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JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

fortune.com

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Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#11

Post by dragonwriter »

mostertoaster wrote: post #2

And this is news? Hasn’t that been completely obvious since the fed was forced to hike interest rates? Nothing in life is free, and the easy money we had, especially post COVID craziness, at some point has to have a cost.

Since a recession is the period after an economic peak, the US is always in one of three stages:

(1) In a growth period that will last until the US ends, or

(2) In a recession, or

(3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type).

There are literally no other options.

OTOH, I hope that the Fed thinks that a recession is imminent, because if it does and acts like it, then it is, ipso facto, less likely to actually occur, and more likely to be shallow and short if it nevertheless does, and moderate monetary stimulus without concurrent fiscal stimulus (and politically fiscal stimulus just isn’t probable with this Congress) might slow the decline of inflation, but isn’t going to turn restoke inflation.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#12

Post by monkeydreams »

honkycat wrote: post #5

This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.

Even in this rapidly changing world it would be unwise to bet against the nation that has the US's habit of reinventing itself.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#13

Post by fblp »

vague_vagaries wrote: post #4

I just leaned that employers are required by law to report layoffs in advance to the state and you can see the list here: https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Layoff_Services_WARN Salesforce, Atlassian, Truepill, Waymo, Zoom, Rivian, Impossible foods, etc

Has anyone parsed this pdf data into a trend so we can see # of companies issuing WARN notices each month?

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#14

Post by carterschonwald »

peepeepoopoo3 wrote: post #10
dragonwriter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has a recessions about twice a decade; its also had several depressions, though not for quite a while. They do not mean “the US dies”.

There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.

The us debt is denominated in usd. Countries in the EU don’t have the same luxury.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#15

Post by lmm »

dragonwriter wrote: post #11
mostertoaster wrote: post #2

And this is news? Hasn’t that been completely obvious since the fed was forced to hike interest rates? Nothing in life is free, and the easy money we had, especially post COVID craziness, at some point has to have a cost.

Since a recession is the period after an economic peak, the US is always in one of three stages: (1) In a growth period that will last until the US ends, or (2) In a recession, or (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). There are literally no other options. OTOH, I hope that the Fed think…

> (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type).

> There are literally no other options.

When growth is increasing or steady you're heading away from a recession; it's only when growth is declining that you're heading for a recession.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#16

Post by peepeepoopoo3 »

carterschonwald wrote: post #14
peepeepoopoo3 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.

The us debt is denominated in usd. Countries in the EU don’t have the same luxury.

You're proposing to print away the debt during a period of already high inflation. While you're technically correct that we can avoid default by printing more money, the practical consequences of monetizing the national debt right now, would be catastrophic hyperinflation.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#17

Post by Rury »

lmm wrote: post #15
dragonwriter wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since a recession is the period after an economic peak, the US is always in one of three stages: (1) In a growth period that will last until the US ends, or (2) In a recession, or (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). There are literally no other options. OTOH, I hope that the Fed think…

> (3) Heading for a recession (equivalently, “in an economic expansion”, if you are more a “glass currently full” than a “glass will sometime in the future be empty” type). > There are literally no other options. When growth is increasing or steady you're heading away from a recession; it's only when growth is declining that you're heading for a recession.

>steady you're heading away from a recession

Not quite, but there is certainly only 3 scenarios, just as shown by a graph. It can go up (growth), it can go down (recession), or it can be flat (stagnation).

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#18

Post by wahern »

peepeepoopoo3 wrote: post #10
dragonwriter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has a recessions about twice a decade; its also had several depressions, though not for quite a while. They do not mean “the US dies”.

There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.

Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio never stopped climbing; it peaked at over 200% in 2020. The crisis, meanwhile, was short-lived as the ratio per se was not among the most salient factors.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#19

Post by peepeepoopoo3 »

wahern wrote: post #18
peepeepoopoo3 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.

Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio never stopped climbing; it peaked at over 200% in 2020. The crisis, meanwhile, was short-lived as the ratio per se was not among the most salient factors.

Geece had to massively increase taxes and implement austerity programs, to say nothing of the EU bailout. Since then, they've been able to survive on low interest rates. Low interest rates which are now gone, as the world is busy fighting inflation.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#20

Post by haneefmubarak »

chamakits wrote: post #9
vague_vagaries wrote: post #4

I just leaned that employers are required by law to report layoffs in advance to the state and you can see the list here: https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Layoff_Services_WARN Salesforce, Atlassian, Truepill, Waymo, Zoom, Rivian, Impossible foods, etc

Multiple states have a similar law but it gets worked around. They usually work around this by providing a “severance” that covers the legal period of time before they have to notify their employees; and they only have to do any of this above a certain threshold of how many employees are getting laid off. So if the law says you have to notify 2 months in advance, they’ll instead give you at least 2 months severance,…

I think that's the idea though, to allow folks time to transition easier. Whether you get notified 2 months early and then start interviewing or you get laid off with 2 months of severance and start interviewing, isn't the outcome relatively similar?
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