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Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

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Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#251

Post by AshamedCaptain »

pzo wrote: post #84
banyaaa wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt AI will replace any job in my lifetime (got 40-50 years left). Progress will grind to a halt just like self driving cars did because the real world is just too chaotic and 'random' to be captured by a formula/equation/algorithm. My prediction is: AGI is theoretically possible, but would require impractical amounts of computing power - kinda like how intergalactic travel will never happen.

We don’t AGI for LLM to be useful. And regrading comparison with self driving car they are still improving just the bar for them is much higher. If autopilot works 99.9% if time then 1 out of 1000 drivers will die - so technology has to be even better. for LLM is enough if it’s 90% good to be broadly useful.

Not to "replace programmers", though. For the same reason you can't replace drivers even though they also make mistakes.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#252

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

revelio wrote: post #119
acatnamedjoe wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see the plumber/electrician thing a lot. But talking to my friends who do these jobs it always seems like it would be even more vulnerable to AI than programming. Experienced electricians get paid decent wages because they have had lots of training and then have seen loads of different problems. So they intuitively know things like 'This is a 1960s house so if there's a problem with the lighting the first thing I s…

I wonder if there's enough info about how to do tradesmen's jobs online for that to happen. Programmers are at risk because we filled the internet with free training materials but many jobs aren't like that especially anything with a physical component.

This is an interesting point. A family member of mine is what we call here a medical evaluator - not sure if it has a direct equivalent in e.g. the US and how it is called here, but those are doctors who assess the disabilities of workers who apply for a pension due to illness or accident. This involves exploring the patient and then making the decision and justifying it in a report. The latter two seem like tasks that LLMs should be able to do easily.

However, we tried a description of a fake case to see what Bing could do, and it couldn't do much. And I think the reason is that there are very detailed documents on the rules that they follow for their decisions, but these are not online - they are in a private intranet and they can't take them out of there. If Bing had access to those documents I don't think it would have much of a problem.

So maybe a way for workers to protect themselves from being replaced by AI is not uploading much information about their jobs to the Internet... I wonder if this will lead to a situation like guilds in the middle ages, treating job skills essentially as secrets.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#253

Post by muyuu »

if I were a teenager these days, I'd be more worried about the vasts amounts of money required to get a credential that may not be worth a damn in a few years time

I wouldn't be worried about learning things that may become obsolete, even those particular skills that get obsoleted provide the student with extra ability to learn more

PS: very nice of John Carmack taking time to respond such DMs

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#254

Post by danparsonson »

pjmlp wrote: post #74
danparsonson wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a word association machine, it's not even at kindergarten level when it comes to general cognition.

Regardless, it is foolish to belive it won't improve and take over tasks that in 2023 it still isn't able to do. Who would guess, beyond Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, that I can use my phone in 2023 to translate anything on a foreign restaurant in real time.

It will of course continue to improve at what it does but I personally think it's unrealistic to assume it will somehow spontaneously develop generalised cognitive ability; there are surely limits to how far this particular approach will take us.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#255

Post by [deleted] »

jongjong wrote: post #219

If anyone wants to avoid wasting their software development career. DO NOT EVER work on developer tools as the product. Developer tools is one of these areas where it doesn't matter how good your product is, no matter how much developers say they like it or how much time it saves them, it's not going to make it. Big tech companies will not allow their employees to use the tool and it will be a commercial failure. It…

[deleted]

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#256

Post by raverbashing »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

> we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017.

> Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers

I think that people who make these predictions are not very good at actual programming (taken in the more wider meaning)

The latest fad I remember (before ChatGPT) was that with BDD testing non-technical people would be able to write tests and we all see where that went

But most fundamentally, the non-technical people don't have the time nor the expertise to learn all the details needed for shipping software (and why would they? their job is to look at other aspects of the business)

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#257

Post by jimnotgym »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

>Since they hire software developers to make the specification more rigid

That might actually be what development is, teasing out the requirements by iterative entering them into a machine that does exactly what you told it to, and comparing the outputs to expectations.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#258

Post by mdmglr »

muyuu wrote: post #253

if I were a teenager these days, I'd be more worried about the vasts amounts of money required to get a credential that may not be worth a damn in a few years time I wouldn't be worried about learning things that may become obsolete, even those particular skills that get obsoleted provide the student with extra ability to learn more PS: very nice of John Carmack taking time to respond such DMs

> vasts amounts of money required to get a credential that may not be worth a damn in a few years time

are you referring to the degree program like CS or a degree across any field in general?

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#259

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

> So exact in fact that they will need to specify a program in a click and drag interface, or in human language.

This. I started programming in Machine Code, where the "editor" was a pad of graph paper.

I've watched management- and business-focused people sneer at us geeks for my entire career, and watched them drool over the thought of finally getting rid of us.

Hasn't happened yet.

> I'd be surprised if the next step is "Hi, I'm an ideas guy, please give me an app that does Uber, for bicycles, but better."

I get that, from "idea people," on a regular basis. They have nothing but contempt for us "Make It Happen" folks. They treat us as if we grow on trees, and are suckers, to boot.

Inevitably, the above, is followed by something that translates to "Of course, you will do all the work, but I'll get all the money, because the idea is what's really valuable."

If I follow up on it at all, I'll be asked to sign an NDA, and meet in some clandestine place, so they can whisper to me about their AI-powered cheese straightener.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#260

Post by noobermin »

It's funny seeing this attitude here from developers types, but when it comes to art or writing or legal work, it's all "disrupt" talk instead. Of course you guys are the ones with the special sauce, something those pesky managers can never grok. Meanwhile continue your work to put them out of a job, the manager definitely won't decide to fire you too as soon as he can justify it to the c suite
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