AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion • Hacker News Board

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#101

Post by blibble » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

antonvs wrote: post #96

The_Colonel wrote: post #11

> Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist. That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. (Some) scientists were rightfully worried when creating a nuclear bomb as well. The fact that we managed to survive 70 years with its existence does not automat…

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

> The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end up being the same thing.

something as stupid as bitcoin consumed a vast amount of resources while producing nothing useful to humanity, simply because of economic incentives

it's not difficult to imagine something slightly smarter than bitcoin

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#102

Post by dragonwriter » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

moonchrome wrote: post #88

dragonwriter wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've seen multiple top people in AGI space say that total annihilation threat from AGI exists. I've seen lots of people with a financial interest in AI that is adversely impacted by it being democratized spread fear of that alongside advocacy of regulating AI in a way which serves their financial interests. > We’ve had inquisitions historically, I would very much support a global AI inquisition. Aside from the (cur…

> I've seen lots of people with a financial interest in AI that is adversely impacted by it being democratized spread fear of that alongside advocacy of regulating AI in a way which serves their financial interests. Given the rate of progress, shitshow management of basic alignment issues and the incentives that lead to those decisions - what's your argument that this isn't probable? You're betting that it just can't…

> Given the rate of progress, shitshow management of basic alignment issues and the incentives that lead to those decisions - what’s your argument that this isn’t probable?

It would be nice if the argument I made about relative probability and relative temporal imminence was an argument about absolutes of either, but…it’s not, so I’m not going to defend those hypothetical arguments.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#103

Post by blibble » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 6:54 PM UTC

akvadrako wrote: post #90

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Things might be fine"? This doesn't seem like a sufficiently convincing take? It takes 20 years of due diligence and environmental impact studies just to build a single hydroelectric dam, if not 50. Why should our attitude toward AI be to shrug and hope for the best?

It's easy to stop a dam. It's in a physical location controlled by one country.

there are maybe 2 or 3 factories capable of producing these chips

and the sanctions mechanism already exists

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#104

Post by version_five » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 6:55 PM UTC

antonvs wrote: post #96

The_Colonel wrote: post #11

> Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist. That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. (Some) scientists were rightfully worried when creating a nuclear bomb as well. The fact that we managed to survive 70 years with its existence does not automat…

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

Happy I saw this comment, I hope this is indicative of the majority of those with some actual understanding of the subject, and the sensational stuff that gets attention is really just cult leaders and followers seeking attention.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#105

Post by 23B1 » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 6:55 PM UTC

deschutes wrote: post #82

23B1 wrote: post #65

Something can go wrong (premise). Therefore, something will go wrong (invalid conclusion). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_probability Sure seems to me that the whole Lesswrong crowd has forgotten their founding principles around cognitive biases. Or maybe they're just having a bit of fun riding the hypecycle.

Who knows. It's completely uncharted territory. It's not hard to imagine how malevolent AGI could end us. The illusion of control over something that may well have incomprehensible intelligence is a joke. Tell me, what control does the farm animal have over its own fate?

That it is completely uncharted territory is exactly my point – which is why when people string together a series of predictions to build a narrative that happens to appeal to our most base instincts, e.g. fear, we should be highly skeptical.

Obviously there is a wide range of possibilities from the utopian, to the benign, to the apocalyptic.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#106

Post by The_Colonel » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:00 PM UTC

antonvs wrote: post #96

The_Colonel wrote: post #11

> Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist. That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. (Some) scientists were rightfully worried when creating a nuclear bomb as well. The fact that we managed to survive 70 years with its existence does not automat…

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

> The "conscious superintelligent AI" is a scifi LARPing game that some people are getting paid to play

Thinking our meat brain's consciousness is somehow special, and our intelligence can't be surpassed by a machine, sounds much more like a religion to me.

AI researchers are working towards making intelligent machines. Why are we supposed to believe that - if they manage to achieve their goal - these machines won't surpass our intelligence?

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#107

Post by antonvs » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:00 PM UTC

blibble wrote: post #101

antonvs wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

> The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end up being the same thing. something as stupid as bitcoin consumed a vast amount of resources while producing nothing useful to humanity, simply because of economic incentives it's not difficult to imagine something slightly smarter than bitcoin

> it's not difficult to imagine something slightly smarter than bitcoin

I'm not saying there aren't risks from AI, or that they shouldn't be considered. But risks like the ones you're alluding to are not going to be affected by a 6-month moratorium.

The problem is that the people yelling loudest about risks are not talking about plausible problems like the one you mention, they're worrying that an AI will decide to take over the world and reuse the atoms that make up humans for its own purposes. The first reply to LeCun's tweet is a leader of one of those cults.

If people make the mistake of listening to them, we're more likely to end up with problems like the ones you're describing, because we'll be paying attention to the wrong, imagined problems.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#108

Post by olalonde » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:01 PM UTC

antonvs wrote: post #96

The_Colonel wrote: post #11

> Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist. That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. (Some) scientists were rightfully worried when creating a nuclear bomb as well. The fact that we managed to survive 70 years with its existence does not automat…

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

Is your argument that we're far away from developing a "conscious superintelligent AI" or that it's not possible in principle?

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#109

Post by olalonde » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:04 PM UTC

version_five wrote: post #70

The_Colonel wrote: post #11

> Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist. That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. (Some) scientists were rightfully worried when creating a nuclear bomb as well. The fact that we managed to survive 70 years with its existence does not automat…

We really need some perspective here. One one side is a force capable of unleashing unfathomable amounts of energy, with all kinds of additional negative side effects, that has both been extensively demonstrated and has been used for mass destruction. On the other is a chatbot, that could what, "spew misinformation", take our jobs, someday through a mechanism not known and not related to how it works become sentient…

Talking about perspective, do you maintain your prediction[0] that no meaningful business cases will emerge from generative AI?

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34197033

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#110

Post by antonvs » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:10 PM UTC

The_Colonel wrote: post #106

antonvs wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

> The "conscious superintelligent AI" is a scifi LARPing game that some people are getting paid to play Thinking our meat brain's consciousness is somehow special, and our intelligence can't be surpassed by a machine, sounds much more like a religion to me. AI researchers are working towards making intelligent machines. Why are we supposed to believe that - if they manage to achieve their goal - these machines won't…

> Thinking our meat brain's consciousness is somehow special, and our intelligence can't be surpassed by a machine, sounds much more like a religion to me.

Lucky I didn't say anything remotely like that, then.

> AI researchers are working towards making intelligent machines. Why are we supposed to believe that - if they manage to achieve their goal - these machines won't surpass our intelligence?

I didn't say that they couldn't. In fact in certain respects, GPT-4 has already surpassed average human intelligence. No human in the world could compete with its rate of correct answers to arbitrary questions, for example, or its speed in writing computer programs up to a certain size. Yet no-one is seriously concerned that GPT-4 will end the world. For that doomer scenario to come to pass, we need to add various fantasy elements (even calling it "scifi" perhaps gives it too much credit.) At this point, I'll refer you to this as a good intro for why the AI doomer cultists are misguided: https://idlewords.com/talks/superintelligence.htm