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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#31

Post by 908B64B197 »

moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

Here's the real issue:

China has been dumping rare earth metals and magnets at ridiculously low prices for decades (and polluting their country). This had the effect of making mining and refining these metals unprofitable in the west (why pay the huge price of pollution when the Chinese will contaminate their ground water below costs?).

This doesn't mean the west can't scale up prospection and innovation to have cleaner ways to make these magnets. There's little to no tech gap the Chinese have over the west.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#32

Post by seanmcdirmid »

moose_man wrote: post #26
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it was that, I think China's lack of environmental rule enforcement led to a condition that allowed for lower cost producers, the state didn't intend on controlling this market (or maybe some combination of that, but refusing to export in the future means they won't control the market anymore).

No, it's pretty clear that this was a top down effort to control the global market, a concerted effort by the state. https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-merges-three-rare-...

No, not at all. It is clear to you because you aren't looking at the entire history. But to anyone who has been in China for awhile, it is obvious that it happened overtime and wasn't intended. You are assuming China is an authoritarian country where state control is absolute, but in reality, China is a huge country where there are lots people making even if that means destroying the environment while the government isn't paying attention.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#33

Post by causi »

moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war.

In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#34

Post by SllX »

nivenkos wrote: post #6
verdverm wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been in Cold War 2 for a while. It's hard to see the other two options as better alternatives. (hot war & capitulation) The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast. Authoritarianism has a problem with corruption and not telling the leader the truth of reality.

Sadly, the West is looking more and more authoritarian though.

If this is true, you should substantiate this claim. More authoritarian compared to when? 1789? 1919? 1933? 1945? 1951? 1962? 1974? 1989? 2007? 2019?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#35

Post by elihu »

echelon wrote: post #15
moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

The bigger story is the recent push to settle trade in Yuan instead of USD. BRICS [1] , Saudi Arabia [2], many South American [3] and ASEAN countries [4], (and even France [5]!) have signed on to do Yuan-based settlement. This is the strongest concerted effort to kill the petrodollar and Bretton Woods. It would have devasting impact to the US economy if this trend continues. The US economy and our special ability to…

Bretton Woods officially ending in 1976, and was effectively killed in 1971 by Nixon when he ended the convertibility of dollars to gold.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#36

Post by moose_man »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #32
moose_man wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's pretty clear that this was a top down effort to control the global market, a concerted effort by the state. https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-merges-three-rare-...

No, not at all. It is clear to you because you aren't looking at the entire history. But to anyone who has been in China for awhile, it is obvious that it happened overtime and wasn't intended. You are assuming China is an authoritarian country where state control is absolute, but in reality, China is a huge country where there are lots people making even if that means destroying the environment while the government…

There are articles about this going back 20 years to the early 2000s I'm not just coming up with this thesis. It's been apparent for a long time. They had a natural advantage to begin with but they went much further.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#37

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

aarreedd wrote: post #28
augment001 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately so, but by comparison to China it has a very long way to go.

This comment was marked as "dead" for couple minutes. Visible again now. I was about to ask why.

[flagged]

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#38

Post by xiphias2 »

moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

I don't understand why you need quotes for national security.

Anybody who has seen Trump's ,,China China China'' video knew that relations between the US and China have significantly shifted towards being less friendly with eachother.

Banning rare earth magnets is terrible for cleaning up the earth, but after the chip ban that US is pushing so hard, China has to answer :(

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#39

Post by seanmcdirmid »

moose_man wrote: post #36
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, not at all. It is clear to you because you aren't looking at the entire history. But to anyone who has been in China for awhile, it is obvious that it happened overtime and wasn't intended. You are assuming China is an authoritarian country where state control is absolute, but in reality, China is a huge country where there are lots people making even if that means destroying the environment while the government…

There are articles about this going back 20 years to the early 2000s I'm not just coming up with this thesis. It's been apparent for a long time. They had a natural advantage to begin with but they went much further.

Here is an actual concrete article you can read (vs. the ones you say exist that support your thesis): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_industry_in_China.

> In 2002, China's central government pushed forward restructuring of the domestic rare earth industry by creating two state-owned groups China Northern Rare Earth Group Company and China Southern Rare Earth Group Company.[14] This largely failed due to opposition from powerful local authorities and local producers.[14] Fierce competition in the local sector produced low profitability and inefficiency. This drove producers to consolidate and merge into larger companies for survival.[14] Market forces thus accomplished what central planning could not.

> As rare earth prices went up because of the restriction of export, many illegal mines were developed by organized criminals to benefit from the trade.[15] The smuggling by organized criminal groups is harmful to China's rare earth industry as it depletes resources rapidly, deflates prices and causes supply problems for local producers.[16] It is estimated a third of exports or 20 000 tonnes in 2008 were illegally exported from China.[16]

Now, if China had a central government controlled conspiracy to dominate rare earth elements over the last 20 years, the history between 2002 and 2008 wouldn't have turned out like that. What they have right now is a mess.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#40

Post by drekk »

augment001 wrote: post #10
nivenkos wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly, the West is looking more and more authoritarian though.

Unfortunately so, but by comparison to China it has a very long way to go.

The US imprisons more of its own citizens per capita and in absolute terms than an "authoritarian" nation-state 4x its population.

Remind us the last time China invaded a country as "liberators"? Seeing Americans of all people sit on a high horse is unreal. Like every yank forgot about "shock and awe" or "make their economy scream"

It would be great to see westerners measure their own societies by the same yardstick. Mainly because as citizens ostensibly living in a democracy (representative republic, whatever) they are complicit and responsible for the choices of their elected bodies.

We're not even a few years removed from protestors against police brutality in the US being whisked away in unmarked vans by people not in uniform. It's a race to the bottom and the US is already there, but nobody seems to care as long as they can pat themselves on the back for not being Russia/China.

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