Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base? • Hacker News Board

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#91

Post by vintermann » Tue, Apr 04, 2023, 9:25 AM UTC

mistermann wrote: post #65

tremblane wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trying to remember the specifics of the training we got when I was in the US Air Force on the rules concerning nukes. This is the gist of it: Above all: Don't lie. The default is "neither confirm nor deny". For example: somebody asks if there were nukes on the plane that just crashed? Can't say. Even if you know there weren't, you can neither confirm nor deny. You MAY deny if it would benefit safety. For example: som…

> Above all: Don't lie. > The default is "neither confirm nor deny". For example: somebody asks if there were nukes on the plane that just crashed? Can't say. Even if you know there weren't, you can neither confirm nor deny. "Can't say" is a lie (as it is physically possible to say). "I have been ordered to say 'Can't say', even though I actually do know the truth" would be not lying. Not that it matters because no o…

"Can't say" is usually understood to mean "Can't say without disobeying orders or otherwise angering superiors". But yeah, it wouldn't hurt the people saying it to acknowledge that it is their choice.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#92

Post by vintermann » Tue, Apr 04, 2023, 9:32 AM UTC

tremblane wrote: post #37

vintermann wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There is no official confirmation" isn't especially noteworthy, when they simultaneously boast that they would never, ever officialy confirm something like that if it was true. My bet is most of the editors publishing this story called to ask if it was OK to publish first, and got a yes. They call it a "limited hangout". Better that a reputable source publicizes it with a ton of caveats about how unverified it is, t…

Trying to remember the specifics of the training we got when I was in the US Air Force on the rules concerning nukes. This is the gist of it: Above all: Don't lie. The default is "neither confirm nor deny". For example: somebody asks if there were nukes on the plane that just crashed? Can't say. Even if you know there weren't, you can neither confirm nor deny. You MAY deny if it would benefit safety. For example: som…

Well, about safety concerns, I don't feel so confident that the US military would put safety of civilians in another country over the safety of their own institutions. They may well think the worst threat to the safety of Dutch civilians is that Dutch civilians get mad at them and won't let themselves be protected anymore.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#93

Post by gambiting » Tue, Apr 04, 2023, 9:59 AM UTC

bpye wrote: post #85

gambiting wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That last part is literally in the article. If US President, UK Prime Minister and NATO Nuclear planning group all approve the strike, then the weapon is loaded on a Dutch F-16 and dropped by a Dutch pilot.

They had a linked article talking about a prior exercise [0] which includes the source for that procedure [1]: > “If NATO was to conduct a nuclear mission in a conflict,” NATO says, “the B-61 [sic] weapons would be carried by certified Allied aircraft…However, a nuclear mission can only be undertaken after explicit political approval is given by NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) and authorisation is received from t…

I imagine that in reality the entire thing is structured in such a way that these bombs don't have any scenario in which they could actually be used. Like you said, no way all of NATO would agree to deploy any of them unless NATO was being actively attacked with nuclear weapons, and if that happens then Brits and the French will be launching their own nukes already, and US will be sending ballistic missiles instead of launching figher plane mounted nukes. It's just political posturing, show of strength and political friendship between countries - we value US alliance so much that we allow them to station nuclear weapons on our soil, that kind of thing. But the agreements around their use make them practically pointless.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#94

Post by mistermann » Tue, Apr 04, 2023, 2:40 PM UTC

chipsa wrote: post #83

mistermann wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Above all: Don't lie. > The default is "neither confirm nor deny". For example: somebody asks if there were nukes on the plane that just crashed? Can't say. Even if you know there weren't, you can neither confirm nor deny. "Can't say" is a lie (as it is physically possible to say). "I have been ordered to say 'Can't say', even though I actually do know the truth" would be not lying. Not that it matters because no o…

If someone was under a NDA, and you asked them about stuff covered by the NDA, and they answered "I can't say", most people would not call that a lie. "Can't say" implies that aren't allowed to say, not that they won't say, but are allowed to.

Begetting Maya, Neoliberalism, democracy is our most sacred institution (coupled with "Why does everything suck so much!!!???"), etc.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#95

Post by tialaramex » Tue, Apr 04, 2023, 3:33 PM UTC

jt2190 wrote: post #26

tialaramex wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Officially there's no explanation for the image at all, but "It's some teenagers at my local high school, plus a lot of Photoshop" doesn't feel at all likely, does it? The idea that it's Volkel seems reasonably solid unless somebody has photographs known to be from somewhere else which look like that. We know Volkel's B61s are stored in a place exactly like that, we know most US airbases don't look exactly like that…

> Officially there's no explanation for the image at all, but "It's some teenagers at my local high school, plus a lot of Photoshop" doesn't feel at all likely, does it? Consider that a state-level adversary would definitely want to plant “fake news” like this (done indirectly through third-parties, of course), for reasons including: • bogging down our day-to-day operations as everyone “investigates” and “double-chec…

Your preferred theory is that Los Alamos National Laboratory students can't have photographs of US military training exercises, but they do publish "fake news" for state-level adversaries of the United States of America? OK.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#96

Post by avar » Tue, Apr 04, 2023, 9:37 PM UTC

rep_lodsb wrote: post #55

avar wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetically, if the bomb is damaged in such a way that it may accidentally detonate, it's going to be pointless to try to fix the issue while wearing protective gear.

This couldn't happen. It takes precision timing of the conventional explosives inside a nuke to trigger detonation.

The article under discussion here disagrees with you, see the "Nuclear Accident Management" section.