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Leaving China

persuasion.community

411–420 of 686 posts

Re: Leaving China

#411

The Chinese invasion of Taiwan is inevitable. When it happens, every Western company will suddenly have to pull out, just like they did Russia. The losses for Western companies will be tremendous. For some, it will be a mortal blow. I can hear some of you saying "...but, but, China would never... because that would be so stupid...". It doesn't have to be a good idea! Russia's invasion of Ukraine a) wasn't a good idea…

a-d) are all wrong. Without defending Putin who deserves to burn in hell for what he's done:

a) wasn't a good idea: pretty much everyone thought Russia would win and could not fathom the incompetence of the Russian armed forces. It's possible that even with it's incompetence, if they had successfully taken Kyiv in the early days they would have won.

b) if Russia holds on to arguably outdated concept of geopolitical strategy, it's easy to see why it's in their best interest. Demographically, Russia is in decline and so they had at most 5-10 years to expand out to defensible geographies -- close up to the bessarabian gap and border to the Carpathian mountains.

c) it's not entirely clear even now that the Russian economy is going to collapse. Remember, Russia is a producer nation. It will (relatively) suck as modern shit starts breaking but Russia is barely starting to deficit now. While economic sanctions do have an effect, if the government falls I think deaths of young Russian men (esp if they are forced to meat grind muscovites and st. Petersburgians instead of just ethnic minorities from the hinterlands) is more likely to play into that sentiment than prices going up at tasty period (McDonald's).

d) a large part of the Russian polity wants this, not just Putin.

Re: Leaving China

#412

>But in order to live everyday life, most people living in China find it necessary to turn a blind eye until it affects them directly. That became impossible during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the force of China’s technocracy was on full display it's amazing how people were able to delude themselves for so long, Tiananmen should have been enough to make people and governments realize things weren't going to change

I don't know. Many people fleeing the DDR (East Germany) to West Germany were shot dead by DDR border guards, yet the Wall eventually fell.

Things can still change.

Re: Leaving China

#413
post #13

It's so interesting to read this perspective since it drives home "the grass is always greener.." for me. I've lived a pretty charmed life in the US for the past few years (like the majority of HN, I imagine) but I find myself longing to move to a country with dense cities, affordable housing in the city center, great public infrastructure and a modicum of agreement among the citizens and China fits the bill pretty g…

Here's my opinion on how China scores against your criteria:

- Dense cities: Yes. I grew up in the suburbs and love the density here and how walkable everything is.

- Affordable housing: A good place in a popular location in Beijing or Shanghai is about $2k USD a month. You can get that down to $1k if you have roommates.

- Great public infrastructure: public transit, yes, but I rarely need to take that anymore. Public parks aren't great. You can't drink the tap water.

- Modicum of agreement: political discussion is so thoroughly suppressed that we all engage in self-censorship. I guess that could be called "agreement", but when I think of agreement I think of a place like New Zealand.

Here are the great things you're maybe not seeing:

- There's a bit of friction in everything in daily life, and that somehow makes life more enjoyable for some kinds of people (including myself). I think a big reason for that is that most people here don't speak English.

- It's incredibly easy to make friends.

- Most people you meet are interesting: either they're an expat and they moved here because they didn't want to coast through life, or they're a local and they're curious about people from other cultures.

- Some jobs pay incredibly well. For example if you're a teacher (not a "teacher"), China is a big step up.

Here are the not-so-good things you're maybe not thinking about:

- Air pollution is still a thing. In some cities, half the days you'd like to go outside for a run, you shouldn't because the air is too bad.

- Things like national parks are more crowded, less natural, and less tastefully done here than in any other developed country.

- As a foreigner you can only stay at maybe half the hotels and guest houses around the country. The others will simply not allow you to stay.

- As an American you'll deal with special attention from the government.

- Going to a hospital where nobody speaks your native language is one of the most stressful experiences you will have.

Re: Leaving China

#414

I used to travel to China all the time for work during my first job in 2008. Those times were super optimistic. Hong Kong was filled with Chinese pride, and it seemed inevitable that China would absorb Taiwan. China had just hosted the Olympics. I visited Hong Kong late 2018 after many years of not having been there. It was a very different place from the Hong Kong I had visited in 2009-2011. The energy was a bit dar…

> it’s a bastion of a mandarin-speaking democracy, or in software terms a hard fork of an alternate reality of what China could have been. I don't want to reduce what you've said, but the fact is that Taiwan grew rich because of US support that helped integrate it into the global economy, and that wouldn't have come without its opposition to the mainland. Similarly, China wouldn't have grown rich had it not been a pa…

i can't speak for the Taiwanese link, but my recollection was that China's rise in wealth (and investment and support from the US) only really took off in the 90s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Re: Leaving China

#415
post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This wasn't autocracy, this was logical health policy: Do you overwhelm hospitals, potentially causing them to fail, or do you limit personal freedom? That's the question that they had to answer. Except, the choice was nowhere as binary as you present and/or perceive it. If you look across the world you will see many different responses to the very same problem, but with different answers based on political, cultur…

I didn't say it was anything to do with being "Morally weak". And you didn't see a "many different responses" -- you saw 1: Lockdowns. The whole world did them. Where they didn't do them, hospitals got trashed and lots of people died. Lockdowns ended when vaccines began, China never got that option, because its population didn't take up any of the vaccines to a high enough percentage. Also, there was never enough mRN…

> I didn't say it was anything to do with being "Morally weak".

My apologies, I did not mean to imply that you did. Merely that this is the usual response I hear from those supporting the PRC position.

> Lockdowns ended when vaccines began, China never got that option, because its population didn't take up any of the vaccines to a high enough percentage. Also, there was never enough mRNA vaccines available to supply the whole world + china, until recently (maybe still not even now).

So, why did the PRC population not vaccinate? Could the government not mandate vaccines? If so, why not? Could it not better educate the population? Was the path via Sinovac the only option? Fosun International in Shanghai [1] had a license to produce Comirnaty as early as 2020 [2] for example. These are just a few decisions that could have been made differently and yet were not.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fosun_International

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer%E2%80%93BioNTech_COVID%...

I am not claiming to have answers here as for there being a better path through this chaos. However, I do want a healthy debate about the decisions and outcomes; I simply am not buying how you (and Beijing) are largely portraying the decisions as inevitable.

> It 100% was as binary as I present it. Italy, UK, Canada, US, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Korea... the list goes on: They all did lockdowns to some degree to slow spread, and help their hospitals. It had nothing to do with culture or politics... except in the US.

I strongly disagree. While I am not a scientist in this area, I am very familiar with the great differences between say the UK, Japanese, and Swedish responses for the people on the ground. Debating excess deaths, efficiency, economic impact etc. is something that I will leave for better scientists to iron out over the years to come, but it is inarguable that the responses (and outcomes) were far more nuanced than you describe them. This – to me – is enough to solidify my position that the whole “There was no other option”, which is commonplace for governments worldwide, is a load of hogwash in this case as much as it has always been.

Re: Leaving China

#416

>But in order to live everyday life, most people living in China find it necessary to turn a blind eye until it affects them directly. That became impossible during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the force of China’s technocracy was on full display it's amazing how people were able to delude themselves for so long, Tiananmen should have been enough to make people and governments realize things weren't going to change

But Taiwan, HK, Singapore, and Melbourne all did the same thing, extended lockdowns. This wasn't autocracy, this was logical health policy: Do you overwhelm hospitals, potentially causing them to fail, or do you limit personal freedom? That's the question that they had to answer. China had the added complication of not having a vaccinated population. Partly due to them having too many people, partly due to their popu…

Taiwan and Singapore did not do extended lockdowns. They had lockdowns, but we could still order food delivered, still go out to buy food or go to the doctor, and we had constant updates on the number of infections, as the rate went down, restrictions were relaxed.

Re: Leaving China

#417
This article got me wondering: what is the difference between an immigrant and an expat? It seems like immigrant is the term used for someone migrating westward, and expat is the term used for someone migrating from a Western country eastward. For the sake of this definition we're considering North America the western limit of the world and Asia the Eastern limit.

Opinions?

Re: Leaving China

#418
post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait why is that a problem? Nationality and ethnicity are two different things.

It’s a problem in that not a common way to perceive one’s identity and more difficult for others to relate to the situation. Consider the way Russians-in-exile perceive themselves in the current geopolitical context.

It may not be common in your part of the world, it is extremely common in the former USSR (maybe because it was called "the prison of nations" or something to that effect). I am honestly surprised that anyone would have trouble understanding the difference between ethnicity and nationality as it seems very obvious to me and everyone I've ever met.

> Consider the way Russians-in-exile perceive themselves in the current geopolitical context.

Those who I've spoken to identify themselves as Russian citizens temporarily in exile, whilst I am ethnically Russian who has no connection to the country at all. I don't think these are the same.

Re: Leaving China

#419
TL;DR: every dictatorship inevitably follows the same path of self-destruction. How many generations should pass for people worldwide to realise there is no viable path to long-term prosperity than a democratic social order?

Re: Leaving China

#420
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author has lived there for 20 years, married there, has kids who go to local schools, yet calls himself an expat, and everyone here seems to accept that as an obvious truth. Meanwhile a million+ people coming to the USA on temporary work visas fully intending to go back to their home country (or illegally with no path to citizenship) are obviously immigrants. At some point people have to come to terms that this i…

China does not have a citizenship program. If you are not born Chinese, you will never be Chinese. Everyone who moves to China is an expat. What you call yourself, "immigrant" or "expat" is up to you. For example, plenty of Indians call themselves expats in the US. Other Indians call themselves immigrants. Personally, I'm a fan of the word "alien". God Bless America! :D

Brother/comrad Hao who is Nigerian has Chinese citizenship: https://youtube.com/watch?v=_xotXHjKHqY

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hao_Ge

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