Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're forgetting labor costs in the US are much higher and environmental regulations are much more strict. So US made panels will unlikely to ever be price competitive with the Chinese made ones.
Come on, you can make silicon monocrystalline products without pollution with appropriate controls, it's no different from the computer chip production process. See CHIPS act? China doesn't have a big natural gas / crude oil sector trying to block development of alternatives to their products, that's the difference.
For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
271–280 of 314 posts
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, they had to reopen them because their nuclear plants stopped working. Too hot, not enough water in the rivers due to climate change to cool down the nuclear plants - so they shut them off, and France was buying renewable energy from Germany. So you got your facts exactly the wrong way. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/even-crisis-germany-... Turns out, nuclear is not the end all, be all solution. Who knew?…
Maybe because it’s not a transition but an ideology driven f** up? I live near the coal plants they are firing up again. I’m all pro PV (have one), I heat my house on geothermal, I spent a ton on energy efficiency for my house. But this entire “renewable transition”, “getting out of nuclear” and coming up with other random ideas in a industry focused economy is just bogus in execution.
Not that the Germany is better than France. My point is that it s true that people who have a rage boner about Germany are not fair: if they really care about f* up, why they don't care about France?
I don't buy this idea that the German transition was an ideology driven f* up. The project was designed and supported by a lot of experts. They published their results, with their computations and all, and no real flaw was discovered. Sure, there were some pro-nuclear partisans who, like the anti-nuclear ones, would never accept that such studies were scientifically sound just because it did not say what they ideologically wanted to hear.
At the time, the project was scientifically sound. It did not work out because 1) the government did half of the things the project said it should do, 2) as every long-term project, it had some uncertainties, and it turned out some elements did not "aligned". An alternative project of keeping with nuclear generation was also scientifically sound, but it is not scientifically correct to pretend that this one was "better", or "more rational", or even "less ideological". People who come here and say "it was an ideological f* up" are just people who see it did not worked out and are not smart enough to not think "obviously, if it would have be me, I would have done it way better, the only reason it failed is because they suck and are irrational while I'm wayyyy smarter than everyone and soooo rational".
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
Electrolyzing excess energy to produce hydrogen is a good option. Sure, it is not that efficient but you can store hydrogen and it's a useful base ingredient for many industrial processes. And if you need electrical energy you just burn it in a gas-fired power plant.
Unfortunately the equipment isn't cheap (though getting cheaper), so it only makes sense if it can run a significant portion (I've heard 25% in the coming decade for germany) of the time.
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
i'd be interested in a rough breakdown of the costs if you happen to remember solarserver's photovoltaik preisindex makes it seem like that's about 10 percent pv modules and the rest is either retail markup (or tariffs) or balance of system; is that true?
Alas, I only remember that I paid what was then wholesale solar (OR) almost exactly $10k for the panels, racking, inverter, and the little optimizers that sit under every panel, then about $1k for the iron tubing for the rack, about $600 in concrete, and another $1500 on sundry electrical supplies (conduit, wiring, junction boxes etc.)
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who can generate at peak load, reliably, every hour of the day? Some areas have peak load in evening, when PV output is reduced.
Most of the components don't have a meaningful "maximum load". There's a load with 40-year life, a load with 10-year life, and a load with 160-year life (and obviously this is a continuous curve). It's okay to spend some time at 10-year life load if you can spend more time at the 160-year load than the typical model expects.
it's true that there's probably a load right at the rated load which will gradually cook the transformer over the course of 10 years or so, but that's a pretty narrow window
that's the kind of capacity that needs to be expanded
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
i have the impression that gas produces something like 40 percent less co₂ per joule than coal? in some sense that's 'low carbon'
> in some sense that's 'low carbon' It doesn't in a sense that meaningfully addresses the challenges we're facing, though.
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
you could imagine governments charging a yearly tax for having solar panels installed, analogous to the property tax many charge on real estate
Spain tried something similar and reversed course eventually. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-electricit...
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#278Earlier quoted context omitted.
it still seems that you are unaware of the distinction i was focusing on between transmission systems and distribution systems a residence that can provide some of its own power during peak hours does not need distribution, transmission, or (utility-scale) generation sized for full load; a neighborhood that can provide some of its own power during peak hours does not need transmission or (utility-scale) generation si…
Who can generate at peak load, reliably, every hour of the day? Some areas have peak load in evening, when PV output is reduced.
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree. Sometimes when you're trying to quantify something specific, it's best to use units that are topical. If you want to talk about how much CO₂ the production of a kWh of electricity (not heat) that different sources of electricity use, mass CO₂ per kWh electric generated is the most useful and intuitive unit. Differences in thermal efficiency, etc. do not matter if you're focused on getting a kWh-electric f…
the difference between kilowatt hours per gram and joules per kilogram also does not matter if you're focused on getting a kilowatt hour electric for the smallest amount of lifecycle carbon dioxide; a kilowatt hour per gram is precisely 3.6 gigajoules per kilogram, nothing more, nothing less. the only benefit of using the 'topical' units is an unnecessary risk of calculation errors and other kinds of confusion this n…
Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US
#280Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, not really. That's the impression most people have. For example, solar, in the northern hemisphere, is --to use your term-- stronger in March/April, not the summer. This is due to the panel negative temperature coefficient. > The best consistency is achieved when both are used, not one or the other. No. Wind with approximately three hours of storage is about 95% reliable. Once again, it's about power, not energy.
> No. Wind with approximately three hours of storage is about 95% reliable That isn't enough, unless you are happy with 18 days of no power per year. Of course you could maintain traditional power plans to provide power for those 18 days, but then you've doubled or tripled your power costs because you have purchased two systems for providing power. An intermittent system and a second system with the same capacity tha…
> you have purchased two systems for providing power.
Precisely! Correct!
Therein lies the problem of renewables few people seem to understand, talk about and want to talk about. Solar and wind require 100% backup for the period of time during which they are not locally available.
BTW, a good deal of what I have been saying is supported with data from this paper [0]. It analyzes 39 years of data from 42 different countries. It does a good job of displaying the difficult relationships between various mixes and solar, wind and storage. Figure 2 is excellent. It takes a bit of study to internalize. After studying these charts almost everyone should have serious questions about solar. This is where the 95% figure for wind comes from.
And, BTW, figure 2 also shows that without overbuilding capacity both technologies are challenging.
There are ways to look at using distant solar and wind to provide for power holes. For example, have wind power brought in from 500 to 1000 miles away. The idea is you know there's a seriously good probability for the weather being different enough that you cover the power holes at location A using power from location B.
That's great. The question then becomes: How do residents of location B deal with their issues when you are sucking-up their power from location A.
No simple answers to this other than to say that both solar and wind have to be overbuilt and require 100% backup --of some form, I don't care what type-- for when they cannot deliver.
And so your question is perfectly valid and one that really needs to be on the table, front and center. I have asked it before. It is usually met with attacks and insults. It can take many forms, the most basic being:
If you need full 100% reliable backup available at a moments' notice, 24/7/365, are these truly the best technologies for the job?
I have argued that nuclear is a solid solution with 100% availability and the power density to deliver our needs. That is met with even more violent attacks and insults. Apparently I am somewhere between a really stupid person and a criminal for suggesting any of this.
Having devoted a significant effort towards understanding the many intricacies surrounding these issues, my thinking has morphed over time. I used to think we had to consider deploying a massive amount of nuclear power (somewhere beyond 1000 new power plants) for a full transition to electric vehicles and homes. That, of course, is as close to impossible as one can get.
I think a sensible path might be to focus on the 95% reliability of wind (which is far better than anything solar can achieve) and provide that 5% backup with regionally shared nuclear power and other power sources. We would still need hundreds of nuclear power plants built over the next, say, 30 to 50 years. Difficult, yes.
Here's the shocking reality of a transition to full electrification (homes and transportation):
We have to, at a minimum, TRIPLE our power generation and transport capacity.
Why triple?
Well, if we are going to go clean, you have to replace all of our existing power generation with 100% reliable clean alternatives.
That means we need to build 1200 GW of new clean power generation.
As we do this, we shut down what we don't want (if we can).
Next, we need another 1200 GW --at a minimum-- to power a full fleet of electric ground vehicles.
If we start talking cargo ships and aircraft, we are likely at another 1000 GW or far more.
The task, then, is to build somewhere around 3000 to 4000 GW of new clean power generation sources. They have to be 100% reliable, or you need to grossly overbuild to compensate for that.
The, question, then: Can we do this? In 25 years? No way. How about 50 years? Maybe? Tough to say. It sure a hell isn't happening in ten or fifteen, which makes the dramatic claims being made by politicians and their supporters nothing less than ridiculous.