China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech • Hacker News Board

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#41

Post by FpUser » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

verdverm wrote: post #3

moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

We've been in Cold War 2 for a while. It's hard to see the other two options as better alternatives. (hot war & capitulation) The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast. Authoritarianism has a problem with corruption and not telling the leader the truth of reality.

>"The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast."

During the CWI (ha I just coined the new Cold War I term) we did not get hi-tech stuff from the opponent. In CWII we are not that lucky and have no immediate replacement for many things. I am afraid if this thing really gets up to speed we a heading for disaster. That the other side suffers as well or even worse is no consolation.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#42

Post by akiselev » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

aarreedd wrote: post #28

augment001 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately so, but by comparison to China it has a very long way to go.

This comment was marked as "dead" for couple minutes. Visible again now. I was about to ask why.

Likely registered via VPN or Tor.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#43

Post by sudosysgen » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

causi wrote: post #29

echelon wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger story is the recent push to settle trade in Yuan instead of USD. BRICS [1] , Saudi Arabia [2], many South American [3] and ASEAN countries [4], (and even France [5]!) have signed on to do Yuan-based settlement. This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. The US economy and our special ability to…

I have doubts China is suddenly going to decide to stop its extreme currency manipulation. The question is how quickly it will bite the countries trading in it.

They are putting forwards a proposal for bilateral trade (and have proposed a dynamic basket of currencies as a reserve previously). The alternative being explored is not a 1-1 replacement of the USD with the Yuan.

Additionally, from the perspective of much of the world, the US has been engaging in pretty sizeable currency manipulation in the past 3 years.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#44

Post by FpUser » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

SllX wrote: post #34

nivenkos wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly, the West is looking more and more authoritarian though.

If this is true, you should substantiate this claim. More authoritarian compared to when? 1789? 1919? 1933? 1945? 1951? 1962? 1974? 1989? 2007? 2019?

Comparatively to before 911 for sure

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#45

Post by SllX » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:36 PM UTC

FpUser wrote: post #44

SllX wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is true, you should substantiate this claim. More authoritarian compared to when? 1789? 1919? 1933? 1945? 1951? 1962? 1974? 1989? 2007? 2019?

Comparatively to before 911 for sure

Just prior to 9/11 or are you talking about the period between 1989 and 9/11?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#46

Post by sohex » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:38 PM UTC

causi wrote: post #33

moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#47

Post by eric-hu » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:39 PM UTC

causi wrote: post #29

echelon wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger story is the recent push to settle trade in Yuan instead of USD. BRICS [1] , Saudi Arabia [2], many South American [3] and ASEAN countries [4], (and even France [5]!) have signed on to do Yuan-based settlement. This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. The US economy and our special ability to…

I have doubts China is suddenly going to decide to stop its extreme currency manipulation. The question is how quickly it will bite the countries trading in it.

There’s nothing sudden about what China’s been doing with its trade surplus. In the aughts they were spending most of it on US treasuries. After the great financial crisis they began tapering their purchases and shifting to a basket of other currencies. In the mid 2010’s they started the belt and road initiative to turn trade surplus into loans and infrastructure in foreign countries. It’s been at least 15 years of them pulling away from the tight coupling they had with USD.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#48

Post by joecot » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:43 PM UTC

sohex wrote: post #46

causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

The same reason Russia invaded Ukraine even though it made no sense. The same reason Republicans put up Trump even though it made no sense. If you have 0 morals, you can gain a lot of power by riling up your base with empty promises of nationalist glory. But eventually your base expects you put up or shut up, even if it doesn't or never has made sense.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#49

Post by moose_man » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:43 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #39

moose_man wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are articles about this going back 20 years to the early 2000s I'm not just coming up with this thesis. It's been apparent for a long time. They had a natural advantage to begin with but they went much further.

Here is an actual concrete article you can read (vs. the ones you say exist that support your thesis): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_industry_in_China . > In 2002, China's central government pushed forward restructuring of the domestic rare earth industry by creating two state-owned groups China Northern Rare Earth Group Company and China Southern Rare Earth Group Company.[14] This largely failed due to op…

Look I understand countries are complicated and there are a lot of interests however I think that the Chinese government is totally capable of acting in a centralized way on a fixed target like mining (vs. something like semiconductors) when it believes it is a core national interest.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#50

Post by anonymouskimmer » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 5:43 PM UTC

sohex wrote: post #46

causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs.

> other than nationalistic fervor

And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.