Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008 • Hacker News Board

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#181

Post by quesera » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:29 AM UTC

kirse wrote: post #162

safety1st wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

No other country can compare. No one else has this. These in-built advantages are incredibly hard to beat. It's why it's on our currency - "e pluribus unum". It's also why Russia and China are constantly working to erode the unity of the American people, whether it's through false narratives that "we're more divided than ever", driving a wedge into political parties, fomenting rage-mode across social media, utilizing…

> "e pluribus unum"

It's been a while, but I translate that as "From many, one".

I think it's an allusion to the thirteen British colonies becoming one United States.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#182

Post by riffraff » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:31 AM UTC

fyzix wrote: post #128

dragonwriter wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Schiff didn’t account for the economic ignorance of the masses in his prediction. Literally every economic misprediction can be blamed on not accounting for the way people actually behave in real-world economies, but…that’s not something that adds credibility for the next prediction by the same predictor.

1.decade of 0% apr >>> 2.high inflation >>> 3.gold price surge We have gotten 1 and 2 but we haven't gotten to 3 because traders believe that the FED can win the inflation fight. The FED abandoned the inflation fight with a soft pivot yet traders are still not buying gold. This is what Peter couldn't foresee...traders' unwillingness to go against the FED. This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the pro…

> This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the prospects of very high inflation would result in a spike of the gold price.

Keynes mentioned "animal spirits" and "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" almost a hundred years ago. If your prediction doesn't account for reality and well know facts it's a bad prediction.

It would be like guessing that the next election will favor candidate X and when they don't win explaining it away with "well but people are dumb".

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#183

Post by juniordev7 » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:33 AM UTC

China is stronger than it's back in 2008. If America continues playing these stupid games, it will end up loosing power to China.

You can not export your problems to the world all the time and expect no consequences

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#184

Post by bruce511 » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:33 AM UTC

fyzix wrote: post #131

paulpauper wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Schiff didn't account for the economic ignorance of the masses in his prediction. If he is as smart or knowledgeable as he claims or held up to be, then he should have factored that into his forecast and advice. IF the fed is going to do everything in its power to save the economy, why fight it?

>IF the fed is going to do everything in its power to save the economy, why fight it? This is a popular sentiment among traders...why fight the FED? Because there is nothing they can do to bring inflation back to 2%. They all but admitted this with their return to QE. When the masses realize this...gold will surge.

Certainly those who bought gold as a cash-hedge are hoping it surges...

Alas if, for some inexplicable reason, those unwashed masses don't realize that the gold I bought cheap, isn't the only thing worth buying (at my inflated price) then I will be most disappointed.

I guess it doesn't help that gold-hawking is looking more and more scammy everyday, like when c-level political celebrities with large followings seem happy to flog their "sponsors gold" during political messaging.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#185

Post by hayst4ck » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:34 AM UTC

mullingitover wrote: post #137

hayst4ck wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that mean that instead of giving taxpayer money, they instead devalue all taxpayer money by inventing new money?

Honestly, it's a good thing. Given how dysfunctional the legislative branch is with fiscal policy I can't imagine a worse idea than putting it in charge of monetary policy as well.

It turns the fed into the only arm of the government able to levy a new tax.

Printing 20% more money doesn't seem materially different than taking 20% of everyone's money.

Either way an individual is able to buy 20% less stuff and the government is able to spend 20% of the value of the economy.

Except the fed has to answer less to the public than legislators do. We have a non-elected tax authority deceiving the country about the level of tax they are paying through the subterfuge of an overly complex system.

I would love to hear how this assessment is wrong (actually, not rhetorically).

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#186

Post by riffraff » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:36 AM UTC

Operative0198 wrote: post #176

paulpauper wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he made many bad predictions, and continued to double down on them: dollar collapse, $5k+ gold, emerging markets boom, bitcoin crash, hyperinflation, bear market, recession, etc. every year He never deviated from his predictions or view even when shown to be wrong. He never stopped to consider maybe he was wrong, not that the economy is wrong.

He isn't wrong on any of those predictions. The dollar has never been at a more precarious position (on a hyper-inflation course and the BRICS are pondering about adopting the Yuan). Bitcoin (who knows what's coming next, but for sure never seeing 70K again) Hyperinflation (pretty obvious) Bear market (most of 2022 was in one, and most probably this year will follow) Recession (high certainty this will happen. Fed's…

Do you realize hyperinflation is generally defined to be 50% per month?

February US inflation is 6% year over year. This is orders of magnitude below "hyper".

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#187

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:38 AM UTC

hettygreen wrote: post #174

I wasn't worried about this until Chase Bank felt the need to publish "Reasons the crisis isn't a repeat of 2008"

[deleted]

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#188

Post by monero-xmr » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:43 AM UTC

quesera wrote: post #179

safety1st wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

You left out: * Issues the global reserve currency * Maintains the largest military * Has the widest media reach * Has significant natural resources There are problems too, but the unfair advantages are quite strong, and self-perpetuating. Which is fortunate for Americans, because very few countries could be so haphazardly managed, without failing.

I would argue the perceived haphazardness is an advantage. The more centrally planned the economy, the more likely an incompetent government takes power and mucks it up. Part of America’s genius is the (fairly) restricted powers and decentralized nature of responsibility.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#189

Post by avodonosov » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:44 AM UTC

mabbo wrote: post #21

Okay did anyone else get tricked by that websites dark pattern? We've all been trained to not even look at the "do you accept cookies" thing anymore and just blindly press it. On this website, it's actually an ad link to their paid services that looks just like one of those accept cookies buttons.

I always reject

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#190

Post by Operative0198 » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 5:48 AM UTC

riffraff wrote: post #186

Operative0198 wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He isn't wrong on any of those predictions. The dollar has never been at a more precarious position (on a hyper-inflation course and the BRICS are pondering about adopting the Yuan). Bitcoin (who knows what's coming next, but for sure never seeing 70K again) Hyperinflation (pretty obvious) Bear market (most of 2022 was in one, and most probably this year will follow) Recession (high certainty this will happen. Fed's…

Do you realize hyperinflation is generally defined to be 50% per month? February US inflation is 6% year over year. This is orders of magnitude below "hyper".

And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House.

Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019?