51–60 of 246 posts
It's all just a game looking at the charts until the real estate "investment" companies are invaded by thousands of homeless people and the CEOs executed. Are people just supposed to not live anywhere? How long will this last? Just learn from history.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
So in those 7 decades there has been build 175 million houses. Population of usa is around 350 million. Most people probsbly also not living alone and some houses that were build before 1950 probsbly still are in use just maybe modernized. Not familiar with USA market but wondering: Are current houses just more fragile and fell apart within 50 years?
You're making too many assumptions from such broad data. No, houses don't generally fall apart within 50 years. But most houses built 50+ years ago are small by modern standards, and many have been torn down and redeveloped since then. For the ultimate peek into this phenomenon look at Tokyo, where the lifespan of a house is short and any given plot of land is rebuilt several times per century.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
So in those 7 decades there has been build 175 million houses. Population of usa is around 350 million. Most people probsbly also not living alone and some houses that were build before 1950 probsbly still are in use just maybe modernized. Not familiar with USA market but wondering: Are current houses just more fragile and fell apart within 50 years?
How many of those homes are second/third homes? There are a lot of old abandoned homes. I would never live in a home built before 1978. Almost certainly that home is full of lead-based paint and asbestos.
From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…
This is important and few seem to look at the simple supply/demand. It explains the housing crises in 06/07/08 and the subsequent situation too.
Additionally, the pure supply and demand argument is insufficient because it does not explain why we have failed to create the additional supply to meet the demand. In a pure sandboxed supply/demand analysis with no other factors, we would expect to see supply increase as demand increases since in theory it means building homes is more profitable. The high school version of supply/demand is that they balance eachother eventually and the timeframe over which that happens is influenced by the elasticity in price of the good in question. Something about how the housing market functions has changed in some locations.
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What do you mean by transactions? House sales?
Lots of people sitting on 2-3% fixed rate 30 year mortgages are suddenly deciding maybe staying in their current home isn't a bad idea after all. If you need a mortgage to buy a house, what you can afford just got a lot more modest. Sales will pick up a little; some people will need to move for reasons they cannot avoid. Some people who don't have fixed rate mortgages will have to sell because they can no longer affo…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The forces that drove prices are over. Low interest rates, and low productivity due to COVID-19. As interest rates rise people will no be able to afford their mortgages. Prices will fall in response.
Less than 10% of mortgages are variable rate. And why would anybody sell their house with a 2% mortgage? They’d need to be paid a significant premium to justify this.
From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…
So in those 7 decades there has been build 175 million houses. Population of usa is around 350 million. Most people probsbly also not living alone and some houses that were build before 1950 probsbly still are in use just maybe modernized. Not familiar with USA market but wondering: Are current houses just more fragile and fell apart within 50 years?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're making too many assumptions from such broad data. No, houses don't generally fall apart within 50 years. But most houses built 50+ years ago are small by modern standards, and many have been torn down and redeveloped since then. For the ultimate peek into this phenomenon look at Tokyo, where the lifespan of a house is short and any given plot of land is rebuilt several times per century.
Also, of course, one should keep in mind demographic shifts. There are many small towns (and even some city suburbs) with cheap empty houses that many people would never willingly occupy because there are no jobs there.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The forces that drove prices are over. Low interest rates, and low productivity due to COVID-19. As interest rates rise people will no be able to afford their mortgages. Prices will fall in response.
Less than 10% of mortgages are variable rate. And why would anybody sell their house with a 2% mortgage? They’d need to be paid a significant premium to justify this.
We could get by if need be, but it’s not like many people get a new house for the hell of it. Usually it’s because of new life circumstances.