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How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

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Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#6

An alternative is that it gets purchased for a few billion dollars by a tech PE firm or Microsoft, which honestly would be a pretty good outcome.

A low single digit billion exit is meaningless for Elon. It things reach that point it'll make more sense for him to just ride it out till the end and file for bankruptcy.

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#7
it seems to be working just fine despite all the layoffs.

many of these complaints seem more political than practical. I understand that a set of people exists who are dissatisfied with twitter and/or are eagerly anticipating some grand implosion of the company, but many more people than this set use the platform, so questions like "how much longer can twitter last, really?" come across as having come from a very insulated ideological bubble, rather than taking the entire spectrum of experiences had by twitter users into account.

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#8

An alternative is that it gets purchased for a few billion dollars by a tech PE firm or Microsoft, which honestly would be a pretty good outcome.

Even if you bought Twitter for $0, you're taking on $13 Billion in loans.

You'd have to buy Twitter for *negative* dollars, like -$8 Billion (ie: Elon gives $8 Billion to you and Twitter) to "only" buy the company for $5 Billion effective costs.

Note: The $13 Billion loan is likely devalued 30%+, so maybe its only worth $9.5 Billion these days. Hard to say exactly, I'm just making some crude assumptions here. The loans may have been backed by several banks, but they aren't trading on the public market yet so its hard to value them.

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#9
A meta comment: since Elon’s takeover there has been an astounding volume of Twitter doom wishcasting.

Almost none of these predictions have come true, and while I suppose they may eventually, the posts/articles getting increasingly difficult to pay attention to.

Every time I see another of these my reaction is “god, another one?” I’ve been struggling to evaluate these articles on the merits, I’m sure I’m not alone.

If you want to write an article like this and avoid this problem I recommend that you take extreme care to at least pretend Elon failing wouldn’t give you profound schadenfreude.

Re: How Much Longer Can Twitter Last, Really?

#10

Option 3: Musk says something particularly offensive and starts an avalanche before these hammers even fall.

I don't think so. There's been a lot of especially stupid things said the last 4 years, and I haven't seen any real backlash to any of it.

People like it when rich people say stupid things on the internet. Its how he grows his fanbase.

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