Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections • Hacker News Board

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#131

Post by foverzar » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 2:31 PM UTC

mcv wrote: post #85

codedokode wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

In some ways, Ukraine has already won; Putin intended to capture Kyiv in three days and completely failed to do that. He turned to some minor territory gain, but that's also going very poorly. Russia's winter campaign is almost a complete failure, with tens of thousands of lives lost for very minor gains. Ukraine is smaller than Russia, but by no means a small country. Ukraine has 40 million people and is far more mo…

> Putin intended to capture Kyiv in three days and completely failed to do that.

What exactly is that assertion even based on?

People talk like it is some kind of a definite fact, but there is no reference to any particular source or a universal explanation of how this was deduced.

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#132

Post by codedokode » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 2:31 PM UTC

glogla wrote: post #119

codedokode wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if Russia is advancing 100 meters (300 feet) a day eventually it will reach the Western point of Ukraine unless something changes.

100 meters / days is 3.6 kilometers a year. To reach western point of Ukraine, Russians need to go about 1000 kilometers - so at 100 meters a day it would take them nice 277 years. Of course, they are going slower than that. And also, at the current rate of attrition, Russia will run out of Russians long, long before that.

100 meters a day is 36.5 kilometers a year. So that's only 27 years.

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#133

Post by smcl » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 2:33 PM UTC

red-iron-pine wrote: post #126

smcl wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many thousands of high-quality Soviet tanks I'm curious why they have chosen not to deploy them, then.

Tank boneyards. Thousands of tanks but many in disrepair; the US has similar. Corruption and mixed priorities meant that most of the storage depots didn't see regular maintenance done, so vehicles that should have been "mostly workable" were basically rust-buckets. However estimates put the stockpiles at like 8000 T-72s, 10000 BMPs, etc., and even if only 1/3 of them are viable that still represents thousands of vehi…

This was my understanding too, I was wondering whether this user was confused or being dishonest :)

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#134

Post by foverzar » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 2:48 PM UTC

tokai wrote: post #92

smcl wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're saying they've got this enormous fleet of tanks that they've yet to deploy but which could turn the tide of the war ... and they're just sitting on them? I don't buy it.

Its a classic russian strategy for coping. They will state that they are choosing to loose and that they could win if they wanted. It's unclear what exactly this helps, other than making them seem incompetent and willing to let people die when it could have been avoided.

> It's unclear what exactly this helps, other than making them seem incompetent and willing to let people die when it could have been avoided.

How exactly is the massive deployment of mobile artillery supposed to result in less deaths?

In any case, the end of the war would obviously not be the end of the world. Isn't the whole point of the aid for Ukraine that it is supposed to contain Russia and deplete its military and economic capabilities?

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#135

Post by mcv » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 2:50 PM UTC

foverzar wrote: post #131

mcv wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some ways, Ukraine has already won; Putin intended to capture Kyiv in three days and completely failed to do that. He turned to some minor territory gain, but that's also going very poorly. Russia's winter campaign is almost a complete failure, with tens of thousands of lives lost for very minor gains. Ukraine is smaller than Russia, but by no means a small country. Ukraine has 40 million people and is far more mo…

> Putin intended to capture Kyiv in three days and completely failed to do that. What exactly is that assertion even based on? People talk like it is some kind of a definite fact, but there is no reference to any particular source or a universal explanation of how this was deduced.

We were alive and following the news when it happened. I'm not exactly sure what makes you doubt this. It's pretty well-reported. They fought on the outskirts of Kyiv, lost a bunch of troops and material, and eventually withdrew when they couldn't make any further progress.

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#136

Post by foverzar » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 2:56 PM UTC

red-iron-pine wrote: post #128

glogla wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're framing it as if it's China vs Belgium but Russia has about three times the population of Ukraine. And literally millions of Russian men already fled Russia rather than be conscripted. Looking at current ratio of Russian and Ukrainian losses, having three times the soldiers is not going to be enough.

Not millions. That number is probably closer to 800k. Still a lot, esp. you consider the primary draftable age groups (e.g. 18-30), and that not all males in that group would be military worthy, i.e. medical or mental disabilities, etc. Also a big deal if you consider that most of them are the wealthier, smarter, more mobile parts of the population, which will exacerbate the brain-drain and impact the economy. A lot…

> Also a big deal if you consider that most of them are the wealthier, smarter, more mobile parts of the population, which will exacerbate the brain-drain and impact the economy.

This a post-Covid era. Everything that is "smart and mobile" is also remote. Which means that physical relocation doesn't exactly imply brain drain, especially given that wealthier destinations such as the US or some parts of Europe are harder to reach then ever.

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#137

Post by willcipriano » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 3:12 PM UTC

piva00 wrote: post #124

willcipriano wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure there are zero positive signs for the Russians and they are all just idiots instead of your media claiming any they find are russian disinformation and not reporting on it. Same way the Taliban was one the ropes for two decades.

Or perhaps there's an issue with truthfulness coming from Russian sources that makes them an unreliable source for proper journalistic reporting? You aren't making your point clearer, you are just repeating "wake up, sheeple" with a different word salad...

Oh sure the Russians are lying their asses off, just like the Ukrainians and the US.

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#138

Post by medo-bear » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 3:52 PM UTC

red-iron-pine wrote: post #129

viraptor wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not very aggressive in practice at that time. And the eastern Europe did not manage very well, which western Europe paid for for quite a long time.

Most of that aggression was targeted at Eastern Europe, such as putting down uprisings in Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Which is, go figure, why Poland, the Baltics, the Czechs, etc. are so eager to support Ukraine...

it is not that clear cut. neither hungarians nor the czechs are very eager to support ukraine. same as eastern germans

https://apnews.com/article/czech-ukraine-russia-government-p...

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#139

Post by medo-bear » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 3:55 PM UTC

mcv wrote: post #109

medo-bear wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Only Putin wants this war. US, UK, Poland, the Baltics and many other countries want to defend Europe against Russia. Nobody outside Russia would complain if Putin suddenly quit his war and withdrew from Ukraine.

us certainly profited nicely from this conflict. i also doubt anyone would complain if us suddenly stopped invading and bombing

Re: Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

#140

Post by smcl » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 4:00 PM UTC

foverzar wrote: post #134

tokai wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a classic russian strategy for coping. They will state that they are choosing to loose and that they could win if they wanted. It's unclear what exactly this helps, other than making them seem incompetent and willing to let people die when it could have been avoided.

> It's unclear what exactly this helps, other than making them seem incompetent and willing to let people die when it could have been avoided. How exactly is the massive deployment of mobile artillery supposed to result in less deaths? In any case, the end of the war would obviously not be the end of the world. Isn't the whole point of the aid for Ukraine that it is supposed to contain Russia and deplete its military…

The point of the aid is to assist Ukraine in its defence. Whether Putin chooses to continue to exhaust Russian military stockpiles and crater the Russian economy in pursuit of a war that looks increasingly unwinnable is his choice.