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Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

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Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#311
post #297
post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

> We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences Correct.

Japan had more decades than the US.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#312
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate the implication of coordination. I think it's more likely that every person at every link in the chain is following some incentive: financial experts within banks are saying whatever they think will get governments to stop putting up interest rates (we're in a banking crisis), journalists are repeating interesting and dramatic news from their sources (that we're in a banking crisis), their editors are careful…

I mean the right-wing political parties are pretty open about their desire to keep the status quo economic system which causes wealth the move to the top (and in many cases increase the extent to which it does by doing things like privatising public industries, deregulating industries, etc). And they're obviously a coordinated entity by nature of being a political party. No conspiracy theories required.

To be fair, the left isn't much better. Sure their rhetoric might sound a bit different but they're still part of the boarder system. A system that as consistently failed the people they've been elected to represent.

It's a distraction to point fingers at left or right.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#313
post #165
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a conspiracy here: The idea of an invisible hand which is beyond anyone’s control, or the analysis of historical information which shows a pattern? I choose to believe the data, not the fairytale you are proposing.

> What is a conspiracy here: The idea of an invisible hand which is beyond anyone’s control, or the analysis of historical information which shows a pattern? I choose to believe the data, not the fairytale you are proposing. What's the pattern?

More and more and more wealthy is moving to the top and becoming concentrated in fewer and fewer hands.

That's the pattern.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#314
post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

>There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed knows this. They should make it explicit to the common, ~100 IQ, joe six pack American. It's infuriating watching them act so carefully as to pretend to try and not spook anyone.

You’re making the weird assumption that the people at the Fed have greater than 99 IQ, or any desire at all to learn about the effects of their monetary decisions other than their own short term personal gains.

And there is no indication of either of these suppositions.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House. It what? Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. > Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019? Did he predict "higher than 2019"? If "higher than 2019" wasn't his prediction then I don't see why it matters that "higher than…

> It what? Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up. > Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. > 2019's inflation was below target. Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnesse…

> Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions.

So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence?

> Which target?

2%

> Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.

...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's what the commenter was getting at, but I think the fixation on banks as a way of "printing money" as a big problem is wildly overblown. "Money" is more of a fiction than that, and that's ok. Creating a successful company creates money. Crypto created money (while often pitched as ultimately being about the opposite).

If money is a fiction, and if successful companies create money, then successful companies create fictional currency and assets. So crypto being successful and creating money is just as bad as a successful company like Facebook or Google. Because money is fictional and therefore useless. And it's okay to accumulate a useless asset like money? Strange. Is there another game we can play? One that exits from this bad ca…

It's fiction in the sense of value set arbitrarily by people. In the end the value of most things is like that. People are ready to spend more money (meaning they value it higher) on houses bigger than they need, without getting any utility out of it for instance.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how many HN conversations would be cut short if we simply accepted that analogies are imperfect yet useful. They provide a very limited amount of insight into any topic—so yes, let’s use them, and let’s stop arguing about whether an analogy is the “right analogy”. A analogy will have some element of truth that transfers from one situation to another, and in a good analogy, it will be easy for readers to disc…

Analogies are good as long as they’re good. If they’re not good they just leave people more confused / argumentative

Most people can’t understand analogies. They are literally literal.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the same way that you should take a software engineer's take on why a a SQL query is slow. They're probably the most knowledgeable person in the room but that doesn't always mean that they're right.

Most software engineers are absolutely garbage at SQL though. Their expertise often ends at CRUD queries, if they can even achieve that without their precious ORMs.

Most bankers are absolutely garbage at money management and the only people that understand economics worse than most investors are economists.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#319
> For now, the magnitude of this problem is smaller

I am not sure about that. In 2008, it was only a crisis in the US real estate lending market that became contagious. Now, it is a crisis of global inflation. All long-term loans were granted by the banks in recent years with the expectation of much lower interest rates. Their prices were ment to cover the risks. Sinces all such loans were too cheap, they actually do not cover the risks appropriately. This means that banks worldwide will face large deficits in the foreseeable future.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you acknowledge their bias, they do know an awful lot about banking.

Once you acknowledge their bias, they do know an awful lot about banking Sure, but I really don't. And a lot of other folks are the same. I know they are both biased and have financial incentives to lie or mislead me. As much as I might try, I know I might not be able to parse out the bullshit from the facts. Those facts are gonna stink of the bullshit even if I can verify it. At least with something like a plumber,…

Funny, nobody is talking about Bitcoin or Decentralized Finance as a solution (or even a hedge) to this problem.
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