China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech • Hacker News Board

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#161

Post by eftychis » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:05 PM UTC

nobodyandproud wrote: post #146

nonethewiser wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

I disagree about the Russia Ukraine prediction statements in this discussion.

Nobody wanted to admit a "full blown invasion would happen" is better wording.

Russia invaded and was meddling with Ukraine back in 2014. It invaded Georgia in an actual war back then over the same act.

EU vetoed related action and was preaching that everything is going to be fine because Germany was using all their power to not ruin their profitable trade with Russia.

We have to call things with their own name.

Related to the average Joe's beliefs: they would believe their leaders telling them everything is fine and nothing bad will happen because they want to believe it. No thinking or prediction was involved in any of this.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#162

Post by akimball » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:06 PM UTC

HDThoreaun wrote: post #99

sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

China is worried about being blockaded, which is a large threat due to their reliance on middle eastern oil. The status quo makes it relatively easy for the American navy to completely encircle their shores, but without Taiwan that strategy breaks down.

Not really. You just blockade Taiwan. Move the circle out a little bit.

Moreover, attacking Taiwan guarantees that a blockade will occur.

Besides which, Taiwan probably has nukes inside the PRC. If not they are dumber than dirt.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#163

Post by akimball » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:08 PM UTC

anonymouskimmer wrote: post #50

sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.

There is no scenario in which PRC invades Taiwan and the taiwanese chip fabs remain intact

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#164

Post by creato » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:08 PM UTC

lenkite wrote: post #125

CamperBob2 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly? They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

> They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia. Umm...except for US+EU, no one is saying No to Russian oil and other exports. Of-course, you are free to consider that the "rest of the civilized world" in your mind.

Russia is getting $52/barrel for oil. Other producers are getting $80-85/barrel.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#165

Post by ajmurmann » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:08 PM UTC

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #151

dougmwne wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand, it is an affront to their regime. It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. In a very real sense, Taiwan is not a separate country, but a unconquered territory from the Civil War, the last bastion of the pre-1949 Republic of China, and a symbol of what could have been for all of China. Sure there are geopolitical reas…

> It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. This is really irrelevant to the conflict, which goes back long before Taiwan democratized (which was only in the late 1990s). The conflict is relatively simple. Taiwan was a province of China, and still is a part of the Republic of China. The People's Republic of China sees itself as the successor…

> and is also seen as such by the rest of the world

Is this actually true? It seems that most governments accept the formal definition in a diplomatic sense because they want to avoid conflict with China. However, it seems clear that at least most western countries see Taiwan as its own country in practice. From my experience the population of western countries is either surprised to hear that Taiwan isn't supposed to be its own country or see this as some bizarre concession to the power-hungry CCP we make to keep them peaceful.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#166

Post by barelysapient » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:08 PM UTC

Despegar wrote: post #131

barelysapient wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think its more a tit-for-tat response to previous US trade restrictions.

That's exactly what it is. The US decided (beginning with the Trump administration) that the status quo was unacceptable and has decided to "decouple" and increasingly contain China's development with export controls. No one should be surprised that there's retaliation, but everyone pretends that it's the other side that is the aggressor while they are simply the innocent victim.

I think that's largely true; although in hindsight the US missed a crucial opportunity during the Obama administration to respond to China's bans on Google, Facebook, forced tech transfers, et cetera.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#167

Post by akimball » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:08 PM UTC

richardw wrote: post #141

sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Own more parts of the tech chip industry it doesn’t already? It would instantly have even more massive leverage internationally.

Taiwanese fabs would become rubble in the event of an invasion.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#168

Post by anonymouskimmer » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:11 PM UTC

lenkite wrote: post #116

anonymouskimmer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.

Not really. The U.S. really has its blinkers fully on if folks think that controlling the node fabs is a reason for the Chinese invasion. They are not dumbos - they know the foundries will be destroyed immediately. The reason is simple - China has always considered Taiwan part of China and the U.S. agreed to that position, before it first became "strategic ambiguity" and then it became "Taiwanese Independence" under…

> U.S. agreed to that position

Yes, but the US never agreed which government would be the sole government of a united China.

> Do you really think a super-power is going to accept a non-friendly island next door to it militarised by an opponent super-power allowing it to project power just on its border ?

This was happening through the entire Cold War between Russia and the US in the Aleutian islands. It's the status quo change of nuclear missiles in Cuba that prompted the Cuban missile crisis, prior to that Russian troops and arms were present in Cuba without any deepening of the conflict.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#169

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:15 PM UTC

nobodyandproud wrote: post #146

nonethewiser wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

[deleted]

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#170

Post by verdverm » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:15 PM UTC

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #151

dougmwne wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand, it is an affront to their regime. It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. In a very real sense, Taiwan is not a separate country, but a unconquered territory from the Civil War, the last bastion of the pre-1949 Republic of China, and a symbol of what could have been for all of China. Sure there are geopolitical reas…

> It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. This is really irrelevant to the conflict, which goes back long before Taiwan democratized (which was only in the late 1990s). The conflict is relatively simple. Taiwan was a province of China, and still is a part of the Republic of China. The People's Republic of China sees itself as the successor…

Given it has been so long and they are now so different, why is reunification even necessary at this point? (Other than the CCP wants to control Taiwan based on historical lines)

Why is the CCP so intent on controlling the land of another country? Most people practically consider Taiwan independent, even if the "agreements" around it say something else. They have their own government, flag, military, trade agreements, and more