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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#171

Post by Maursault »

richardw wrote: post #141
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Own more parts of the tech chip industry it doesn’t already? It would instantly have even more massive leverage internationally.

> Own more parts of the tech chip industry it doesn’t already? It would instantly have even more massive leverage internationally.

Actually, it would gain China only anything other than this.

     If China were to invade Taiwan, the most-advanced chip factory in the world would be rendered “not operable,” TSMC Chair Mark Liu said[1]
And "non operability" might be the least of TSMC's worries.[2]

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/apple-chipmaker-tsmc-warns-t...

[2] https://www.phonearena.com/news/if-china-invades-taiwan-us-c...

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#172

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

ajmurmann wrote: post #165
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. This is really irrelevant to the conflict, which goes back long before Taiwan democratized (which was only in the late 1990s). The conflict is relatively simple. Taiwan was a province of China, and still is a part of the Republic of China. The People's Republic of China sees itself as the successor…

> and is also seen as such by the rest of the world Is this actually true? It seems that most governments accept the formal definition in a diplomatic sense because they want to avoid conflict with China. However, it seems clear that at least most western countries see Taiwan as its own country in practice. From my experience the population of western countries is either surprised to hear that Taiwan isn't supposed t…

> Is this actually true?

Yes. The governments of the world switched recognition from the Republic of China to the People's Republic of China, and transferred "China's" UN Security Council seat to the PRC.

> However, it seems clear that at least most western countries see Taiwan as its own country in practice.

They maintain informal ties, but not formal diplomatic ties. Even the PRC has informal ties with the ROC.

> surprised to hear that Taiwan isn't supposed to be its own country

It's perhaps surprising, given Taiwan's de facto independence, but legally, it's not that surprising. Taiwan was a part of China, and it's difficult to define a point in time at which it ceased to be so. Both the ROC and PRC agreed that Taiwan was part of China for decades after the end of the civil war. The Taiwanese independence movement, which has become much stronger over the last 20 years, has changed sentiment in Taiwan itself. However, it would be a major step for other countries to decide that Taiwan no longer legally belongs to China.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#173

Post by clouddrover »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

> they're better served by the status quo

Russia was better served by the status quo but they went ahead and invaded Ukraine.

Xi Jinping is feeling his age (just like Putin). Xi Jinping sees the mere existence of Taiwan as an independent state as an historical wrong (like Putin). Xi Jinping wants to be the one what got Taiwan, he wants it to be his legacy (again, just like Putin).

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan won't be a strategic choice or even a rational choice. It's an emotional choice.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#174

Post by akimball »

908B64B197 wrote: post #31
moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

Here's the real issue: China has been dumping rare earth metals and magnets at ridiculously low prices for decades (and polluting their country). This had the effect of making mining and refining these metals unprofitable in the west (why pay the huge price of pollution when the Chinese will contaminate their ground water below costs?). This doesn't mean the west can't scale up prospection and innovation to have clea…

MP Materials is doing this in a big way, in the US.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#175

Post by ajmurmann »

eu wrote: post #155
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

What does Russia stand to gain by invading Ukraine?!

Several things:

* Ukraine historically had been their bread basket

* It's one of several hard to defend routes into Russia. Russia needs Ukraine as a buffer.

* Eastern Ukraine has lots of mining and industry Russia needs that were critical to the UDSSR economy as well.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#176

Post by akimball »

delfinom wrote: post #96
xiphias2 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. It's a 100 year long trend that started with the 1933 gold ban in US, later Bretton Woods, decreasing US global bond portfolio recently, and the Russian central bank asset freezing. Personally I think that defaulting on Russia was a bigger deal than the Yuan bon…

Bitcoin, utterly worthless the moment rockets start flying and knocking out internet infrastructure

If the internet stops working, you will have bigger problems than money.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#177

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

verdverm wrote: post #170
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. This is really irrelevant to the conflict, which goes back long before Taiwan democratized (which was only in the late 1990s). The conflict is relatively simple. Taiwan was a province of China, and still is a part of the Republic of China. The People's Republic of China sees itself as the successor…

Given it has been so long and they are now so different, why is reunification even necessary at this point? (Other than the CCP wants to control Taiwan based on historical lines) Why is the CCP so intent on controlling the land of another country? Most people practically consider Taiwan independent, even if the "agreements" around it say something else. They have their own government, flag, military, trade agreements…

> Why is the CCP so intent on controlling the land of another country?

The way you frame the question already suggests that you're not interested in why China (not just the CCP - this is a broad sentiment inside China) sees things the way it does.

Taiwan is not seen as "another country" in China. It's seen as a Chinese province that is temporarily separated from China due to the civil war. This was also the view of successive Taiwanese governments for decades after the civil war ended, and it shouldn't be surprising that people on the mainland still see it this way.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#178

Post by nobodyandproud »

eftychis wrote: post #161
nobodyandproud wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

I disagree about the Russia Ukraine prediction statements in this discussion. Nobody wanted to admit a "full blown invasion would happen" is better wording. Russia invaded and was meddling with Ukraine back in 2014. It invaded Georgia in an actual war back then over the same act. EU vetoed related action and was preaching that everything is going to be fine because Germany was using all their power to not ruin their…

> Nobody wanted to admit a "full blown invasion would happen" is better wording.

That’s still a spectacular failure in its own right.

It means we’re not willing to admit the obvious until it becomes a far bigger problem.

A weakness of a democratic process without the right leaders.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#179

Post by prottog »

medo-bear wrote: post #149
nobodyandproud wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand. Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable. 15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are. China’s now using shows of…

about 20 years ago i asked an old commie (proper commie, with portraits of marx engels lenin proudly hung on the wall and a library to show) what he thinks of china. his response stuck with me to this day in china you don't have socialism. what you have in china is a market for head-nooses and western capitalists are the main customer. it's absolutely genius!

The quote "Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them." has been attributed to various Marxists over the decades.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#180

Post by 35208654 »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #140
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand. Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable. 15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are. China’s now using shows of…

This has been a popular opinion for a very long time. It even supports a plot point in the movie The Departed (2006):

Oliver Queenan : Microprocessors.

Billy Costigan : Micro what?

Oliver Queenan : Microprocessors. We'll probably be at war with the Chinese in 20-odd years and Costello is selling them military technology. Microprocessors, chips, computer parts. Anybody says anything about anything like that you let us know

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