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Post-GPT Computing

grady.io

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Re: Post-GPT Computing

#401

Post by ipatec »

nunez wrote: post #92
DethNinja wrote: post #14

I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. In my opinion this technology will be as democratising as the YouTube’s early days. Instead of worrying, learn to work with it. It wil…

Yeah, and look at where YouTube is now. Millions of creators grinding for pennies while the lucky ones that got in early and made it rake in the profits. I think success in tech is going to become extremely pyramidal in the coming years. This is a huge shame, as this was one of the only fields out there where you could make a really good living without going to the "right" school for years and years and years.

I think the Youtube comparison is a good one up to a point. It's a niche product. Everyone wants to be part of it, competing for a very very limited resource which is our attention. While with technologies like GPT or whatever comes next we empower anyone to excel in any area and create whatever (for now non-material things).

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#402

Post by namaria »

mattgreenrocks wrote: post #283
CuriouslyC wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think social mobility will be eliminated, I think the variance of individual mobility will just be radically increased. This technology will allow entrepreneurs and solo content creators to accomplish a lot more, but it'll also eliminate a lot of safe career paths. As a result, if you don't want to be stuck in the underclass doing manual labor or customer service, you'll need to either be brilliant, well conn…

> The people who do well will do very well, but a lot of people who would have done decently before are going to fail. How is this not a huge problem? The vast majority of people are not exceptional. Cutting out that middle band of ability and resources is a surefire recipe for social unrest.

>Cutting out that middle band of ability and resources is a surefire recipe for social unrest.

I don't know, the US has been pushing that envelope for 40+ years and people are still paying taxes...

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#403

Post by namaria »

nextlevelwizard wrote: post #398
namaria wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, put your money where your mouth is and stop paying taxes

You wanna tell me how you got from not wanting socialism to not paying taxes? Or do you think taxation is socialism? And while we are here obviously I do my best to pay as little taxes as possible, but due to where I live I do end up paying more than 30% of my salary in taxes.

Are you gonna explain how you went from 'co-ownership and better wealth distribution' to 'ok then give me 10% of your paycheck'?

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#404

Post by nextlevelwizard »

ROTMetro wrote: post #400
nextlevelwizard wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I really don’t want my productivity to increase. >...and I find myself out of a job. Tell me you are the problem in the industry without telling me you are the problem in the industry.

Nope, just a human being who wants to be a human being.

And to you core part of being human is being inefficient?

Think about the hunter gatherer who was given a bow, but stuck with throwing rocks because he didn't want to get too efficient.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#405

Post by [deleted] »

pfdietz wrote: post #131
Jevon23 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t want my productivity to increase. Worst case scenario is that it gets SO good at writing code that software engineering teams are severely downsized or are made obsolete altogether, and I find myself out of a job. I’m not expecting UBI to start falling out of the sky any time soon, especially while there are still manual labor jobs that robots can’t do. Alternative scenario is that individual developer…

Or, with software so much easier to create, so much more software is created, and demand for SW engineers increases.

[deleted]

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#406

Post by namaria »

margorczynski wrote: post #332
travisjungroth wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but notice how the EU is not any poorer than the USA. EU is significantly poorer than the US. Lots of different ways to measure it, but it’s a factor of roughly 1.5-2x in purchasing power parity.

The problem is that many when saying "EU" are thinking mainly Germany and other countries among the top-3/5. But even Germany is behind the US in terms of GDP/capita, PPP probably also.

Most of the US is behind the leader locations as well. And most Europeans in rich metropolises have better lives then Americans in rich metropolises. Less pollution, less traffic, more free time, more safety.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#407

Post by ipatec »

j3s wrote: post #344

a mental exercise for the doomsayers: if stackoverflow + search engines were invented today, would you be saying the same stuff? it's clear to me that chatgpt is an programmer accelerator, not a replacement. it's just another tool - a very good one at that. 90% of programming is communicating with other people - chatgpt can't talk to people.

people can talk to chatGPT

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#408

Post by ROTMetro »

nextlevelwizard wrote: post #404
ROTMetro wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, just a human being who wants to be a human being.

And to you core part of being human is being inefficient? Think about the hunter gatherer who was given a bow, but stuck with throwing rocks because he didn't want to get too efficient.

Fletching, creating an arrowhead (that needs to be small and perfect) goes through way more material than a hand held obsidian blade, you are not necessarily saving on labour switching to arrows, especially as you now have introduced multiple specialized skills that require hundreds of hours of practice across multiple tribal members (the opposite of this, where you go down to a few babysitters to finesse the final code).

But more relevantly the instant bows were invented you're quota of mammoths to kill a day didn't go up to that maximum possible number + 1 (because sales guys). It stayed at 1 per week or whatever. It's not efficiency, it's management's unrealistics expectations of productive output that I hear being complained about.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#409

Post by dTal »

cactusplant7374 wrote: post #326
angarg12 wrote: post #158

Last week I used ChatGPT for the first time for a real world task at work. It was a self-contained lambda function to perform some admin tasks, so it seemed like an ideal fit. Although the experience was good, it's far from the end of programmers. This was my experience: * Although ChatGPT is pretty good at generating code, it kept making simple mistakes such as calling non-existing APIs or introducing bugs. Some of…

I see people solving a lot of simple problems with it. How about asking it to design a robot that makes and hands you a cup of coffee in the morning? Something that really hasn’t been done before. And afterwards it cleans the cup and puts it back in the cabinet.

It is not good at that kind of novelty, but my impression is that the difficulty is that it is limited to a single pass through the network - such "loops" as there are are "unrolled" within the network, into a very limited stack depth [0] (it would be very interesting to analyze these networks for self-similarity).

If you want it to solve arbitrarily complex problems, you need to set up some sort of loop. People are already feeding the outputs back in as input in various primitive ways, but I suspect the real breakthrough will come when someone trains some sort of recursive transformer from scratch. (Assuming the current networks waste neurons in unrolling loops, we might possibly even see smaller models).

[0] Try the following family of prompts: "_ is an example of _, which is an example of _, which is an example of _...." etc to a depth of your choosing. At some point it bottoms out and you can't get any more levels out of it.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#410

Post by nextlevelwizard »

ROTMetro wrote: post #408
nextlevelwizard wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And to you core part of being human is being inefficient? Think about the hunter gatherer who was given a bow, but stuck with throwing rocks because he didn't want to get too efficient.

Fletching, creating an arrowhead (that needs to be small and perfect) goes through way more material than a hand held obsidian blade, you are not necessarily saving on labour switching to arrows, especially as you now have introduced multiple specialized skills that require hundreds of hours of practice across multiple tribal members (the opposite of this, where you go down to a few babysitters to finesse the final c…

>you're quota of mammoths to kill a day didn't go up

Expect with more efficient hunting methods you could kill more than you did before per day, which meant less hunting days, which meant more time with the wife which in turn meant bigger tribe, which in turn meant you actually had to increase your quota.

Just because you are more efficient doesnt mean your manager becomes an idiot and starts to demand unreasonable output (and if you have an idiotic manager already then you already have the problem).

I have no fucking clue what you are even arguing for.

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