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Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

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Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#21

Post by vintermann »

23B1 wrote: post #19
wewtyflakes wrote: post #14

When the headline is asking the audience, the answer is usually no.

Article: “It must be emphasized up front that there is no official confirmation that the image was taken at Volkel Air Base, that the bent B61 shape is a real weapon (versus a trainer), or that the damage was the result of an accident (versus a training simulation).” Headline writer/editor: “Hold my beer”

"There is no official confirmation" isn't especially noteworthy, when they simultaneously boast that they would never, ever officialy confirm something like that if it was true.

My bet is most of the editors publishing this story called to ask if it was OK to publish first, and got a yes. They call it a "limited hangout". Better that a reputable source publicizes it with a ton of caveats about how unverified it is, than that someone more hostile finds it out first.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#22

Post by jacobsenscott »

bostonsre wrote: post #9

Would they be wearing protective gear if it was an actual accident? Also, the dude with the clip board doesn't look very concerned...

The guy with the beard (most likely the one who knows the most about it) looks like he's ready to take a big step back though.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#23

Post by ceejayoz »

bostonsre wrote: post #9

Would they be wearing protective gear if it was an actual accident? Also, the dude with the clip board doesn't look very concerned...

> Would they be wearing protective gear if it was an actual accident?

Nuclear warhead cores were routinely handled by hand. Not sure if they still are, but when intact and non-critical, they present very little radiation risk. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/after-wwii-scienti...

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#24

Post by bragr »

23B1 wrote: post #19
wewtyflakes wrote: post #14

When the headline is asking the audience, the answer is usually no.

Article: “It must be emphasized up front that there is no official confirmation that the image was taken at Volkel Air Base, that the bent B61 shape is a real weapon (versus a trainer), or that the damage was the result of an accident (versus a training simulation).” Headline writer/editor: “Hold my beer”

>there is no official confirmation that the image was taken at Volkel Air Base, that the bent B61 shape is a real weapon (versus a trainer), or that the damage was the result of an accident (versus a training simulation)

Even if it was at Volkel, and it is a real weapon, there's no confirmation that it contains a physics package, so there may be no "nuclear" risk, even if the weapon is badly damaged.

I suspect if the core was inside, and there was a chance of it being damaged, they'd all be wearing a lot more safety gear, as plutonium is quite toxic aside from the radioactive risk.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#25

Post by WeylandYutani »

The28thDuck wrote: post #5

I remember hearing about bad OPSEC at Volkel. Something about how there was sensitive national security secrets indirectly being leaked bc soldiers didn’t set their Quizlet flashcards to private when studying for their exams.

(When Russia opened its archives in the 90s we learned were all the nukes in Europe were stored. It wasn't a secret to the KGB).

Officially to this day this is all a Dutch state secret (can neither confirm nor deny bla bla bla). But there was an interview with ex prime minister Lubbers and he talked about the nukes. The poor man's mental faculties were already slipping.

If anyone is wondering according to NATO plans as I understand it the Dutch Airforce is supposed to be under US command dropping the bombs. A bit of a democratic cluster fuck that bypasses parliament to initiate nuclear Armageddon.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#26

Post by jt2190 »

tialaramex wrote: post #10
yellow_postit wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Quite the chain of speculation built from a single image.

Officially there's no explanation for the image at all, but "It's some teenagers at my local high school, plus a lot of Photoshop" doesn't feel at all likely, does it? The idea that it's Volkel seems reasonably solid unless somebody has photographs known to be from somewhere else which look like that. We know Volkel's B61s are stored in a place exactly like that, we know most US airbases don't look exactly like that…

> Officially there's no explanation for the image at all, but "It's some teenagers at my local high school, plus a lot of Photoshop" doesn't feel at all likely, does it?

Consider that a state-level adversary would definitely want to plant “fake news” like this (done indirectly through third-parties, of course), for reasons including:

• bogging down our day-to-day operations as everyone “investigates” and “double-checks”

• observing who in our organization reacts and how, revealing personnel, command structures, and capabilities.

• undermine confidence in current leadership

To be clear I’m not saying this particular instance is fake or real, just that this is a technique that can be used to gather information or tie-up on an adversary.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#27

Post by rootusrootus »

ceejayoz wrote: post #23
bostonsre wrote: post #9

Would they be wearing protective gear if it was an actual accident? Also, the dude with the clip board doesn't look very concerned...

> Would they be wearing protective gear if it was an actual accident? Nuclear warhead cores were routinely handled by hand. Not sure if they still are, but when intact and non-critical, they present very little radiation risk. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/after-wwii-scienti...

Plutonium is quite toxic, however, and I think by now it would be normal to have some protection when working with it. And given the consequences for playing fast & loose in the past, it's likely we aren't as flippant now. Also, you're talking about the scientists, not the EOD grunts.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#28

Post by andyjohnson0 »

Overtonwindow wrote: post #15
yellow_postit wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Quite the chain of speculation built from a single image.

To be fair, it is the news media… Reporters take nuggets of information, plus buckets of speculation, and spin it into something that you will click on.

> To be fair, it is the news media…

The article in on the website of the Federation of American Scientists. Quote from their About page:

"The Federation of American Scientists is a nonprofit policy research and advocacy organization founded in 1945 to meet national security challenges with evidence-based, scientifically-driven, and nonpartisan policy, analysis, and research."

Hardly the "news media" or clickbait.

Re: Was there a U.S. nuclear weapons accident at a Dutch air base?

#29

Post by Someone »

WeylandYutani wrote: post #25
The28thDuck wrote: post #5

I remember hearing about bad OPSEC at Volkel. Something about how there was sensitive national security secrets indirectly being leaked bc soldiers didn’t set their Quizlet flashcards to private when studying for their exams.

(When Russia opened its archives in the 90s we learned were all the nukes in Europe were stored. It wasn't a secret to the KGB). Officially to this day this is all a Dutch state secret (can neither confirm nor deny bla bla bla). But there was an interview with ex prime minister Lubbers and he talked about the nukes. The poor man's mental faculties were already slipping. If anyone is wondering according to NATO plans…

> But there was an interview with ex prime minister Lubbers and he talked about the nukes.

He wasn’t the only one. FTA:

“two former Dutch prime ministers and a defense minister in 2013 even acknowledged the presence of the weapons.”

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