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Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

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Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#31

Post by anonymouse008 »

DantesKite wrote: post #26
anonymouse008 wrote: post #18

This will be as successful as Animojis. This headset will have a loyal customer base, will make a big splash, but will not transform computing, creative work, or anything for the everyday user. Apple Watch got so extremely lucky. I do not ever want to see Apple make product decisions like 'well this worked, so let's see if this will, too.' There is zero taste in that, zero craftsmanship, it's just AppleGPT Product Ed…

How much would you be willing to bet on this?

Probably more than you're comfortable with. Seriously reach out to the email in profile.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#32

Post by KaiserPro »

hahaha, meta are going to have to actually compete. I suspect the MR experience will suck from apple, but the reality distortion field thats still lingering will tide them through.

At least we know that the apple device, whilst limited in screens and slam, will have a decent software stack that will put consumer's ease of use first, rather than bullshit promotion driven dev from oculus.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#33

Post by staminade »

paxys wrote: post #24
root_axis wrote: post #20

My prediction: it will suck. Why? All AR devices suck, the tech just isn't there.

More than that, I think the underlying problem is that people simply don't want VR/AR. Decades of science fiction writing has convinced us that it is the future, but like..why?

Because as depicted in scf-fi, VR would be amazing. The ability to plug-in, or walk onto a holodeck, and frictionlessly experience literally any experience, in perfect, complete sensory detail. Believing people wouldn't want that means disregarding human nature entirely.

The problem with VR/AR is that they anything but frictionless or perfect. They are expensive, uncomfortable and limited. They are a million miles away from what's depicted in sci-fi and likely will be for decades, perhaps hundreds of years. If anything, the sci-fi dream works against them by illustrating just what a stark difference there is between fiction and (artificial) reality.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#34

Post by paxys »

voisin wrote: post #28

Initial product will be weak, just like the original iPhone (no App Store, slow, poor battery life, etc) and Apple Watch (no development, no health tracking, small screen, poor battery life). The thing about Apple is not to judge based on v.1 but to watch the iteration. They are the most persistent company in the world. Compare to Google which seems to have ADHD. Apple will iterate and iterate and in 5 years we’ll al…

Where was this persistent iteration and overnight success with Homepod, Airpower, butterfly keyboards, touchbar, force touch, MobileMe, Ping?

Apple has had its share of failures like any other company, and kills products like any other company. There is plenty of precedence for their AR headset to just fizzle out.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#35

Post by iamleppert »

HoloLens is (soon to be was) a great AR device. Certainly useable and competent but it suffered from the same issue over and over: once the gee wiz demo was over, outside of a few very niche uses, people went back to using their laptops and smartphones. Because it’s easier to just pull out your smartphone, get whatever you need done, then put it back in your pocket.

This rapid and random access is why people love smartphones so much. With a headset, you either have to be wearing it all the time (something people aren’t willing to do; it’s like wearing sunglasses indoors no matter how good the waveguides are) or have to take the time to take a fragile headset out of its case, put it on your head, adjust to the complete take over of your field of view & environment, then figure out what you need to do using an input modality (be it voice, gestures, an input peripheral or some combination) that is far inferior to a touch interface for the 90% of tasks.

People like to claim that AR is less intrusive than a smartphone but all the cases they present are carefully crafted demo’s. If you watch actual people use AR devices trying to accomplish some task you immediately notice that isn’t true at all.

It will be interesting to see how Apple has addressed these problems but AR needs to be better at doing tasks average people can already do well with a smartphone, and like I mentioned you have an uphill battle due to the headset form factor alone.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#36

Post by paxys »

KaiserPro wrote: post #32

hahaha, meta are going to have to actually compete. I suspect the MR experience will suck from apple, but the reality distortion field thats still lingering will tide them through. At least we know that the apple device, whilst limited in screens and slam, will have a decent software stack that will put consumer's ease of use first, rather than bullshit promotion driven dev from oculus.

This is in fact the best thing that can happen to Meta. At the moment no one really knows or cares about VR/AR. If Apple successfully takes it mainstream then they would have done what years of Meta's marketing campaigns couldn't, and suddenly they'll have a real market to compete in. Heck they don't even have to be better at it. Playing the Google/Android role is good enough.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#37

Post by smoldesu »

lockhouse wrote: post #9
smoldesu wrote: post #4

> With that in mind, executives are striking a realistic tone within the company. This isn’t going to be a hit product right out of the gate. But it could follow a similar trajectory as the Apple Watch. Their confidence is blinding.

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/global-smartwatch-shipm... If it follows the Apple Watch, then it will be the undisputed market leader in the product segment, which honestly I think it will. The competition is very weak. Meta's efforts have largely failed with the MetaVerse and their whole ecosystem seams very stagnant. Valve and HTC aren't doing much in this space. Sony's PSVR is promising, but it is completely…

I'm not sure if I agree.

What is there to disrupt?

Really think about that statement for a minute. Maybe telepresence if you market it right, but the money is all in gaming and social use. And if you're gonna buy a headset, would you rather get the $300 one with Beat Saber and VR Chat, or cough up $3,000 for FaceTime in VR?

I think Meta has done all they can here. It's frankly a shock they managed to sell over 10 million Quest units, it would be a miracle if Apple can ship over a million at the price they're considering. Even if they do get the coveted iPhone-level install-base (fat chance), Apple cut ties with industry standards like OpenXR and SteamVR years ago. Their entire ecosystem will have to get built up from scratch, and they'll also have to fend off competitors selling units at literally 10% of the price.

For Apple to become the undisputed market leader in this product segment, they'd need a lot more than just a headset that exists. This project is looking less Apple Watch and more Apple Newton.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#38

Post by [deleted] »

cjdoc29 wrote: post #30
anonymouse008 wrote: post #18

This will be as successful as Animojis. This headset will have a loyal customer base, will make a big splash, but will not transform computing, creative work, or anything for the everyday user. Apple Watch got so extremely lucky. I do not ever want to see Apple make product decisions like 'well this worked, so let's see if this will, too.' There is zero taste in that, zero craftsmanship, it's just AppleGPT Product Ed…

I am doubtful their VR product will be great if released within this or next year. > Apple Watch got so extremely lucky But given that others have tried and arguably failed to have the same impact, this is not sizably attributed to luck at all.

[deleted]

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#40

Post by anonymouse008 »

cjdoc29 wrote: post #30
anonymouse008 wrote: post #18

This will be as successful as Animojis. This headset will have a loyal customer base, will make a big splash, but will not transform computing, creative work, or anything for the everyday user. Apple Watch got so extremely lucky. I do not ever want to see Apple make product decisions like 'well this worked, so let's see if this will, too.' There is zero taste in that, zero craftsmanship, it's just AppleGPT Product Ed…

I am doubtful their VR product will be great if released within this or next year. > Apple Watch got so extremely lucky But given that others have tried and arguably failed to have the same impact, this is not sizably attributed to luck at all.

The digital watch market is like the meme where we see a guy spraying champagne all over himself, kissing his girlfriend, but when we zoom out it's at the bottom tier of tech experience.

Apple won it not because their watch is 'great' - but because they have such brand cache that they could sell 100m of anything once the market learns about them. Airport could absolutely come back and sell that amount, taken into consideration 6 watches == one household == ~1-3 airports - with the marketing budget they used on Watch.

Long story short, they are in a precarious position. They must make something to stay relevant with financial markets, their manufacturing pipeline, keep operationally excellent with sourcing, etc... so it's not meant to be a full 'knock' on them. The 'knock' comes in taking that chance twice with a shrug from your top execs 'well the watch worked out, let's see if this does' - that's just not it.

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