution, though not Retina one with good quality. People care about different things, and Full HD screens at ~14-15" is perfectly fine for many people. And you can get that for even cheaper than what I mentioned.

Pretty substantial difference in CPU performance. MacBook Pro 14: https://browser.geekbench.com/v5/cpu/21032882 AMD Ryzen 7: https://browser.geekbench.com/v5/cpu/21032882

Fwiw both your links are the same.