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What it feels like to work in AI right now

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Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#461
post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, that’s exactly what it’s being used for — hallucination.

Can you elaborate on this? Or are you just being cheeky?

When you use it for brainstorming, hallucination is not that big of a deal - you need to verify ideas anyway. And it's great at "thinking" outside of the box, if you prompt it right.

Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#462
post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You couldn’t be further from the truth. This is the single greatest leap in productivity we’ve had in the last 100 years. Last week, I used GPT-4 to write my code. Later, I used it to analyze 100+ websites and come up with a personalized pitch for a relevant plugin/product idea - something that would have taken me 100+ hours.

If it makes you feel better (or worse?). I am using it daily and extensively. It is a productivity boost but not something that will propel me to god-level and the more I use it (Codex in particular) the more I discover its limitations; and that's where my conclusion has came from: It is too limited beyond the local scope it has. It is not clear (and there are no indications) it can make a jump from that local scope.

It seems then that it's usefulness depends on the intersection of what you want/need to do, what the model is capable of doing, and what you're capable of getting the model to do.

In some cases the impact might be enormous, and in others perhaps less so. One thing is for sure, the models are getting more capable, and along with that people are investing time/effort/money into improving their capability to leverage what the models can do.

Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#463
post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically you've proven you have no value add over GPT-4 by choosing to use it to complete your tasks.

That seems like it supports his point pretty well. If he can use it to basically replace most of his work, then it doesn't seem like a bubble at all

1000x this.

Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#464

From my perspective it’s just _confusing_ to work in AI right now. We have some massive models that are doing some really neat stuff, and apparently hundreds of millions of people are using them—but I keep wondering: to do _what_, exactly? I’m not asking what the models can do, I’m asking what people want the models to do every day, all the time. I’ve been shown some neat pictures people made that they thought were c…

It's just a glorified google search. You'd save more time googling what you need and picking 2-3 results to read briefly. People have no clue human intelligence has very little to do with "statistical analysis of old data".

It can't replace search, actually. It doesn't know everything a decent search engine can find, and might not even remember the specific php command line parameter you're looking for.

What it can do is reason some pretty tricky interdisciplinary answers. It's about as useful as having an intern that's finished literally every white collar college out there but has no idea what they're doing. It takes some prompting to get useful work out of it but it is possible and it is very effective when you get it right.

The $20 sub has saved me quite a bit of time, the main challenge is remembering to set it to GPT4 for every damn conversation, as the previous models are trash.

Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#465

From my perspective it’s just _confusing_ to work in AI right now. We have some massive models that are doing some really neat stuff, and apparently hundreds of millions of people are using them—but I keep wondering: to do _what_, exactly? I’m not asking what the models can do, I’m asking what people want the models to do every day, all the time. I’ve been shown some neat pictures people made that they thought were c…

In the content space. There's whole publishing industries that are at risk from GPT style models.

Would reddit, or HN still be interesting if there were bots that talked in the popular tone of the subreddit or thread that dominated the conversation?

AI's effect will be like pollution to our culture. It'll speed up and help alot of things and be very helpful generally. But It will create problems in 'human' spaces.

Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#466
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taking into account the downsides it looks like a hype bubble right now to me, and a draw in the long run. There’s just a whole lot of tech people trying to cash in on the hype. Techies will realize that they are just giving ideas to O̶p̶e̶n̶AI.com, Microsoft Word, Google Docs and Notion. It is just the same AI bros re-selling their hallucinating snake oil chatbot that are under a new narrative for AI. There is a r…

English speakers tend to miss a huge use case: Translation.

A 'use-case' done worse with LLMs especially with reliability. Translation is already done without a hallucinating LLM and can be done offline.

Summarization of existing text is the *only* safe and serious use-case for LLMs.

Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#467

From my perspective it’s just _confusing_ to work in AI right now. We have some massive models that are doing some really neat stuff, and apparently hundreds of millions of people are using them—but I keep wondering: to do _what_, exactly? I’m not asking what the models can do, I’m asking what people want the models to do every day, all the time. I’ve been shown some neat pictures people made that they thought were c…

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Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#468
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it stand to reason that LLMs should be obsolete in about a year due to the singularity event and the rapid speed which we're moving towards AGI and then onto exponential technology growth due to ASI? At this point, as an AI researcher, I guess you'd just have to sit back and watch is all unfold, very soon everything you do is obsolete almost immediately.

This suggests that LLM is the path to take us to AGI. There is no proof for that. That seems to be the current bet, but my thinking (and it is strictly mine) that we are still technologically under-powered to achieve such a leap. Maybe in 10 years, or in one year or in a hundred of years. However, for that leap (and strictly my opinion), we need significant infrastructure leaps. Something like processors are x100 fas…

Three observations here. Firstly it has been a really eye opening experience watching the innovation around Stable Diffusion and locally run LLMs and seeing that the unoptimized research code that needed such beefy hardware could actually be optimized to run on consumer hardware given sufficient motivation.

Secondly it wasn't obvious that deep learning was going to work as well as it did if you simply threw enough compute at it. Now that this tech has reached critical mass there is a tonne more money being poured into infra to support it.

Lastly, compute power is increasing as always. Nvidia releasing H100 and also their recent work on computational lithography. Also DeepMind finding new state-of-the-art algorithms for doing matrix multiplication with AlphaTensor. You can kinda already see the positive feedback loop in action.

I dunno... at this point I just wouldn't bet against the trajectory that we're on.

Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re asking “what’s so big about GUIs? Literally nobody has asked to move a pointer around a screen”. It’s the use cases these thing enable that are important. Today, I wrote a draft product announcement. Only after I was done did I realize I had written it in a really impersonal third person (“users will be able to”). No big deal, but maybe 10-20 minutes of work to make it energetic and second person (“now you can…

I mean Google revolutionized search. Apple revolutionized personal computing. OpenAI revolutionized… rewriting things with slightly different wording? I’ve seen so many breathless people posting “this would have taken me so long to search” and then I type 3 keywords from their massive prompt they crafted and find it instantly on Google. We’re talking 1000x or more faster. I feel like the same is happening in your com…

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Re: What it feels like to work in AI right now

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Who’s gonna trust a human doctor to diagnose their stuff if the human brain holds 9 things and the AI holds thousands?" The human brain can hold much more than 9 things and even though AI will be used in medicine broadly very soon, I really want the final diagnosis done by a human. Once true AGI arrieves, I might change my opinion, but that might take a while.

> AI will be used in medicine broadly very soon We have been hearing this since forever. Revolutions do happen but not the way we expect. My anecdotical experience: no one in my team of about 30 people developing SW uses ChatGPT or similar in their day to day. This may change, or not.

AI is being used in medicine already. For example, in diagnostics. Most new diagnostics devices (e.g. CT scan, cardiograms) include AI systems that suggest an interpretation and point towards possible problems that a doctor might occasionally miss.

Granted, currently deployed systems are mostly awful, way behind the state of the art, and therefore mostly useless. Maybe it's because designing medical devices and getting them approved takes so long. Maybe it's because the manufacturers put AI in there for marketing purposes only, while assuming nobody will use the suggestiona anyway. In any case, I strongly expect the trend to continue and these systems to become very useful quite soon.

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