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AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

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Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The "conscious superintelligent AI" is a scifi LARPing game that some people are getting paid to play Thinking our meat brain's consciousness is somehow special, and our intelligence can't be surpassed by a machine, sounds much more like a religion to me. AI researchers are working towards making intelligent machines. Why are we supposed to believe that - if they manage to achieve their goal - these machines won't…

> Thinking our meat brain's consciousness is somehow special, and our intelligence can't be surpassed by a machine, sounds much more like a religion to me. Lucky I didn't say anything remotely like that, then. > AI researchers are working towards making intelligent machines. Why are we supposed to believe that - if they manage to achieve their goal - these machines won't surpass our intelligence? I didn't say that th…

“For all we know, human-level intelligence could be a tradeoff. Maybe any entity significantly smarter than a human being would be crippled by existential despair, or spend all its time in Buddha-like contemplation.”

That would probably be quickly optimised out by the training process as it’s an inefficient way to achieve a goal. The only basis for this argument is that humans are smarter than other animals and this seems unique to humans but it’s probably just a quirk of humans

“With a big enough gap in intelligence, there's no guarantee that an entity would be able to "think like a human" any more than we can "think like a cat".”

LLMs are clearly already very good at “thinking like a human”

“he still couldn't talk the cat into it.”

Because cats can’t talk? Humans can, and can clearly be manipulated into doing things, sometimes even by current AI

“So how are we supposed to solve ethics and code a moral fixed point for a recursively self-improving intelligence” “ The idea that we can securely design the most complex system ever built, and have it remain secure through thousands of rounds of recursive self-modification, does not match our experience.”

Yes, that is why AI alignment is hard, that’s an argument for that view, not one against it

“I don't buy this argument at all. Complex minds are likely to have complex motivations; that may be part of what it even means to be intelligent.”

This is a clear misunderstanding of what it means to be intelligent. It doesn’t mean “do things that humans find impressive”, it means “achieve your goal effectively”. An AI that goes against its own goals is not intelligent, would not achieve its training objective and the training process (which somewhat resembles evolution) would optimise it out in the next step of training in the same way that a species that immediately throws itself off the nearest cliff will not survive to the next generation. You can imagine a superintelligence as something that goes over all the actions it could take, sees what reward it would get according to its goal and picks that action. The intelligence here is in the world model it uses to predict the consequences of its actions, picking what actions to take is a simple “max over array” function so saying it will randomly decide to persue a more meaningful objective is like saying that a sorting algorithm will put a list in the wrong order because it thinks some other order is more meaningful

(I will continue in a new comment in case there’s some kind of length limit)

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Thinking our meat brain's consciousness is somehow special, and our intelligence can't be surpassed by a machine, sounds much more like a religion to me. Lucky I didn't say anything remotely like that, then. > AI researchers are working towards making intelligent machines. Why are we supposed to believe that - if they manage to achieve their goal - these machines won't surpass our intelligence? I didn't say that th…

“For all we know, human-level intelligence could be a tradeoff. Maybe any entity significantly smarter than a human being would be crippled by existential despair, or spend all its time in Buddha-like contemplation.” That would probably be quickly optimised out by the training process as it’s an inefficient way to achieve a goal. The only basis for this argument is that humans are smarter than other animals and this…

“When we look at where AI is actually succeeding, it's not in complex, recursively self-improving algorithms.”

That’s because humans are better at this currently. When AIs get better at this than humans they can take over the process and improve a lot faster

“My roommate was the smartest person I ever met in my life. He was incredibly brilliant, and all he did was lie around and play World of Warcraft between bong rips.

The assumption that any intelligent agent will want to recursively self-improve, let alone conquer the galaxy, to better achieve its goals makes unwarranted assumptions about the nature of motivation.”

Humans are satisficers, not maximisers. If we can figure out how to build a satisficer, great, but we can’t do that currently. Also maybe humans are this way because we have historically needed to conserve energy to to survive, AI may not have that constraint in the same way https://youtu.be/Ao4jwLwT36M

“I can't point to the part of my brain that is "good at neurosurgery", operate on it, and by repeating the procedure make myself the greatest neurosurgeon that has ever lived. Ben Carson tried that, and look what happened to him. Brains don't work like that. They are massively interconnected.”

But it doesn’t need to do that, it just needs to give itself more compute, which is something you can’t do to humans. Also by this argument it should be impossible for humans to make any progress on AI as well

“Moreover, the first AI will only have humans to interact with—its development will necessarily take place on human timescales. It will have a period when it needs to interact with the world, with people in the world, and other baby superintelligences to learn to be what it is.”

This needs to happen in the training process or the AI won’t successfully achieve its goal during training and get the training loss down, and again, that trait will be optimised out in favour of AI architectures that don’t require this.

How long did ChatGPT need to interact with humans after its initial training before it worked properly? No time at all, it doesn’t even need to learn at all after the training. And training is done on a computer and can be sped up millions of times

“Similarly, if you stranded Intel's greatest chip designers on a desert island, it would be centuries before they could start building microchips again.”

But AI can build on what humans have created to improve itself until it really is intelligent enough to invent everything itself

“What kind of person does sincerely believing this stuff turn you into? The answer is not pretty.”

Completely irrelevant to what will actually happen. This is like deciding climate change policy based of what “kind of person” believing in climate change will “turn you into”

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is a much more realistic example: https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1641806556038676481 In general, the argument "All the examples how AI would overpower us are way too exotic for my taste" is like one chimpanzee complaining to another chimpanzee "Your example how humans would overpower us is totally implausible and not worth taking seriously." The mistake is that both have not the intelligence to invent or u…

I'm just not seeing any real examples, exotic or otherwise, of how to recognize the risks involved in superhuman AI. Smarter than us does not imply any particular will or agency. Of course the will and agency of the people employing the technology will reveal its immediate impact, likely toward short term profit, and alignment as a control plane employed toward the same. Chimpanzees have limited control over humans,…

"Recognize the risk" what does that mean? That advanced AI would could overpower us? That it is likely that it would want to overpower us?

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found LW to be a great community for understanding rationality about anything other than AI. The GAI that LW is concerned about is a suspiciously perfect fit for the yahweh-shaped-hole in the belief structures of someone who was raised as an observant jew before turning to atheism. The structure of how they believe humanity would engage with such an intelligence could drop in alongside any other apocalyptic prophec…

Oh my god will you people stop with the bullshit psychoanalysis. People disagree about things all the time, it's normal, you don't need to invoke this pseudo-Freudian nonsense to explain why people disagree with you about the risks of AI. You can do better than this.

When a person reveres the writings of their society's founding fathers and considers them virtually infallible, it's helpful to understand that they were raised with a belief framework shaped around apostles and testaments.

When a person is certain that an all-powerful entity will arise, and that a single person will shape and bind humanity's relationship with that entity through legalistic discourse, it's helpful to understand that they were raised with a belief framework around prophets and messiahs who bargain with an all-powerful god to define covenants.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My lower-bound model of "how a sufficiently powerful intelligence would kill everyone, if it didn't want to not do that" is that it gets access to the Internet, emails some DNA sequences to any of the many many online firms that will take a DNA sequence in the email and ship you back proteins, and bribes/persuades some human who has no idea they're dealing with an AGI to mix proteins in a beaker, which then form a…

You are demanding "believable science" from a chimpanzee of how humans would overpower them. Do you not recognize the enormous difference intelligence makes? And there does not seem to be a hard constraint of how much more intelligent than a human an AI could become. Their brains are not tightly restricted by size and energy. The difference could be much greater than between chimpanzee and human.

But that’s just an unfalsifiable argument that could literally argue for anything. “I’m worried AIs will figure out how to go back in time and kill our last universal common ancestor.” “Explain how that is even believable.” “AI will be too smart, I can’t.” That’s not an argument; the burden of proof is to at least explain why the proposed doom scenario is not incompatible with the laws of physics.

> Their brains are not tightly restricted by size and energy.

I’m not sure that’s true. Computer cycles cost real money. And the scaling required to get us to GTP-4 makes me think, assuming super intelligent AGI is even possible, it’s going to have to run up a pretty noticeable AWS bill…

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#186

I've seen multiple top people in AGI space say that total annihilation threat from AGI exists. I think I've heard Karpathy say something along the lines of worst case scenario of AGI is worse than a nuclear armageddon on Lex Friedman podcast. Honestly the fear of AGI worst-case scenario is worse than any other fear I've experienced. I've accepted the fact that I can die a long time ago, I was afraid but mortality is…

AI can also completely liberate all of us. This fear mongering is irrational. We already live in an extremely advanced reality, with organic life having organic nanomachines performing incredibly complex operations in a universe, in realtime, performing impossibly complex calculations. Even to simulate a square meter of our universe in realtime is outlandishly beyond our compute access. Perhaps AI unleashes the creat…

You and parent are two sides of the same utopia/dystopia coin.

Something which is powerful enough to completely liberate and categorically change humanity is also just one bug or mistake away from being humanity's greatest disaster. Similarly, a force intelligent and powerful enough to systematically wipe out all humans could probably be repurposed for human liberation. Like splitting the atom, it is just power. So far humans have not figured out a way to build in benevolence (or malevolence) to power; it will be used by whatever intelligence can acquire it. Power raises the stakes but it doesn't set the direction.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just not seeing any real examples, exotic or otherwise, of how to recognize the risks involved in superhuman AI. Smarter than us does not imply any particular will or agency. Of course the will and agency of the people employing the technology will reveal its immediate impact, likely toward short term profit, and alignment as a control plane employed toward the same. Chimpanzees have limited control over humans,…

"Recognize the risk" what does that mean? That advanced AI would could overpower us? That it is likely that it would want to overpower us?

Your link suggests the relative likelihood of AI destroying all carbon based life or saving the world from "various stupidities". If it is somewhere in between in its influence, and changes anything, isn't it still reasonable to call it a risk?

OP promised a list of scenarios by which AGI leads to total devastation, with strong language for GP. For clarity, I don't think that it is very likely that an unimaginable silicon takeover is the most probable outcome. But like with the gun or the printing press, there will be winners and losers, and society will shift.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#188

We're already seeing jobs being done by AI. Many creative jobs that would take a team a week to handle are being shopped out to a bot to handle in an hour. VFX are going to get hit particularly hard by this. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a visually stunning film yet had a 6-member team handling graphics post. They were smart, but they also shopped out all the dull rotoscoping work to AI. Look at any Marvel fil…

It’s so wonderful to see all the artsy people get automated out of existence after claiming that software engineers contribute nothing to society. The only downside is that even more of them will now be living off of taxpayer money than before.

It's coming for coders at the same time that it comes for artists.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#189
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That link is not at all a list of "why AI is extremely dangerous and extremely likely to kill us all". I skimmed it (there's a lot of writing assuming grave danger) but found only the following example of AI lethality, and it appears fantastical: > ...nanomachinery builds diamondoid bacteria, that replicate with solar power and atmospheric CHON, maybe aggregate into some miniature rockets or jets so they can ride the…

Here is a much more realistic example: https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1641806556038676481 In general, the argument "All the examples how AI would overpower us are way too exotic for my taste" is like one chimpanzee complaining to another chimpanzee "Your example how humans would overpower us is totally implausible and not worth taking seriously." The mistake is that both have not the intelligence to invent or u…

I don’t think those examples are believable, there’s a ton of hand waving like “secretly hack and install secret copies” and “automate the economy” (what does that even mean)

(In science fiction everyone gets a perfect robot butler. In the real world, the poorest 20% never get one, another 20% cancel the monthly subscription, another chunk forget to keep it charged or accidentally pour juice on it or live inside a concrete apartment that blocks the satellite signal that now is the time to use the sharp knife)

I don’t think the analogy holds either. Chimpanzees were not smart enough to invent humans. The higher you ascend levels of intelligence, the higher ability you have both to imagine what a higher level would be like and to understand potential constraints it might have. A lack of imagination is not evidence against the hypothesis, but it’s also not evidence that the probability is more than 1 in a billion (or whatever)

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#190
I think it goes deeper than that. I think some are exploiting "end time" religious fears in America to get AI taken away and restricted from the public because a public empowered by AI is a threat to the current power structure. This isn't any different than what has already gone on in America, just now with AI

For example, Peter Doocy of Fox made a point of reading outloud at a White House press briefing the words of Eliezer Yudkowsky: "If we don't shut down AI everyone on Earth will die" Evangelicals watch Fox. They were the target. Doocy didn't have to read such dramatic words aloud. He could have said something much more neutral.

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