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Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
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Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#32Right now, GPT can help you think through the design of a piece of software if you "drive" the conversation properly. It's not impossible to think that at some point in the not-to-distant future, a model could be specifically trained which could also do all the work of helping figure out what problem it is they want to solve.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#33I love to code, as much as I loved math in college, but coding paid better and I'm pretty good at it. Those were my choices though b/c I want to do something I love. Sure, I keep my eye on the "Delivered Value" by making sure I engineer solutions to real problems, but I've never wanted to move out of coding and into managing engineers to build stuff. I want to code. It seems to me that the advice given here would be more applicable to someone who only coded long enough to move into engineering management -- anyway something about it bugs me and I don't think I'd follow it exclusively even if I was starting today.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#34If programmers can be replaced by AI, so can every other white collar job and humanity will look very different than what it is now. And I’ve been using ChatGPT and copilot and it’s a nice tool but nowhere near a replacement for knowing how to program.
This person is asking about career prospects 10-15 years out though. I'm sorry, but the landscape in then might be as alien to someone asking today, as todays would have been to someone asking 15 years ago (2008). What John said is correct, but personally I think he's underplaying how much people could be affected. Those "product skills" take years of grinding to really sharpen, and in 15 years only a few people migh…
You have plenty of time and can learn CS and earn a lot of money for years even if at exactly 120 months from now your job is made obsolete. It doesn't take 9 years to learn to code.
The premise of all this seems to be that learning how to program computers is difficult or complex. It is not.
Also, AI will not replace human reasoning in 10-15 years. If it does, it means AGI, and we all have much bigger problems than layoffs.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#35If programmers can be replaced by AI, so can every other white collar job and humanity will look very different than what it is now. And I’ve been using ChatGPT and copilot and it’s a nice tool but nowhere near a replacement for knowing how to program.
Right now it is a kindergarten child at cognitive level, and like humans it will grow up and evolve, unless we nuke ourselves before it happens.
It has no cognition. Do not personify the algorithm that cannot think.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#36Here's a quick transcript, in case it's useful or someone doesn't want to visit the bird site:
> Person: Hey John, I hope you are well. I am really passionate about CS (specifically Software Engineering) and I want to pursue a career in it. But I can't help but be a bit concerned about the future availability of coding jobs due to AI (chatgpt4 and stuff). I understand it's hard to predict how things will be in the next 10-15 years, but my main concern is that I may be putting in all this hard work for nothing I'm concerned AI will make my future job(s) obsolete before I even get it. Any thoughts on this?
> John: If you build full "product skills" and use the best tools for the job, which today might be hand coding, but later may be AI guiding, you will probably be fine.
> Person: I see... by "product skills" do you mean hard and soft skills?
> John: Software is just a tool to help accomplish something for people — many programmers never understood that. Keep your eyes on the delivered value, and don't over focus on the specifics of the tools.
> Person: Wow I've never looked at it from that perspective. I'll remember this. Thanks for your time. Much appreciated.
To me, that seems like a fair stance to take, though I feel like things will definitely change somewhat in the next decade or two. While some might have scoffed at the likes of IntelliSense previously, features like that proved themselves as useful for a variety of projects over time; we might eventually be dealing with GPTSense to enrich the development process and those who don't might find themselves at a bit of a disadvantage.
Copilot is already a step in that direction, maybe eventually we'll get something for static code analysis and recommendations: "This project uses pattern X in Y places already, however you've written this code in pattern Z despite it mostly being similar to existing code in file W. Consider looking at whether it'd be possible to make the style more consistent with the rest of the codebase. [Automatically refactor] [Compare files] [Ignore]". It might be nice to have something automated look at my code and tell me that I'm doing things different than 99% of the civilized world and offer my suggestions, as well as allow me to ask questions - even when I'm hacking on something at 1 AM and any would be mentors are asleep.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#37If programmers can be replaced by AI, so can every other white collar job and humanity will look very different than what it is now. And I’ve been using ChatGPT and copilot and it’s a nice tool but nowhere near a replacement for knowing how to program.
This person is asking about career prospects 10-15 years out though. I'm sorry, but the landscape in then might be as alien to someone asking today, as todays would have been to someone asking 15 years ago (2008). What John said is correct, but personally I think he's underplaying how much people could be affected. Those "product skills" take years of grinding to really sharpen, and in 15 years only a few people migh…
I doubt AI will replace any job in my lifetime (got 40-50 years left).
Progress will grind to a halt just like self driving cars did because the real world is just too chaotic and 'random' to be captured by a formula/equation/algorithm.
My prediction is: AGI is theoretically possible, but would require impractical amounts of computing power - kinda like how intergalactic travel will never happen.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#38Any advice on resources to become more product focused as a developer?
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#39I would just remind everyone that this so-called intelligence is generative text editor and feeds on our creativity/content. Probably it is going to degenerate (pun intended) after feeding on stuff that it generated itself. What do you think?
I'd say don't count on that one. Feeding on others knowledge and then recombining it is also what we do. In comparison to AI we do not appear to be particularly great at any part of this game.
Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine
#40Carmack has a point, we should focus on the problem we're solving and the value we're delivering. It can be hard for programmers to get this sometimes, but it will make you much better at your job now, it's not just about future-proofing. That said, I love technology and delivering it through code, so I would struggle on a personal level in this future unless there were interesting technical roles left to do. I have no interest in being a product person. I'm fundamentally motivated by a passion for code and tech.
As for when this fully automated future arrives, I don't know, but I don't think LLMs get you there. More and more boilerplate code, and even novel code, might get written by things like Codex. However, all the messy details of real world systems solving fairly intractable problems need something more akin to, if not AGI, then another type of AI. I might be wrong, I just don't feel that threatened by ChatGPT / Copilot based on what I've seen. It's an amazing technology but weirdly underwhelming for my job. Copilot etc will change things, but replace us? No.
Of course, something else may be just around the corner so I'm not complacent.