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Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

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Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#51

Post by JKCalhoun »

paxys wrote: post #36
KaiserPro wrote: post #32

hahaha, meta are going to have to actually compete. I suspect the MR experience will suck from apple, but the reality distortion field thats still lingering will tide them through. At least we know that the apple device, whilst limited in screens and slam, will have a decent software stack that will put consumer's ease of use first, rather than bullshit promotion driven dev from oculus.

This is in fact the best thing that can happen to Meta. At the moment no one really knows or cares about VR/AR. If Apple successfully takes it mainstream then they would have done what years of Meta's marketing campaigns couldn't, and suddenly they'll have a real market to compete in. Heck they don't even have to be better at it. Playing the Google/Android role is good enough.

> and suddenly they'll have a real market to compete in

With ads.

Good luck, Meta.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#52

Post by bastawhiz »

adfm wrote: post #16
nunodonato wrote: post #5

I wonder if we'll now see "VR was a bad bet", when everyone is turning into LLMs and hoping Apples comes up with something on their own.

What if LLMs are the killer app? https://lukashoel.github.io/text-to-room/

I'm unconvinced that actually making the content is the problem. We had SketchUp fifteen years ago and that made it stupid easy to make some really killer 3d content. I don't think being able to use natural language removes the barriers to it taking off.

The real problem isn't the shapes (there's plenty of free meshes out there), it's making them interactive, which is a complicated problem that extends well beyond the capabilities of our current generation of LLMs. Just look at Roblox: it's successful because you can make the world do stuff. But we can be pretty sure that just making VR/AR Roblox doesn't make a killer app.

The challenge that a killer app for VR/AR needs to overcome is being more than a glorified art gallery.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#53

Post by JKCalhoun »

lockhouse wrote: post #9
smoldesu wrote: post #4

> With that in mind, executives are striking a realistic tone within the company. This isn’t going to be a hit product right out of the gate. But it could follow a similar trajectory as the Apple Watch. Their confidence is blinding.

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/global-smartwatch-shipm... If it follows the Apple Watch, then it will be the undisputed market leader in the product segment, which honestly I think it will. The competition is very weak. Meta's efforts have largely failed with the MetaVerse and their whole ecosystem seams very stagnant. Valve and HTC aren't doing much in this space. Sony's PSVR is promising, but it is completely…

> If it follows the Apple Watch

At $3000 it is already nothing like the Apple Watch. That's the real deal breaker that I see.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#54

Post by [deleted] »

etempleton wrote: post #41

If it is as described I think it is insane for Apple to launch this product. Comparing it to the state of the Apple Watch is pretty strange because if nothing else the Apple Watch was functional, self contained, worked, and was under $1,000. Even if it didn’t work you could put it on and ignore it. A VR/AR headset is nothing like that and at $3,000 is a significant investment for most everyone. But who knows. I haven…

[deleted]

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#55

Post by JKCalhoun »

mpweiher wrote: post #23
Overtonwindow wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate? I have not found a use for a VR headset or the Apple Watch, beyond as a toy, or fashion accessory. Even then, it's been so long since I've worn a watch that wearing a watch is awkward. Yet apparently Apple sells a lot of them, and it is the smart watch with the highest number of global sales.

I was super-skeptical about the Apple Watch. Particularly as it didn't show the time. (Initial versions didn't have enough power to keep the display on all the time). Apple finally got me by fixing that and by making their phones too large to carry around while running. Grrr. But glad they did. It's been eye-opening. The fitness and sleep tracking are fantastic, and if you are having issues in that area, potentially…

If it had a camera I think I would leave my phone at home.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#56

Post by randomifcpfan »

iamleppert wrote: post #35

HoloLens is (soon to be was) a great AR device. Certainly useable and competent but it suffered from the same issue over and over: once the gee wiz demo was over, outside of a few very niche uses, people went back to using their laptops and smartphones. Because it’s easier to just pull out your smartphone, get whatever you need done, then put it back in your pocket. This rapid and random access is why people love sma…

As I understand it, Apple is expected to only introduce a VR headset this year, like the new Sony VR headset or the high end Oculus. Apple’s AR headset is still many years away.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#57

Post by JKCalhoun »

staminade wrote: post #33
paxys wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More than that, I think the underlying problem is that people simply don't want VR/AR. Decades of science fiction writing has convinced us that it is the future, but like..why?

Because as depicted in scf-fi, VR would be amazing. The ability to plug-in, or walk onto a holodeck, and frictionlessly experience literally any experience, in perfect, complete sensory detail. Believing people wouldn't want that means disregarding human nature entirely. The problem with VR/AR is that they anything but frictionless or perfect. They are expensive, uncomfortable and limited. They are a million miles aw…

Yeah, but that's not a headset — that's more like being jacked into the matrix (or "Brainscan" (1994) if you like). We may still have another 50 years before that is ready.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#58

Post by junofan »

etempleton wrote: post #41

If it is as described I think it is insane for Apple to launch this product. Comparing it to the state of the Apple Watch is pretty strange because if nothing else the Apple Watch was functional, self contained, worked, and was under $1,000. Even if it didn’t work you could put it on and ignore it. A VR/AR headset is nothing like that and at $3,000 is a significant investment for most everyone. But who knows. I haven…

Bet your manager’s manager’s manager will get one. Then your manager’s manager. Then your manager.

If you sit on Zoom calls all day it sounds amazing.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#59

Post by hnbear »

etempleton wrote: post #41

If it is as described I think it is insane for Apple to launch this product. Comparing it to the state of the Apple Watch is pretty strange because if nothing else the Apple Watch was functional, self contained, worked, and was under $1,000. Even if it didn’t work you could put it on and ignore it. A VR/AR headset is nothing like that and at $3,000 is a significant investment for most everyone. But who knows. I haven…

Watches, phones, and music players also all existed for a long time, and weren't a huge leap.

Sure, smart watches were called revolutionary, but the first Apple Watch told the time and was fun but mostly unusable for much else. The notifications popped up, but actual interaction was so slow. But that's fine. It was great to have a watch (a >100 year old device), that shows texts.

Same for phones - it was just iterative, but done well.

Music players - obviously, around for a long, long time, and people were well used to portable tape, CD, and minidisk players, and even basic MP3 players existed.

This is a genuinely evolutionary change. People aren't used to information privately beamed to their eye-balls, walking around with glasses sure, but those don't provide information like a mechanical watch did, so not sure that's the analogy.

It's a Mac all over again - something actually new, interesting, and needing a killer app.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#60

Post by dev_tty01 »

smoldesu wrote: post #37
lockhouse wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/global-smartwatch-shipm... If it follows the Apple Watch, then it will be the undisputed market leader in the product segment, which honestly I think it will. The competition is very weak. Meta's efforts have largely failed with the MetaVerse and their whole ecosystem seams very stagnant. Valve and HTC aren't doing much in this space. Sony's PSVR is promising, but it is completely…

I'm not sure if I agree. What is there to disrupt? Really think about that statement for a minute. Maybe telepresence if you market it right, but the money is all in gaming and social use. And if you're gonna buy a headset, would you rather get the $300 one with Beat Saber and VR Chat, or cough up $3,000 for FaceTime in VR? I think Meta has done all they can here. It's frankly a shock they managed to sell over 10 mil…

Well said. There is no Apple-scale market to disrupt. If the largest market for the wearable remains as gaming, Apple is in a very poor position since they have always only begrudgingly embraced gaming.

This isn't about disruption, this is about creating a new market.

If I think of myself as an example, I don't have interest in the gaming angle. If it is comfortable enough and the experience is great, I might buy it for telepresence, if for no other reason than richer visits with my children on the other side of the country. Maybe there is some other use I would buy into, but I'm sure not seeing it yet.

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