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Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

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Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#121

Post by matwood »

jmfldn wrote: post #40

Carmack has a point, we should focus on the problem we're solving and the value we're delivering. It can be hard for programmers to get this sometimes, but it will make you much better at your job now, it's not just about future-proofing. That said, I love technology and delivering it through code, so I would struggle on a personal level in this future unless there were interesting technical roles left to do. I have…

> Carmack has a point, we should focus on the problem we're solving and the value we're delivering.

When I was younger every programming job was supposedly about to be outsourced. I did exactly what Carmack suggested, and it worked out well for me. I think it’s a great general strategy for working for a long time, but not ideal for someone who wanted to pass leetcode style interviews at a top tech company.

For example, would anyone at my google tech interview care that I’m comfortable with a companies financials, managing P&Ls, margins, etc? No, just how fast I can write a sort or whatever.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#122

Post by anon7725 »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

> Since they hire software developers to make the specification more rigid, and the managers don't seem to be getting better at this over time, why would you believe this skill set is going to go away?

Are we sure that an AI could not engage in enough back and forth conversation to firm up the spec? You’re kind of assuming that systems will be generated from a one-shot prompt, but it seems more likely that an interactive AI will identify the gaps in requirements and ask for clarification.

Alternatively, if the prompt-generate-evaluate loop is short enough the user can simply play with the running system and provide feedback to alter it.

This is essentially what developers do when they present a “weekly build” or whatever in an agile environment.

The process of solidifying requirements, stating them clearly and translating them into machine-executable formats are all language tasks and these models are really fucking good at those.

I’ve noticed in discussions like this that many software folks are assuming that AI capabilities will plateau soon, or will merely be extensions of what we already have (a better autocomplete, etc). I submit that we may reach a point where the AI is so compelling that we’ll reorganize teams/systems/businesses around it.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#123

Post by tambourine_man »

I never would have expected these kinds of words from Carmack.

Product skills, delivered value, help accomplish something for people. All sound like consulting/coaching. Carmack to me was a true hacker’s hacker.

I guess it either gets to most of us eventually or programming as I knew it is truly over.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#124

Post by kybernetikos »

cwillu wrote: post #46
choppsv1 wrote: post #33

I love to code, as much as I loved math in college, but coding paid better and I'm pretty good at it. Those were my choices though b/c I want to do something I love. Sure, I keep my eye on the "Delivered Value" by making sure I engineer solutions to real problems, but I've never wanted to move out of coding and into managing engineers to build stuff. I want to code. It seems to me that the advice given here would be…

It's like telling a musician to become a DJ because the point of performing is to entertain people. It's not wrong, but it's also not applicable to all people who enjoy performing an instrument.

That's a great analogy, and it makes me wonder just how closely did Carmack himself follow this advice early in his career. I suspect that he wouldn't have got where he is without an unusually deep interest in the nuts and bolts.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#125

Post by Barrin92 »

I have no idea why the lump of labour fallacy is still so ingrained in people. AI which is not AGI or whatever sci-fi panic people have on twitter, is a slightly fancier autocomplete, and thus it's a productivity tool.

Nobody has been replaced by their debugger or their intellisense, even if it makes coding 10x or 100x easier. It just means software development gets faster and cheaper. On net if anything that'll likely mean programming jobs expand, as software is still incredibly absent from many sectors of the economy.

If tomorrow mom and pop stores start using AI to build themselves simple websites and come online and enter the online economy that'll likely vastly mean more customers for the software industry overall. I wouldn't be surprised if we have 10x as many indie game developers in a few years because these tools enable them to enter the market, which is good for virtually everyone working in the industry.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#126

Post by revelio »

pcthrowaway wrote: post #85
pharmakom wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2008 wasn’t so different was it? I guess the big new thing in work since then is the “gig economy”.

Well I'm in web dev (though I was studying CS in 2008) and the 2008 landscape had almost none of the same things. jQuery was not yet a household name, let alone SPAs. Facebook had barely 100 million users. Marc Andreessen yet hadn't written about "software eating the world". Personally I was more optimistic. If anything, the last 15 years have seen the growth of an attitude of tech "entitlement" because hackers got t…

Huh? Gmail was a spa and that dates from 2004. I don't think a VC writing a blog post says much about how tech had changed. Smartphones existed before the iPhone and Android, they just weren't as popular.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#127

Post by amelius »

twelve40 wrote: post #89
cwillu wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's like telling a musician to become a DJ because the point of performing is to entertain people. It's not wrong, but it's also not applicable to all people who enjoy performing an instrument.

Yeah, but the original question was specifically about coding jobs, not hobbies, hence i think a reasonable business angle on the answer.

Perhaps coding will become a hobby, while professionals use AI tools.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#128

Post by jstummbillig »

In the wake of the first IT job disrupting AI wave, who do you think will make up the core workforce in the creation of software, and why: The (today so-called) designers or the programmers? I have a strong sense that one is going to be much more effected than the others, but, interestingly, I have no clue which.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#129

Post by [deleted] »

onion2k wrote: post #49
pharmakom wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2008 wasn’t so different was it? I guess the big new thing in work since then is the “gig economy”.

We've had LLMs for about 5 years so far in non-academic research. If we're talking 10 years out that means we're looking at tech that's about 1/3 through its development to date. Take any mature-ish technology that you use today and compare the version 1/3 through its life to the version you use now. Look at Chrome 20 compare to Chrome 111, or React 14 compared to React 18, or an iPhone 4 compared to an iPhone 14, or…

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