51–53 of 53 posts
Already has been, just the stock market is catching up to the real economy. This is the logical conclusion to the K-type recovery from helicopter money.
By what metric do you say this? GDP has continued to climb, the unemployment rate is basically as low as it ever has been?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.
Fed can just print another 20 trillions. Treasury can mint a special 10T USD coin to payback FED. Nothing needs to give. As long as people have "faith" in USD, the music will continue...but those damn Yuan and Rubbles. Taht we need ro launch another Iraq war with China and Russia. They have WMD that we can blame on and get our boys there with poker cards - a version for the Russian and a version for the Chinese. Sure…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). > There are literally no other options. When growth is increasing or steady you're heading away from a recession; it's only when growth is declining that you're heading for a recession.
There might be a sense where that would necessarily be true, if potentially only evident at finer resolution than economic statistics are normally gathered, if the “aggregate economy” curve whose peak marks the beginning of a recession (GDP to a first approximation, but recession is not assessed on a single indicator or simple function) were constrained to being a function that is differentiable (and whose derivative…
But also I don't like your definition of "heading for" at all. When I leave my house to go to work, I am not "heading for" my house, despite the fact that I will inevitably return.