A meta comment: since Elon’s takeover there has been an astounding volume of Twitter doom wishcasting. Almost none of these predictions have come true, and while I suppose they may eventually, the posts/articles getting increasingly difficult to pay attention to. Every time I see another of these my reaction is “god, another one?” I’ve been struggling to evaluate these articles on the merits, I’m sure I’m not alone.…
To be fair to the doomers- slow failures can look like “business as usual” for a long long time. It’s very dependent on how someone defines success and failure. If Elon pours a billion a year into Twitter, is that a failure? Alternatively, is it really a success if it just keeps chugging along but doesn’t grow or innovate?
Maybe Twitters ends up something like IBM. It’s still there, but people can differ on whether IbM of the last 20+ years is really successful.
Edit - this is why most “predictions” are dumb, they are not concrete, measurable, or time bounded.