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Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

quantamagazine.org

31–40 of 326 posts

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#32
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read that with a British accent and was delighted when I reached this line: "In festive throngs or solitaire, A bracing brew brings comfort there, It's known and soothing, mending, clear, A balm for hearts, a joy austere." Reminded me of a way historians find out how written text was spoken (namely by looking at what supposedly rhymes or onomatopoeic words and letters).

You'll enjoy this AI generated spoken version: https://on.soundcloud.com/1tHgY

Is that by ElevenLabs? This induces the nervous sort of excitement in me.

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#33
There is an idea bouncing around my brain for a pipe-dream science fiction book I could write, about the rise of the first truly sentient (or sentient-appearing) AI & its effects on the world.

It is beginning to get to the point where I am considering whether I need to actually start writing this book before this "sci-fi" concept becomes a mundane reality.

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same was said 10 years ago. It's astonishing what can be done, but you can already see fundamental limits. I think it will raise productivity for some tasks, but not fundamentally change society.

Can you elaborate on fundamental limits?

I’m guessing one is data. The limit would be once you’ve trained a LLM on all public (or even private) data. Sure you can still make some improvements or try to find some additional private data but still, a fundamental limit has been reached.

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#35

There is a startling acceleration of innovation in the field that GPT-4 illustrates. According to NVidia, LLM sizes have been increasing 10X per year for the last few years. This tech is going to hit every aspect of society like a sledgehammer over the next 48 months.

I guess you perception of society is severely limited if you think a fancy autocomplete is capable of changing every aspect of it.

Funny- That’s like saying the iPhone is a nothingburger. Who would buy such thing right?

Or the internet? Who’d even want a computer at home to talk to other computers.

This is going to infiltrate every text-based tool. Email, social media, text. Speech and video already incoming.

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#36

There is a startling acceleration of innovation in the field that GPT-4 illustrates. According to NVidia, LLM sizes have been increasing 10X per year for the last few years. This tech is going to hit every aspect of society like a sledgehammer over the next 48 months.

The same was said 10 years ago. It's astonishing what can be done, but you can already see fundamental limits. I think it will raise productivity for some tasks, but not fundamentally change society.

The number of people saying it now is many orders of magnitude more than the number of people saying it 10 years ago. Not saying that means it will happen, but it isn't the same situation.

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#37

There is a startling acceleration of innovation in the field that GPT-4 illustrates. According to NVidia, LLM sizes have been increasing 10X per year for the last few years. This tech is going to hit every aspect of society like a sledgehammer over the next 48 months.

The same was said 10 years ago. It's astonishing what can be done, but you can already see fundamental limits. I think it will raise productivity for some tasks, but not fundamentally change society.

The A.I. Monte Carlo Ray Tracing Hallucination Engine can change society by showing as-is and to-be next state. Two use-cases: new infrastructure installation or upgrade and time interval inspection tracking ideal-case vs real world condition. Suppose a lazy contractor skips steps and cuts corners, or a pathological contractor builds the thing and pulls the thing apart over and over again when all that was needed was a one and done, or the change is for the worse. A civil engineer can walk around with an iPad and iPhone to check-in the master plan.

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#38
post #33

There is an idea bouncing around my brain for a pipe-dream science fiction book I could write, about the rise of the first truly sentient (or sentient-appearing) AI & its effects on the world. It is beginning to get to the point where I am considering whether I need to actually start writing this book before this "sci-fi" concept becomes a mundane reality.

Er, doesn't "ChatGPT4" (quotes) get to write all the novels now?

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#39
post #33

There is an idea bouncing around my brain for a pipe-dream science fiction book I could write, about the rise of the first truly sentient (or sentient-appearing) AI & its effects on the world. It is beginning to get to the point where I am considering whether I need to actually start writing this book before this "sci-fi" concept becomes a mundane reality.

Go meta and make ChatGPT write it for you.

There's a lot of work involved in book and chapter plans, as well as bios so you're not getting off lightly.

But chatGPT would be able to make a first draft for you for sure.

Re: Unpredictable abilities emerging from large AI models

#40
This is nice and swell, but my experience with GPT-4 is that it lies.

A whole lot.

With style, I grant you, but blatant lies nevertheless.

Specifically, when you ask it to produce answers to factual questions that don't have an answer it learned on the internet, it just seem to flip to "generate stories" mode.

Specifically, when it produces factual answers (that are utter BS), if you ask it to provide a reference to its claims (a link), it just generates garbage URL's, none of which actually load, but all of which are actually extremely "plausible" (domain feels right, article title seems right, etc...).

When you corner it (it takes quite a while, because it keeps generating garbage for quite a few back-and forth interactions), it finally apologizes and advises you to go consult a more reliable source of information.

TL;DR: don't rely on answers provided by these things until:

      - the "write a novel" mode that seems to be the default operating mode can be turned off hard (no lies please).

      - answers come with a confidence score attached to it (which btw: when you ask for one, the damn thing proudly explains that it operates without these. I mean hell, even a four year old can tell you how confident he his when answering a question, including "I don't know").

      - answers come with sources that don't actually produce a 404 when you try to read them.
I mean, I just spent an hour talking to something that felt like a total mythomaniac: when I asked it a somewhat obscure question about a topic in economics and asked for references, it when as far as inventing a book, complete with imagined title and author name. Neither author nor title could be found by all 4 major search engines I tried (yandex, duckduck, bing, and finally, google).

[EDIT]: don't believe me?

ask it to solve x^6 + x^5 + x^4 + x^3 + x^2 + x + 1 = 0 and read through the litany of BS is produces.

Telling it, for example, that one of the provided solution simply does not work when fed back into the original equation doesn't deter it in any way from producing yet another failed attempt at a solution, delivered with total aplomb.

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