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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#521

Post by kelnos »

somenameforme wrote: post #387
jacquesm wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A non democratic country has fewer checks and balances on these things than the ones that do. But you are right, that's not a guarantee at all. Just a matter of degree.

In the US both tariffs and sanctions can be (and are) unilaterally imposed by the president. Sanctions are crystal clear thanks to the IEEPA [1]. The president needs only declare an emergency, which is typically done in the exact same executive order imposing the sanctions. We're currently under at least 42 different national "emergencies", of which 34 are to impose sanctions. [2] The legal basis for tariffs is less…

But also consider that an act of Congress could modify IEEPA or repeal a specific tariff or sanction that the US president enacts. Perhaps that's a rare event, but those checks and balances are in place.

In China, Xi can decide to impose tariffs or sanctions, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#522

Post by somenameforme »

vkou wrote: post #419
tw1984 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You need to look at the bigger picture. The big picture is that the US needs middle east countries to price their oil in USD. Everything else is just a bonus.

The world's USD-settled oil trade is a tiny fraction of overall USD-settled trade. The petrodollar is an interesting theory, but it doesn't really hold up to very much scrutiny.

Imagine you created a new currency in the US: FidoBucks. Not even a crypto but a regular currency you can print at your whim. Obviously nobody's really going to want your currency and it will have zero value. But now imagine, after some backdoor deals, you make it such that FidoBucks are literally the only currency accepted at gas stations. And not only that both those gas stations agree to spend any extra profits they make buying in FidoBuck denominated treasuries. Now not only are people going to want your currency, but they will literally need it.

And since FidoBucks are now directly tied to access of a critical commodity, it will have also have a guaranteed minimum "value" that's tied to the cost of oil. So people can feel pretty comfortable holding and trading Fidobucks. In fact the new stability of your currency means you'd likely see people starting to trade it for far more than oil, to the point that gas becomes just a fraction of its trade.

This is essentially what the petrodollar did, but it of course started from a far higher point than zero of course. Once we ended the fixed convertibility of the USD to gold in 1971 [1], demand in the dollar started rapidly declining, and its relative value began decreasing. After the petrodollar this all reversed, hard. It's to assign a specific value to any of these changes, because it's all dynamic - just like in our simplified FidoBucks example so much would depend on the dynamic scarcity of gas, how many FidoBucks you print, the total value of outside trade, and a million other variables. What is safe to say is that it dramatically strengthened the position of the currency, and is a large reason that until extremely recently, if China and Russia were trading - they'd settle that trade in USD. Now they're trying to create the next FidoBuck backed by a combination of land, gold, and other finite resources.

[1] - https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#523

Post by lmm »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #452
lmm wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the US is shifting away from the One China policy. That shift is deeply alarming the Chinese government. There doesn't seem to be anyone in American politics who is capable of pressing the breaks, slowing down the drive towards confrontation, and reengaging in real diplomacy with China. Funny, from this side it looks like the opposite: the US is shifting towards greate…

The timeline of how tensions have risen is very clear. The Trump administration began taking steps to undermine the One China policy, such as Trump holding an official call with the Taiwanese president, and calling for Taiwan to be included in international organizations that normally only accept sovereign states. Pelosi's trip was another major milestone, because it breaks the US' promise not to maintain official di…

> The timeline of how tensions have risen is very clear. The Trump administration began...

Disagree, tensions were already rising well before that. In particular Xi Jinping made a big call for reunification in 2014, which likely lead to a more vigorously pro-independence party being elected in Taiwan in 2016. Closer cooperation with the US followed from that.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#524

Post by matthewdgreen »

_8j50 wrote: post #359
klodolph wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am less convinced that China is really good at playing the long game, and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles that we see in the US. It’s just so easy to tap into our fears of China that we want to believe that they’re this smart and ruthless. We look for evidence to validate our feelings. There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more depos…

Whether china is good at the long game is the wrong question. They are obviously playing that game, they have even planned out the whole thing in "the 100 year marathon". The right question is if any of their democratic competitors are even in the game at all given their regular planned regime changes (elections) and multiple competing political parties. Even if china sucks at it, they win by default if there is no o…

I think it’s very important to point out here that historically speaking, no autocracy has ever outperformed the democratic West on any economic or military measure over the long term. There have been periods where it seemed like managed economies were on the rise (see even the USSR during the 1950s and 60s) but this growth tailed off due to, in many cases, serious unforced errors that the autocratic political system couldn’t address. There are a lot of possible explanations for this, but the obvious one is that democracies can course-correct. We get plenty of bad leaders as well, but in the long term we replace them. Autocratic nations can have great leadership sometimes, but they can also get stuck with Mao for decades. All evidence seems to indicate that China is reverting away from a period of dynamic leadership and moving back to a period where party officials are chosen based on loyalty to one aging man, rather than their competence. Speaks to bad things ahead for China, maybe for all of us too.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#525

Post by Retric »

somenameforme wrote: post #522
vkou wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world's USD-settled oil trade is a tiny fraction of overall USD-settled trade. The petrodollar is an interesting theory, but it doesn't really hold up to very much scrutiny.

Imagine you created a new currency in the US: FidoBucks. Not even a crypto but a regular currency you can print at your whim. Obviously nobody's really going to want your currency and it will have zero value. But now imagine, after some backdoor deals, you make it such that FidoBucks are literally the only currency accepted at gas stations. And not only that both those gas stations agree to spend any extra profits th…

Total worldwide production of oil is only ~90 million barrels/day and middle eastern production is a fraction of that. That’s not very significant compared to the total value of all USD in circulation. All FidoBucks in circulation might only be worth ~50 Billion in your example and depending on the velocity of money could actually be significantly less. People might start using it for other things, but it’s just as likely to be an odd quark of the oil market.

What actually props up the USD is the US taxes being paid in USD. Even transactions like selling burgers for Bitcoins suddenly force someone to not only get dollars to pay their taxes on that sale but set it aside for significant periods. This is the basic mechanism which forces all fiat money to have value, which then causes it to be used for loans and whatnot which further increases value.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#526

Post by varispeed »

serf wrote: post #292
varispeed wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don't want to try and make things, so they are unaware how incredibly f we are. Like I have little project and needed an enclosure made to order. Nothing fancy. Tried three rather known Western vendors and none could manufacture it to an acceptable standard. It was also very expensive and customer service seemed annoyed that I even want to order anything. I lost a lot of money on this, simply because I di…

>So it's China again. Amazing customer service, advanced options, short lead times. This falls apart quickly when you come up with a product that would profit others through mimicry. Those local manufacturers suddenly become a lot less expensive when you're cruising through Alibaba and you see the product you designed for sale in multiple colors at 2/3rds the cost you could have ever hoped to sell them for, through m…

There are trade offs of course. But from mechanical point of view, my project is simple enough that I am sure someone determined could just recreate it in CAD in a couple of days anyway and send to manufacturer of their own.

I think if product can be copied easily, then it will be copied. It's just a fact of life.

What can't be (easily) copied is the firmware. Someone determined could still do clean room implementation anyway.

The more complex and innovative your project is, the more time you can sell it for premium until someone copies it.

On one hand this is good, because it forces people to innovate on the other hand it makes projects less profitable in the long run.

That being said if you have your marketing and price right, your target audience is unlikely going to choose a cheap copy and those who do probably wouldn't be your customers anyway.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#527

Post by refurb »

snehk wrote: post #401
jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

The reason why the US doesn't like China is because the US dislikes the idea of being the #2 economy and losing control. The US has absolutely no "morals" so to say and is allied with/provides literal military support to about 70% of dictatorships[1]. The US simply acts out of national interests, not morals. History proves this. I'm baffled by how many Americans repeat state propaganda points. [1] https://truthout.or…

I agree with your point that the US has no "morals", but that's pretty much any country. It's almost 100% self-interest, hence the geopolitical theory of "realpolitik" - pragmatism over everything else.

That said, I disagree the US doesn't like China because it will be the #2 economy. The US doesn't care about that. What it cares about is a potentially hostile power.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#528

Post by kelipso »

hepinhei wrote: post #488
senttoschool wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

They negotiated a lot in Tiananmen Square, Hong Kong more recently and Taiwan in the near future. Imagine the Capitol attack in China, it would be a massacre

China has nuclear weapons, so obviously direct attacks on China are inadvisable. Same rules don't apply to countries without nukes.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#529

Post by refurb »

paganel wrote: post #451
zpeti wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reason why the US doesn't like China is because the US dislikes the idea of being the #2 economy and losing control And? Do you want Xi Xinping in charge of global culture, security, finance? How is that working out for your average Chinese these days (and I’m not talking about the previous freeer era). You want social credit scores? One man basically in charge of the global military? You paint a picture of Ame…

> And? Do you want Xi Xinping in charge of global culture, security, finance? Why not? Granted, I'm not an American. I haven't heard any Chinese Foreign minister goading of having killed hundreds of thousands of kids the same way as the US did [1], so why shouldn't the rest of the world give China a chance instead of the US? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1OAD9jSaI

I guessing you haven't read much of Chinese history? They killed tens of millions of their own people.

If the choice is between the US or China running the world, I'll pick the US, every. single. time.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#530

Post by KyleBerezin »

This issue has been a long time coming and China has warned us about it at least 10 years ago (probably longer). We used to have a mine in California called Mountain pass mine, but it had a toxic spill in the early 00's and never reopened due to Chinese competition.

There were plans to reactivate the mine, and it looks like it is now producing more than 12% of the worlds production (https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-rare-earth...)

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