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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#121

Post by WinstonSmith84 »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #79
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

This is the wrong question. The right question is: what does the leader of china gain by ordering an invasion of Taiwan?

If I were him, I'd prefer the status quo. Invading Taiwan is not a 100% success guarantee and surely Xi doesn't want to end up like Putin in Ukraine. Even a (military) success would threaten his rule, simply by the economical consequences. That's a lot of risks for very little rewards. But who knows ... we can just hope for the sake of all of us, that the Chinese have better intelligence and better risk assessment than the Russians had.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#122

Post by vkou »

antibasilisk wrote: post #117
vkou wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a world without internet, your paper wallet will be worth ~as much as my D&D character's inventory sheet. And probably less, because at least the character sheet is big enough that I can make a paper airplane out of it.

Why's that?

Because without a working network, it becomes impossible to actually use it as currency. At least bars of gold, or gold-coated tungsten, or pirate treasure, or papiermarks or dollars or lottery scratchers or bottlecaps can physically change hands in exchange for goods.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#123

Post by decafninja »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Face.

As an East Asian myself, the amount of stupidity that goes on in all of the East Asian countries at all levels because of “face” is astounding.

Call it “honor” or “nationalism” or “XXX Pride” - ultimately all the same thing.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#124

Post by verdverm »

vkou wrote: post #104
verdverm wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, the people can force change through protests and elections. What options do the Uyghurs or Chinese people have?

Do you want a real answer to this, or one that self-congratulates us, by playing to our biases and cultural myths, and generally poor understanding of how societies work? The same options that any people have. Soft power. Every government, be it formally representative or not, multi-party or dual-party, or single-party is ultimately only able to govern with the consent of the governed. There are always levers for peo…

There is a lot of bias and emotion to unpack from your comment. It's not like one side is more manipulative than the other in the US, both are equally guilty of this, it's part of politics in a democracy, especially given the hyper-media. The "wokeness" movement went to far and we as a country are now self correcting, not the first time it happened, last time it was called PC for short. And it's not just a "right" side issue, many of us left leaning also feel it went too far, to the point that the DEI initiatives violate out equality rules by encouraging preference for some groups over others. It's a fallacy to think your team is right and has all the correct answers.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#125

Post by lenkite »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #103
zsz wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Pacific, for one, meaning control of shipping lanes—and with these, economic/political leverage over Japan (which, as internal PLA documents for senior staff have already revealed, they intend to put to full use). Right now, China is boxed in from all sides by mostly U.S. allied countries, so breaking the "First Island Chain" encirclement is in reality a much bigger deal than the semiconductor industry, especiall…

Who do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly? They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

> They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

Umm...except for US+EU, no one is saying No to Russian oil and other exports. Of-course, you are free to consider that the "rest of the civilized world" in your mind.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#126

Post by gscott »

lenkite wrote: post #101
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

They have always considered Taiwan part of China. The US even agreed and signed a treaty regarding that. The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. Since then, the US devolved first to strategic ambiguity and then recently to…

Taiwan's output of chips requires inputs from the rest of the world including Japan. At this time it doesn't make sense for china to cut out it's main source of high tech chips. It could make sense later if China had its own supply of chips and could cut out Taiwan altogether. China is pushing hard to make their own non-liberal order but China also depends on exports. Also China's political system is based upon absolute control over everything a person does. It will be messy implementing that onto people who already fought against it so there will be a lot of killings, disappearing people, and the usual China stuff broadcast all of time. Will be a bad look, not great to throw that in the face of people you need to export goods to.

We have no political control in Cuba even though we did take a portion of the island.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#127

Post by Animatronio »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #115
vkou wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only the US, after all, is allowed to militarize the South China sea.

> the US, after all, is allowed to militarize the South China sea The U.S. doesn’t claim the sea as its sovereign waters. China does. (Which had the totally unpredictable effect of majorly pissing off every one of its maritime neighbours.)

Not true, China's claims are best known in the West because everybody hates/fears them. But there are others - like the dispute between Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines regarding maritime borders.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#128

Post by dougmwne »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

From what I understand, it is an affront to their regime. It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. In a very real sense, Taiwan is not a separate country, but a unconquered territory from the Civil War, the last bastion of the pre-1949 Republic of China, and a symbol of what could have been for all of China.

Sure there are geopolitical reasons as well, but The CCP very much does not want the living proof that they are not necessary to be sitting 100 miles off their coast.

If there were ever a real democratic movement in China it would draw huge cultural inspiration from Taiwan.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#129

Post by Despegar »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #115
vkou wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only the US, after all, is allowed to militarize the South China sea.

> the US, after all, is allowed to militarize the South China sea The U.S. doesn’t claim the sea as its sovereign waters. China does. (Which had the totally unpredictable effect of majorly pissing off every one of its maritime neighbours.)

All the countries in the region have overlapping claims to the waters, it's not unique to China.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#130

Post by [deleted] »

edgyquant wrote: post #88
FpUser wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast." During the CWI (ha I just coined the new Cold War I term) we did not get hi-tech stuff from the opponent. In CWII we are not that lucky and have no immediate replacement for many things. I am afraid if this thing really gets up to speed we a heading for disaster. That the other side suffers as well or even worse is no consolation.

What high tech stuff do we get from China?

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