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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#271

Post by Aunche »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #146
nonethewiser wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

>We’re much closer than we were 20 years

After the collapse of the Soviet Union settled, it has been the most peaceful time in human history (at least for semi-developed nations). A moderate amount of hostility is to be expected as China has approached superpower status. This is still no where near Cold War levels.

>Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine

This was always a possibility after Crimea. People just assumed that Putin wasn't stupid enough to through with it.

>nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong.

Ever since the British gave up Hong Kong, China has agreed that they will allow it to be autonomous until 2047. We're already at the half way point, so China is slowly tightening it's grip on them.

One big difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is that Russia shares a large land border with it. Traditional wisdom dictates that you need at least 1 troop for every 40 inhabitants, which is over half a million for Taiwan. China simply does not have the navy to move that number of personale. If they ever hope to invade Taiwan, they would have to prepare for a D-Day level of operation, which would be immediately obvious to intelligence.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#272

Post by uejfiweun »

pimlottc wrote: post #247
rednerrus wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It lead to the longest era of peace and prosperity in the history of the world.

I think it's safer to say it /concurred with/ the longest era of peace and prosperity in the history of the world.

Yes. The long peace in my view was more so caused by the invention of nuclear weapons which drastically lowered the incentive for war, forward-thinking decision makers who constructed a reasonably stable alliance between great powers, and mass communications technologies allowing for greater control and integration of populations.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#273

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

Symbiote wrote: post #229
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo. However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the US is shifting away from the One China policy. That shift is deeply alarming the Chinese government. There doesn't seem to be anyone in American politics who is capable of pressing the breaks, slowing down the drive towards confrontation, and reengaging in real diplomacy with China. In the end, t…

So if China invades Taiwan, it's Americas fault really? Ridiculous.

While I don’t think America would be to blame for a war started by China, as an outsider, I think it has to be noted that America under Biden has been diplomatically rather aggressive and variably trustworthy. It’s fairly obvious than the whole alliance of democracies against authoritarianism is a paper thin cover for "countries which serve the US interests" and both include countries which don’t promote liberal values and exclude countries which do.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#274

Post by uejfiweun »

klodolph wrote: post #252
joecool1029 wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles Who's going to vote their government out or jam things up with filibuster? For better or worse their government just 'does'. You cannot seriously compare a system like this to US/UK democracy paralyzation during things like COVID. I do not think their system is better or worse, it's just not subject to any kind of politics internally th…

> I do not think their system is better or worse, it's just not subject to any kind of politics internally that would get in the way of whatever the hell their national intentions of the now are. If you are arguing that the Communist Party of China is not subject to internal politics, I don’t think that argument will withstand much scrutiny. Think about how much internal politics there are within the Democratic party…

I think the distinction the parent is trying to make is that China's system is not subject to checks and balances (aka 'politics') that intentionally slow down the operations of government. Of course, any human organization will deal with organizational politics such as backstabbing and ladder-climbers. But in terms of national politics to decide policy, it's really just under full control of Xi.

There are pros and cons to each approach. The US system is certainly slower and more infuriating but is also less prone to shooting itself in the foot. China's system works well when it works, but it more easily produces giant missteps like the Great Leap Forward or zero covid.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#275

Post by uejfiweun »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #206
WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has been a trope in scifi since years. I remember the original Black Ops 2 video game campaign literally built on microprocessors all coming from China.

I believe this was also a plot point of the (newer) Outer Limits, with drugged up soldiers believing each other to be hostile aliens. Without the USSR, the US didn’t have any other power to serve as a credible enemy. I’m certainly not some insightful prophet: I can’t discount SF playing its part in influencing me; but it also makes sense in the long term (Carthage and Rome; Greece Polis’ and Persia…). Headbutting is…

It was also a plot point in Ghost Fleet by P.W. Singer, which is kind of a think-tanked hypothetical "what-if" look at WW3 between China and the US, and has been adopted as reading material by the US military. The US military is full of guys who care about nothing in life except the defense of the country. Any dependency we have on China, you can be sure they're well aware of it.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#276

Post by uejfiweun »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #146
nonethewiser wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

This is not true. Many people predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine. You can look back at books like The Next 100 Years (2009) or The Accidental Superpower (2014) which predicted the war almost to the T.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#277

Post by cpursley »

varispeed wrote: post #254
jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

Most people don't want to try and make things, so they are unaware how incredibly f we are. Like I have little project and needed an enclosure made to order. Nothing fancy. Tried three rather known Western vendors and none could manufacture it to an acceptable standard. It was also very expensive and customer service seemed annoyed that I even want to order anything. I lost a lot of money on this, simply because I di…

Agree! I just ordered a custom made guitar ("NK headless guitars" on aliexpress for those who are interested). While's there's a bit of a language barrier, there's no way I could get close to the level of customer support and quality for the price ($500). You can't even start a conversation with a US/EU company for less than $2000k USD for a custom guitar build. This Chinese company started off cloning a well known brand (Strandburg) but eventually came up with their own very unique design. And not only that, they can customize things unlike the big brand.

I just don't get the anti-China hate. Is it racism?

https://www.aliexpress.com/store/1101096166?spm=a2g0o.detail...

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#278

Post by dmix »

nonethewiser wrote: post #221
dmix wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should the US instigate trade wars so hard? Why not be pro-free trade as possible (even if it's imbalanced) while investing heavily in their own self-reliance. That sounds more win-win to me than throwing gasoline on the fire when there's little practical self-realiance replacements in the near term without bigger consequences than the alternative. It's a dangerous game to play without substantial and subsequent…

China had (and still has) higher tariffs on U.S. goods decades ago. They don’t respect copyright laws, use tech for spying, and steal technology. How is the US starting a trade war?

I didn't say they started it. I explicitly said at a known imbalance. Because without significant preperation you just make it worse where both sides lose. Expecting China to not steal and cheat when it's a core part of their modern culture is a losing game.

Expecting some demographic way-too-used to being poor via gov policy, a long history of alleged victimization by the US being the root cause of ALL their problems sold by propaganda for 50yrs+, and totally obedient to a hyper central government built on top of reality denial (aka "saving face").

...idk I feel like the only real alternative is investment into self reliance and getting whatever concessions you can via positive trade actions until then.

It's like fighting piracy with copyright laws when everyone pirates movies and Netflix doesn't exist and you have to go to Blockbuster. And allegedly if we do ban piracy we'll eventually get downloadable movies in an indefinite amount of time because our gov will suddenly care and save us.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#279

Post by pm90 »

klodolph wrote: post #237
jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

I am less convinced that China is really good at playing the long game, and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles that we see in the US. It’s just so easy to tap into our fears of China that we want to believe that they’re this smart and ruthless. We look for evidence to validate our feelings. There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more depos…

Agreed. Everyone wants a bogeyman. It’s great for Nationalism and Politicians who can blame someone else.

Strong economic ties are the only way to align interests and prevent destructive wars.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#280

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

klodolph wrote: post #237
jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

I am less convinced that China is really good at playing the long game, and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles that we see in the US. It’s just so easy to tap into our fears of China that we want to believe that they’re this smart and ruthless. We look for evidence to validate our feelings. There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more depos…

What checks and balances are there in the Chinese government?
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