61–70 of 246 posts
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> as the population ages, who is going to buy all the McMansions? The McMansions will be unlivable by that point. They weren't built to last.
If it's an expensive neighborhood in a region with a growing economy then I would think the McMansions would be fine.
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Also, of course, one should keep in mind demographic shifts. There are many small towns (and even some city suburbs) with cheap empty houses that many people would never willingly occupy because there are no jobs there.
Also areas like East Cleveland that have a notorious reputation. Even if in that particular case the city was built by John D. Rockefeller, he is even buried there.
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Lots of "luxury" housing is made with crap materials by unskilled freelancers. There is a ton of skimping on hidden details like missing flashing around doors and windows. You can't trust any home built within the last 25 years.
I'm asking specifically what insulation product they are referring to because I'm unaware of any product that fits that description.
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You're making too many assumptions from such broad data. No, houses don't generally fall apart within 50 years. But most houses built 50+ years ago are small by modern standards, and many have been torn down and redeveloped since then. For the ultimate peek into this phenomenon look at Tokyo, where the lifespan of a house is short and any given plot of land is rebuilt several times per century.
Also, of course, one should keep in mind demographic shifts. There are many small towns (and even some city suburbs) with cheap empty houses that many people would never willingly occupy because there are no jobs there.
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This is important and few seem to look at the simple supply/demand. It explains the housing crises in 06/07/08 and the subsequent situation too.
We don't know if that is the primary cause though. The US population was growing at a quicker rate for much of it's history, and that population was more rural, and a number of other reasons we can't rely solely on historical data for our predictions of current behavior. With a closer to zero population growth rate and a more urbanized population we would expect there to be fewer houses built. Additionally, the pure…
there is also, at least anecdotally, a shortage of skilled tradespeople across construction in general. post-2007 basically reduced the incoming pipeline to zero, and so now there is this missing labor cohort that would be really useful right now.
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The forces that drove prices are over. Low interest rates, and low productivity due to COVID-19. As interest rates rise people will no be able to afford their mortgages. Prices will fall in response.
In my HCOL area we are already seeing prices nosedive after they sit on the market for a few months. The discounts are around 15% off peak, and this is just the start.
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So in those 7 decades there has been build 175 million houses. Population of usa is around 350 million. Most people probsbly also not living alone and some houses that were build before 1950 probsbly still are in use just maybe modernized. Not familiar with USA market but wondering: Are current houses just more fragile and fell apart within 50 years?
How many of those homes are second/third homes? There are a lot of old abandoned homes. I would never live in a home built before 1978. Almost certainly that home is full of lead-based paint and asbestos.
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You sound very confident. Not that I disagree, necessarily, but do you care to elaborate?
The forces that drove prices are over. Low interest rates, and low productivity due to COVID-19. As interest rates rise people will no be able to afford their mortgages. Prices will fall in response.
- They might consider going on paying in the hope that rates drop
- They might not be able to buy another house
- They might find rents will shoot up with mortgage, so somehow manage to pay mortgage.
Also, many houses are bought by investors and companies. They might be able to show higher mortgage as additional expense when filing Taxes. ( Not sure, but that's how I think they do it - someone can explain better )
If a large number of people are unable to afford their mortgage. Then we have a real crisis coming.
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You sound very confident. Not that I disagree, necessarily, but do you care to elaborate?
The forces that drove prices are over. Low interest rates, and low productivity due to COVID-19. As interest rates rise people will no be able to afford their mortgages. Prices will fall in response.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You sound very confident. Not that I disagree, necessarily, but do you care to elaborate?
The forces that drove prices are over. Low interest rates, and low productivity due to COVID-19. As interest rates rise people will no be able to afford their mortgages. Prices will fall in response.