China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech • Hacker News Board

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#551

Post by foverzar » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 3:45 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #529

paganel wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And? Do you want Xi Xinping in charge of global culture, security, finance? Why not? Granted, I'm not an American. I haven't heard any Chinese Foreign minister goading of having killed hundreds of thousands of kids the same way as the US did [1], so why shouldn't the rest of the world give China a chance instead of the US? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1OAD9jSaI

I guessing you haven't read much of Chinese history? They killed tens of millions of their own people. If the choice is between the US or China running the world, I'll pick the US, every. single. time.

> I guessing you haven't read much of Chinese history

Objectively speaking, the US history of genocide, slavery and global warfare and terrorist sponsorship even before becoming an uncontested hegemony hardly makes it look better.

> If the choice is between the US or China running the world, I'll pick the US, every. single. time.

Sure, but I would bet that you might just be privileged enough to live nearby the US inner economic circle.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#552

Post by somenameforme » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 3:47 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #539

somenameforme wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, the vast majority of all oil is traded in USD, not just the Mideast. As one example of the impact, take Canada. Their exchange rate against the USD is driven almost entirely by crude oil prices (of which they are a large exporter). The reason for this is that when oil prices are high they end up with a large supply of USD. And so the price of the Canadian dollar increases because, compared to the dollar, it's…

Even if you assuming 100% of all oil is traded in USD that’s still only ~8 billion dollars a day. As to US Canada currency that relationship would be mathematically identical if oil was traded in Canadian dollars rather than USD with the exact same changes to each currency as oil’s value spiked. It’s a result of the balance of trade not the specific commodity being exchanged let alone the currency the transaction was…

The average gross trade of just raw oil products is somewhere in the $1 trillion ballpark, total trade overall several times that. It doesn't really matter much either way, as it's the "value" of oil that matters, not the price. When you are able to lock a door that everybody wants in, your key is priceless. The value of oil doesn't spike, its price does - primarily due to OPEC manipulation or yet another US Mideast invasion.

You're absolutely right that balance of trade plays a part in this, but not in the assumption that the currency is irrelevant. If countries were paying Canada in CAD instead of USD, then Canada's reserves of CAD would be constantly increasing while the rest of the world's would be decreasing. The CAD would become extremely strong, extremely quickly. The realistic scenario is that countries would simply stop buying oil from Canada because of this, but if they couldn't (for instance if Canada somehow convinced oil seller's to sell only in CAD...) then the result would be a never-ending and effectively uncapped appreciation of the CAD, subject only to the discretion of Canada itself.

This is literally exactly what happened with the ruble. Russia used to sell their oil in the USD. After we did our sanctions stuff trying to tank their economy, they started selling oil only in the ruble. And the value of their currency not only immediately reversed all of the sanctions inflected weakening, but rapidly became even stronger than before they invaded. It led them to the bizarre scenario of having to actually have to try to weaken their currency, while facing 'nuclear' sanctions, to make sure they didn't (as above) price themselves out of the oil market, by having too strong a currency.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#553

Post by another_story » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 3:50 PM UTC

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #510

another_story wrote: post #499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, it would be a major step for other countries to decide that Taiwan no longer legally belongs to China. What one means by belongs to China is another matter. Not saying you have, but people will conflate the government of China with China. Taiwan does not belong the current ruling government of China and you will not find many governments which say so.

In terms of international law, the distinction you're drawing between China and the PRC is irrelevant. Legally speaking, Taiwan was recognized as part of China. The fact that there was a revolution in China does not change that, legally speaking. If such a principle were to be accepted, that a country's territory is called into question every time there's a revolution, it would open a Pandora's box. Recognizing Taiwa…

According to whose international law? The distinction is at the heart of the issue depending which country you ask.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#554

Post by Herval_freire » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 3:51 PM UTC

peterfirefly wrote: post #535

Herval_freire wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Get over your Trump Derangement Syndrome, please. There are other, more recent and more fitting examples you could choose if you want to use a specific politician. You could also have used research that shows that people in general support or reject policies based on what party they think came up with them and not based on the (sometimes quite obvious ahead of time) consequences of those policies.

Except this isn't true. Trump was voted into power by the lower middle class simply for having rhetoric that was different from the status quo. He was "real" and his style largely resonated with an america who was tired of politicians acting fake and tired of digging through all the complexity of the economy and politics to figure out what was wrong with the country that caused them to work two jobs just to support themselves.

Trump instead lowered taxes for the rich. He was one of the rich, and he served himself. It was his rhetoric and dramatic conversational style that essentially caused people to unknowingly vote against their self interest.

I apologize for using the word "stupid" here. People and voters aren't stupid. Trump, however, was indeed an example of people not using the best strategy in the name of their self interest.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#555

Post by Retric » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:07 PM UTC

somenameforme wrote: post #552

Retric wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you assuming 100% of all oil is traded in USD that’s still only ~8 billion dollars a day. As to US Canada currency that relationship would be mathematically identical if oil was traded in Canadian dollars rather than USD with the exact same changes to each currency as oil’s value spiked. It’s a result of the balance of trade not the specific commodity being exchanged let alone the currency the transaction was…

The average gross trade of just raw oil products is somewhere in the $1 trillion ballpark, total trade overall several times that. It doesn't really matter much either way, as it's the "value" of oil that matters, not the price. When you are able to lock a door that everybody wants in, your key is priceless. The value of oil doesn't spike, its price does - primarily due to OPEC manipulation or yet another US Mideast…

Annual numbers are irrelevant due to the concept of velocity of money.

You can use the same physical 20$ dollar bill to buy a soda several times over a year. You hand it to the 7-11 on Monday, they take it to the bank on Tuesday, the bank puts it into their ATM on Wednesday, you get out of the ATM on Thursday, and then take it back to that same 7-11 on Friday.

Digital currency can cycle the same way just faster. Mexico Joe trades peso’s for OilBucks from Dubai Bank at 9:00AM, use them to buy oil from someone in Bolivia at 9:01. At 9:02 Frank in France trades Euros to Bolivia Co at 9:02 to get those same Oil Bucks for a trade at 9:03 with someone in Saudi Arabia…

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#556

Post by Retric » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:18 PM UTC

WillPostForFood wrote: post #379

Retric wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by we you mean the US then we don’t. The US has effectively zero direct dependence on middle eastern oil due to domestic production and transportation costs. Canada is much closer and has a lot of oil. Where it matters is they can impact the global prices and thus what people pay at the pump. Though the actual profits from such spikes in American gas prices end up going to suppliers in America or Canada.

We get ~12% of our oil from the middle east which is consequential but not what I meant. You'll note that after Biden called Saudi Arabia a Pariah state, he was forced to reverse course and head over, hat in hand, and beg for more production. Not because of the 12% (or 10% or 8%), we directly consume, but because of the impact on inflation and the world economy. So yes, we are beholden to middle east oil, not because…

It’s 2.6% not 12%.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc...

“About 9% of U.S. total petroleum imports and 9% of U.S. crude oil imports were from Persian Gulf countries in 2021.” However the US produces 20 Billion barrels of oil vs 8 Billion barrels of imports. So that 9% is really 9% * (8B / (8B + 20B)) = 2.6% of the US’s total oil supply.

Further that 8 Billion barrels of imports almost exactly equals our 8 Billion barrels of exports. There are many reasons to imports and export oil over the course of a year for example seasonal demand varies, but if it goes to 0 we can also stop our exports.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#557

Post by foverzar » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:19 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #284

pm90 wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. Everyone wants a bogeyman. It’s great for Nationalism and Politicians who can blame someone else. Strong economic ties are the only way to align interests and prevent destructive wars.

That worked so well for Russia and the West.

It took almost two decades of continued effort of toe-stepping and pinching various pain points to get where we are now, so quite well enough actually.

Even now all parties are restrained and make deals: Ukraine still pumps Russian gas to Europe, receiving payments from Russia.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#558

Post by SV_BubbleTime » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:19 PM UTC

data-abuse wrote: post #509

SkyMarshal wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reason why the US doesn't like China is because the US dislikes the idea of being the #2 economy and losing control. This comment gets thrown around a lot but oversimplifies things. First, in the 90s, 2000s, and some of the 2010s ‘the US’ was China’s biggest cheerleader, investor, and supporter. Most US elites knew China would eventually become a bigger economy due to their 4x larger population, and were ok wit…

This is close, but the specific verbiage that US leaders hoped for is that China would liberalize and transition to a democracy. In the 2010s, it became clear it wouldn't happen when Xi stepped into the position that he is in today. The US likes dealing with democracies because the US has so much know how in how to influence elections. The government and CIA has a long history of meddling in elections to get the outc…

>The US likes dealing with democracies because the US has so much know how in how to influence elections. The government and CIA has a long history of meddling in elections to get the outcome that is most beneficial for the US.

Foreign elections only though. They would never steer or nudge the people here that would end up being their supervisors. We know that doesn't happen.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#559

Post by fspeech » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:21 PM UTC

SkyMarshal wrote: post #460

snehk wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason why the US doesn't like China is because the US dislikes the idea of being the #2 economy and losing control. The US has absolutely no "morals" so to say and is allied with/provides literal military support to about 70% of dictatorships[1]. The US simply acts out of national interests, not morals. History proves this. I'm baffled by how many Americans repeat state propaganda points. [1] https://truthout.or…

> The reason why the US doesn't like China is because the US dislikes the idea of being the #2 economy and losing control. This comment gets thrown around a lot but oversimplifies things. First, in the 90s, 2000s, and some of the 2010s ‘the US’ was China’s biggest cheerleader, investor, and supporter. Most US elites knew China would eventually become a bigger economy due to their 4x larger population, and were ok wit…

"First, in the 90s, 2000s, and some of the 2010s ‘the US’ was China’s biggest cheerleader, investor, and supporter."

Sounds a bit revisionist. Maybe you don't remember what Clinton called Bush Sr during his campaign. Back then the normal trade tariff was called "Most Favored Nation" status, a concept developed by the US in the 19th century and brought to Japan and China with gunboat diplomacy. China's status was reviewed annually by Congress and some members perennially threatened to take it away. So there was an annual wave of lobby effort on show to keep the status coupled with sweeteners from China like deals to buy Boeings etc. So they renamed MFN to PNTR to make it sound more innocuous, which it was. Only with Chinese accession to the WTO did the practice end. When Bush Jr. got into office, everyone was expecting him to get tougher on China, when Chinese GDP was one tenth of US. But then 9/11 happened.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#560

Post by beebmam » Thu, Apr 06, 2023, 4:31 PM UTC

sirsinsalot wrote: post #481

beebmam wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is a state entity where its representatives are elected, and those representatives make the policy decisions on what nations get financial support for their militaries. To claim that these representatives don't make their decisions based on morality, or any other value that individuals have, is strictly false. One might argue that only individuals who have opinions in line with national interests are electable…

Incompetence, greed and moralistic propaganda sure can masquerade as a functioning democracy.

Is your claim that the US is not a functioning democracy? Would you be willing to offer definitions of what you mean by "functioning" and "democracy"? Many people use the word "democracy" when they mean "democratic republic".