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Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

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Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#391

Post by RivieraKid »

habibur wrote: post #367
RivieraKid wrote: post #283

Here's my current thinking on the impact of GPT-4 on the developer job market: - I expect developer productivity to go up 1.5x - 15x over the next several years assuming GTP-4 based tooling is integrated into IDEs. - There will be two opposing forces acting on developer wages. First, developers will be more productive, therefore the price of one hour of work should go up. But - the supply of developer output will inc…

> - I expect developer productivity to go up 1.5x - 15x over the next several years assuming GTP-4 based tooling is integrated into IDEs. Hardly. 10% of the time spent is in writing code and the other 90% goes behind debugging and fixing things. Even if AI shrinks the time spent in that 10% in writing by another 90%, you still have have to take full time for maintaining that code. Changing, debugging, testing, deploy…

It's not just writing code, GPT and GPT-based tools can help with fixing bugs, solving configuration problems, understanding existing code, suggesting variable names, etc.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#392

Post by howderek »

eldritch_4ier wrote: post #350
carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

All points the horses made before cars all but replaced them. “The humans need to get from A to B and it’s not like they’ve gotten any faster with their own 2 legs”. How does this manager-engineer look like now? Managers specify what they need in plain language, and both parties go back and forth with increasing complexity to create based on the shared vision. Managers can already pull off a similar dance with ChatGP…

The horse population has decreased by half or so since the early 1900s. And horses have stayed pretty valuable, too. Most of them just don't have to work as hard anymore. The horses used for sport never went away, only the horses used for labor or transport. So if your horse analogy is accurate, then maybe half of software engineers lose their jobs and the industry stops growing. Those that keep their jobs keep their salary and have to either be very fast or very good at jumping over artificial obstacles. Seems accurate. I should probably stop beating a dead horse.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#393

Post by _a_a_a_ »

brianwawok wrote: post #364
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So exact in fact that they will need to specify a program in a click and drag interface, or in human language. This. I started programming in Machine Code, where the "editor" was a pad of graph paper. I've watched management- and business-focused people sneer at us geeks for my entire career, and watched them drool over the thought of finally getting rid of us. Hasn't happened yet. > I'd be surprised if the next st…

And the way to get back at PHB is to form a tech lead software company and hire 0 people with MBAs.

Is that truly fair though. I have no exposure to MBAs and it may be all the negative talk about them is based on the conspicuously bad ones. I'm speaking as an IT person with very little experience of running a business, and it may be that a good MBA could be a great asset. I genuinely don't know.

I'm reminded of reading about a Lisp machine company that ran into the ground because it was managed by techies. Their tech may have been great but their marketing and business skills were very arguably what killed the company.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#394

Post by jfvinueza »

joenot443 wrote: post #340
Philip-J-Fry wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's more like telling a DJ in the 80s, "Don't worry that mixing vinyls won't be a thing forever. It's not about the tools but about the product, as a DJ your job is to mix good music and you can do that with vinyls, cassettes or with MP3s."

This is a pretty funny example because if you follow the DJ scene much, you know the barrier for entry is literally on the floor now. A 10 year old with an iPad app can beat-match and “DJ” a 2h mix together in a way that 20 years ago required thousands of dollars of gear. The tragic part is that unless someone’s got some familiarity with what “good” mixing sounds like, they wouldn’t be able to tell they’re listening…

The "technical" aspect of djing will never be as important as the sense of what song should go next, and there's no shortcut for that.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#395

Post by chadash »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #259
carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

> So exact in fact that they will need to specify a program in a click and drag interface, or in human language. This. I started programming in Machine Code, where the "editor" was a pad of graph paper. I've watched management- and business-focused people sneer at us geeks for my entire career, and watched them drool over the thought of finally getting rid of us. Hasn't happened yet. > I'd be surprised if the next st…

I agree with your characterization in general. If all someone has is an idea and no relevant experience to back it up, run. I can’t stand people like that.

But there’s one type of ideas person I’m thrilled to work with. Someone with deep and successful experience in sales. The head of sales at my company is also relatively product oriented and boy, he just has a knack for what customers want.

In general, I think many engineers can do some product management. We can figure out basic accounting and finance. But the idea of making a cold call to sell dental software, or chasing down school principals at an education conference is almost as foreign to most software engineers as CS is to most sales folks.

Salesperson + engineer = superpowers

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#396

Post by Simran-B »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #259
carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

> So exact in fact that they will need to specify a program in a click and drag interface, or in human language. This. I started programming in Machine Code, where the "editor" was a pad of graph paper. I've watched management- and business-focused people sneer at us geeks for my entire career, and watched them drool over the thought of finally getting rid of us. Hasn't happened yet. > I'd be surprised if the next st…

Wait until managers realize that their jobs are a lot easier to automate away with AI than the jobs of software developers.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#397

Post by incongruity »

joenot443 wrote: post #340
Philip-J-Fry wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's more like telling a DJ in the 80s, "Don't worry that mixing vinyls won't be a thing forever. It's not about the tools but about the product, as a DJ your job is to mix good music and you can do that with vinyls, cassettes or with MP3s."

This is a pretty funny example because if you follow the DJ scene much, you know the barrier for entry is literally on the floor now. A 10 year old with an iPad app can beat-match and “DJ” a 2h mix together in a way that 20 years ago required thousands of dollars of gear. The tragic part is that unless someone’s got some familiarity with what “good” mixing sounds like, they wouldn’t be able to tell they’re listening…

I’m in my 40s - one of my high school jobs was working at a photo lab and studio - I even became a photographer there, taking kids photos and whatnot. It was fun - I almost considered a career in photography.

The truth is, had I done so, I’d feel a lot like you described.

As things get easier, true craft and skill are less appreciated and lost as the application becomes more democratized. From the perspective of the expert/skilled individual, this is terrible. On the other hand, it’s amazing what happens when everyone has a mindblowingly good camera on them almost always. In the end, we are collectively better for it, but individuals absolutely do see their value diminished.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#399

Post by stavros »

samwestdev wrote: post #299
dzikimarian wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well - I've read some about origin of Doom/Wolfenstein - it was definitely a mixed bag (as expected from young man), but there was definitely a focus on end result (smoother animation, better 3d), than coding just for the sake of coding.

What do you mean by “mixed bag”?

If you have even a passing interest in this, you will enjoy the book Masters of Doom, which is about the early days of id software. I think that's what the GP is referring to.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#400

Post by albertopv »

I have to deal with continuously changing requirements, dozens of microservices, multiple type of DBs, client integrations with endless techs, clients support tickets written with an obscure human language where you have to guess what they meant.

AI is not going to take over these things anytime soon, if ever.

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