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How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

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Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#11

Post by wootland »

adamrezich wrote: post #7

it seems to be working just fine despite all the layoffs. many of these complaints seem more political than practical. I understand that a set of people exists who are dissatisfied with twitter and/or are eagerly anticipating some grand implosion of the company, but many more people than this set use the platform, so questions like "how much longer can twitter last, really?" come across as having come from a very ins…

There have been constant problems since Musk took over. Just yesterday retweets were showing up in people's feeds without the attribution of who retweeted them, so they looked like random people showing up in your feed.

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#13

Post by dragontamer »

smeeth wrote: post #9

A meta comment: since Elon’s takeover there has been an astounding volume of Twitter doom wishcasting. Almost none of these predictions have come true, and while I suppose they may eventually, the posts/articles getting increasingly difficult to pay attention to. Every time I see another of these my reaction is “god, another one?” I’ve been struggling to evaluate these articles on the merits, I’m sure I’m not alone.…

> Almost none of these predictions have come true

There's only one prediction that really matters in my eyes: the prediction that Elon would win the October 2022 court case and somehow get out of his contractual agreement to buy Twitter.

Can the future be predicted? Ehh, probably not. But the thing that has held up time-and-time again is legal, contractual obligations.

1. Elon Musk is terrible at understanding contracts.

2. Because of #1, Elon Musk breaks contracts on a regular basis.

3. In some cases, Elon Musk gets sued, it takes months (or even a year+) for the courts to address these contracts, and Elon eventually gets his ass kicked in court.

#3 has the most uncertainty. But... Elon has been breaking contracts with such vigor this past year (including his attempts to "not buy Twitter", among others), that I'm willing to bet that he's going to make the same mistake again, and again, and again.

----------

Haraldur Thorliefsson and the FTC case are both similar events to the October 2022 court case in my eyes. They seem to have solid foundation of law. They seem to have been ignored by Elon Musk, and finally, there seems to be court action going on.

I don't know how long the court action will take, but I'm willing to bet against Elon Musk on this one.

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#14

Post by [deleted] »

adamrezich wrote: post #7

it seems to be working just fine despite all the layoffs. many of these complaints seem more political than practical. I understand that a set of people exists who are dissatisfied with twitter and/or are eagerly anticipating some grand implosion of the company, but many more people than this set use the platform, so questions like "how much longer can twitter last, really?" come across as having come from a very ins…

[deleted]

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#17

Post by retox »

smeeth wrote: post #9

A meta comment: since Elon’s takeover there has been an astounding volume of Twitter doom wishcasting. Almost none of these predictions have come true, and while I suppose they may eventually, the posts/articles getting increasingly difficult to pay attention to. Every time I see another of these my reaction is “god, another one?” I’ve been struggling to evaluate these articles on the merits, I’m sure I’m not alone.…

The average person doesn't care about any of this crying, they will use twitter for another ten years.

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#18

Post by dragonwriter »

jamestimmins wrote: post #4

An alternative is that it gets purchased for a few billion dollars by a tech PE firm or Microsoft, which honestly would be a pretty good outcome.

> An alternative is that it gets purchased for a few billion dollars by a tech PE firm or Microsoft, which honestly would be a pretty good outcome.

But with all the potential outstanding liability? Why not wait until the hammer comes down and the uncertainty is gone to purchase the firm, or whatever assets are useful, unless you really want to beat someone else to the punch?

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#20

Post by dragontamer »

dragonwriter wrote: post #18
jamestimmins wrote: post #4

An alternative is that it gets purchased for a few billion dollars by a tech PE firm or Microsoft, which honestly would be a pretty good outcome.

> An alternative is that it gets purchased for a few billion dollars by a tech PE firm or Microsoft, which honestly would be a pretty good outcome. But with all the potential outstanding liability? Why not wait until the hammer comes down and the uncertainty is gone to purchase the firm, or whatever assets are useful, unless you really want to beat someone else to the punch?

I know you know this, but I'm going to elaborate for others.

Bankruptcy is the best time to buy companies. The loans will be rewritten, so you can buy the company's assets _WITHOUT_ taking on any of its liabilities. The Twitter name, trademark, and other assets (maybe source code, servers, data-centers, etc. etc.) all will be up for sale. You can likely buy the "bits of Twitter" you care most about, and leave the other bits for others.

I have severe doubts that anyone will want to buy Twitter when it has so much debt under its name. Might as well wait for it to collapse first.

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