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What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

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Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people say this but very few have a concrete idea of what is needed to accomplish this. What taxes are the rich going to pay? Who among the rich? How does one define "rich?" Et cetera.

Taxes on real estate are the obvious answer here. Every residential property you own after your first should increase your tax burden substantially, such that you are incentived to sell them rather than hoard them and rent them out.

A Georgist, I see.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#292

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

> still gets rejected either for her financial situation or because the rental contract is already set to increase 8% each year - which we simply cannot afford. And it's not just Munich. Every city in Germany has this problem. The logical step, when individuals cannot afford their own rent, companies that need workers will be providing housing to their workers. And they will be able to evict them whenever they feel l…

And you will be happy.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#293
post #277
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not sure, I live in a rent controller apartment and it certainly is great for the many people in my apartment who work in the city but could never pay the rents. That's kind of like saying "What's so bad about zoning restrictions? I own a house and it's not affecting me at all!". Of course it's great for you and other people who have a rent controlled unit. The OP explicitly acknowledges this. The issue is for…

By the same token, op claimed rent control “never” works. But some places implement a sort of rent control that applies to all rental housing not just some. For instance, in B.C. rents are only allowed to be raised each year by a fixed percentage (calculated annually based on inflation I believe). It’s not perfect by any stretch but all renters across the province do benefit equally.

That's the problem, the renters benefit against everyone else who wants to become a renter, or anyone else that wants to increase supply.

If everyone was a renter and there were no barriers to getting a new lease in a new city - rent control would be absolutely fine - because it wouldnt do anything at all.

If somethings only beneficial if is benign, it sounds more like cancer than welfare.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#294

Only difference between Sweden and Finland is that Finland stopped all rent regulation in 1985. I was a landlord during that era, and after few years of turmoil, most rents started go down. Nowadays the rents are mostly costs + 40% -(32% capital gains tax) ie worse than most other investment. You only invest on housing because you expect home ownership raise on that area.

Isn't rental income treated as income tax? It is in the U.S. Since tax is on the profit only, the tax would be on that 40%, so 32% of 40% so ~10%. You are still walking away with 68% of 40%, so 30% of your rental income is profit.

It is not. It is pure capital gains tax. Actually it is worse than that, because it can be difficult to prove what your true gains are. Loan costs for example are not easily tax-deductible, you must establish a firm for that.

I gave up landlording altogether, because for many years it was not worth the hassle. Most areas in Helsinki it is more profitable to keep the apartment empty and wait for the rich Russian, who buys it at +50%. In this building third of the apartments are empty or short-time rentals of some sort.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#295
post #245
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually death, disease, or divorce will force properties to sell. That will move market values down. Meanwhile, my buddy’s mobile home manufacturer is back to being able to output a home in weeks. Construction has already fallen off a cliff-which makes sense given that’s the easiest to spin up/down of the market. The RE market is responding to the rates. Though, whether it’ll be enough is beyond my knowledge or po…

That assumes that the entities buying the housing are subject to death, disease, and divorce. From 2022: Investors bought a record share of homes in 2021. See where. - https://wapo.st/3ZDSZqm Strong Towns from 2022: Corporate Investors Own Nearly Half of This City's Residential Property - https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2022/5/25/corporate-inve...

Damn, I did not expect that city to be Newark.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#296
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it collapse? There’s insatiable demand for extreme limited property. Interest rate hikes may lower the price of property but the interest will rise proportionately. Do people really think at sone point no one will want premium property and I’ll finally get it cheap? Of course that will never happen.

If it doesn't collapse, then society may collapse? Like the sibling comment mentioned, you can only push this too far, and I think it's pushed too far to be very alarming. And housing is expensive by design and not by constraint. I'm staying in KL, a comparatively cheap place by Western standards. The housing market is crap here from a seller perspective as you have an over-supply of condos. That, despite the large a…

> Young people will prefer to live in these 20-sqm things (and have shared amenities/no car) than lose a significant percentage of their income to housing. Of course, some of the powers are holding on this because it'll affect their artificially made limited supply of houses.

The people most vocally opposed to these buildings (which I support) in the United States are liberals/progressives who say those types of living situations are unacceptable, and hold out for the magic beans of large apartments/houses at well-below market prices. Unsurprisingly, this only makes prices go up.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#297
post #44
post #7

The main problem is the terrible rent control system - with a lucky few getting rent-controlled first-hand contracts, and everyone else facing a cut-throat almost completely unregulated market of sub-letting. Rent control never works.

Very true. I wanted to buy an investment property in Sweden, and rent it out while waiting for prices to go back up in a few years... but learned that this is not a thing here! If you want to rent out, you need permission of your building association, which normally won't give it... or you can buy a "detached house" (no association) which is usually much more expensive, but then you must deal with renters and find th…

This is probably why there is a lack of construction then. In my city (small European capital) most new properties are marketed as investments - with the idea you buy and after a few years sell for more than you paid or rent it covering the mortgage. The real estate market here is still not amazing for the lowest earners, but for anyone even remotely middle class they are doing ok. On the supply side the number of properties is growing at a consistent rate.

The biggest issue here is the total mortgage interest you pay is already 5% and EURIBOR is set to continue growing (mortgage interest is not fixed, it's recalculated every 6 months). For a lot of apartments in the city centre, the rental price is less than the equivalent mortgage payments if you were to buy today. A crash is likely coming, and the first thing that will be cut is new construction.

However most people want apartments in the city... Last year I moved 20 minutes drive / 40 mins by bus into the suburbs and bought a 140sqm house. The price I paid was less than a new 50sqm apartment would cost anywhere close to the main parts of the city.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#298

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

> We are already looking to move to other places Moving doesn’t necessarily help much. That is because usually house prices are directly driven by how much people can loan on a mortgage, which is directly driven by earnings. Cheaper housing often means lower earnings potential. Conversely, saving in a high earning country can mean you have a deposit for a house in a cheaper country. Edit: Counterintuitively, high int…

Moving can help a lot. There is a huge difference in home ownership rates between US states. A lot of people in Iowa have been buying their own homes.

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/homeownership-rate-...

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an immigrant and got really burned during the Harper admin (Kenny's handling of immigration destroyed my life). That basically meant my options are Liberal or NDP. NDP policies seem to think if I make more than 200K, I am a rich fat cat (ignore that I have a freakin PhD at the cost of a delay in buying a house - effectively making me far poorer in wealth terms than someone with a mediocre undergrad who bought a p…

> That basically meant my options are Liberal or NDP. NDP policies seem to think if I make more than 200K, I am a rich fat cat If you make $200k a year, you've got almost 3x the average household income in canada ($75k). You're way up there in terms of wealth, and don't need any help from the NDP or anyone else.

Wealth != income. Someone who bought a house 10 years ago could easily be wealthier than someone pulling down $200k today.
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