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America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

economist.com

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Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#81

Post by flandish »

avgcorrection wrote: post #36
yalogin wrote: post #27

This has a very ominous inevitable tone to it. I question how wise it is to even publish an article with this tone given how grave the consequences of such a war would be. Just reading the title sent a chill for me. Any war like that will push the whole world into protracted recession and it will be hell for every country.

The Press’ place is to massage public opinion. It is not their place to worry about the consequences of yelling Fire.

Except for when they are a purchased tool for a philosophy called “manufactured consent.” Remember all those articles about why we “should” go invade iraq? Or that report about a completely fabricated gulf of tonkin incident?

The media has a duty to report facts, only after they know them to be facts.

Well.. they used to have that duty. Now it’s just clickbait.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#82

Post by yucky »

ianburrell wrote: post #4
aborsy wrote: post #3

I don’t think such war will happen. The tensions will be on technological “supremacy”, political and economic isolation, corporate sanctions, and international support, somewhat a Cold War. I also believe China is a peaking (rather than a rising) power at this stage. Its growth rate has declined from 14% to less than 5% now. China is facing an aging population (due to the one child policy of the past), international…

I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option. I think the best thing China could do would be negotiate with Taiwan for their independence. It is funny that option is never suggested as possibility.

  > It is funny that option is never suggested as possibility.
Nothing funny about it, it's an absolute non-starter for them which is why it's never suggested.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#83

Post by ianburrell »

unity1001 wrote: post #78
ianburrell wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. It doesn't really show you are strong to threaten to invade another country to demonstrate strength.

> China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China has to invade Taiwan only if the US starts arming Taiwan to use it as a pawn against China like how the US openly declared that it intends doing. China will not make the mistake of waiting 8 years like Russia. > China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. Any sane observer of geopolitics who doesnt have a 6-figure…

US has been arming Taiwan since its inception. How is now different? More important, Taiwan is arming itself. Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons, and they could make difference in invasion. In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons. They haven’t because US has pledge defense.

BTW, China should be clear that they might be able to invade Taiwan. But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#84

Post by unity1001 »

ianburrell wrote: post #83
unity1001 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China has to invade Taiwan only if the US starts arming Taiwan to use it as a pawn against China like how the US openly declared that it intends doing. China will not make the mistake of waiting 8 years like Russia. > China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. Any sane observer of geopolitics who doesnt have a 6-figure…

US has been arming Taiwan since its inception. How is now different? More important, Taiwan is arming itself. Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons, and they could make difference in invasion. In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons. They haven’t because US has pledge defense. BTW, China should be clear that they might be able to invade Taiwan. But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircr…

> US has been arming Taiwan since its inception. How is now different?

After Nixon and the relations being restored in between China and the US, a detente was reached on this. The US avoided arming Taiwan in a way that it could be a threat to China, and China did not press the issue. The US broke that detente.

> Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons

No non-superpower country is capable of building their own weapons that could allow them to stand against a superpower.

> In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons

Having a few missiles that can mount nuclear warheads and travel a thousand km is not having 'nuclear weapons'. Every major superpower has the air defense systems that can shoot down such missiles from up to 500-600 km and dozens of kilometers altitude. You must have a legion of such missiles with multiple warheads to be able to saturate the defenses.

> But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles.

That's decade old thinking. China has hypersonic anti ship missiles that can reach over 1k km now, and a lot of submarines. Gone are the days of the aircraft carrier...

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#85

Post by ashwagary »

woooooo wrote: post #62
sb618 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I definitely appreciate that inflammatory articles might push us closer to war but it also seems rather dangerous to cover up anything that suggests war. That feels a bit reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain before WWII.

It's been entirely media driven since 2018 on the topic. Nobody cared about China before then, and they wouldn't care now if it weren't for the constant hype. Anyone recall even seeing the acronym "CCP" in print before 2018 or so? Then suddenly it's ubiquitous and everyone knows it.

I too noticed a drastic ramp up in anti-China headlines at a certain point in the early part of the Trump administration.

The shift was not exclusive to the media though. The US state department pivoted and went as far as removing active terrorist groups executing attacks near (Afghanistan, Turkmenistan) and in Western China, that the US itself was bombing, from the US terror watch lists at around the same time.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#86

Post by exolymph »

merth wrote: post #51
no_wizard wrote: post #40

Is anyone really equipped to go to war with the USA? Unrestrained war with the US war machine would be....catastrophic, to say the least. I mean for both parties, but the US out spends everyone by a wide margin[0] and the US military is very advanced and well resourced, and well trained. Even if the fighting was just constrained to Taiwan, it would be pretty bad for everyone, but I think it would be especially bad fo…

US counldn't deal with bunch of homeless with ak47 for 20 years. good luck with that

Not due to lack of practical capacity but lack of the political will to commit large-scale massacre. (Not saying we should have.)

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#87

Post by skinnymuch »

Invictus0 wrote: post #68
skinnymuch wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. Is this bravado any different than what Europeans and Americans regularly do? Look at the imperialism and colonizing. Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Of course Taiwan and Ukraine are serious circumstances but so are Yemen, Congo, Palestine, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Afghanistan, Ira…

Seriously? Both-sidesing Taiwan? All China has to do is not invade . > Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Why can't China leave Taiwan alone?

> Why can't China leave Taiwan alone?

They should.

Now respond to my post in good faith as the rules of HN dictate.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#88

Post by skinnymuch »

ianburrell wrote: post #72
skinnymuch wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. Is this bravado any different than what Europeans and Americans regularly do? Look at the imperialism and colonizing. Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Of course Taiwan and Ukraine are serious circumstances but so are Yemen, Congo, Palestine, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Afghanistan, Ira…

I agree that the West has done terrible things. In fact, I think China would have success with global south exploiting that. China should learn the lesson not to conquer people, not that they need to act the same way. China should go do its thing, making stuff and helping other countries, and only fight when they need to. The way for China to show they are the strongest and best is to give Taiwan its independence. My…

My point was the casual way of demeaning the world by saying most won’t trade with China. People aren’t dollars.

> authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules

Westerners have a misconception of what is authoritarian or democratic, and what isn’t.

China is authoritarian but so is manufacturing consent under liberal regimes. There’s a startling amt of propaganda the west takes in to believe in their own superiority. I listed many examples of western imperialism and mucking about. That’s a fraction of the total amount. Which is many, many times more than China.

China is bad. So is the west. Everything you fear about Chinese thinking is a mirror of western thinking except add smugness and elitism to the mix.

How does the US rule?

> Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while.

Less weapons to kill innocent Palestinians with? Sounds okay to me.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#89

Post by avgcorrection »

flandish wrote: post #81
avgcorrection wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Press’ place is to massage public opinion. It is not their place to worry about the consequences of yelling Fire.

Except for when they are a purchased tool for a philosophy called “manufactured consent.” Remember all those articles about why we “should” go invade iraq? Or that report about a completely fabricated gulf of tonkin incident? The media has a duty to report facts, only after they know them to be facts. Well.. they used to have that duty. Now it’s just clickbait.

That’s what I meant by massage public opinion.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#90

Post by avgcorrection »

galaxytachyon wrote: post #53
avgcorrection wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watch Fox News to see that Republicans have a very (shall we say) “militaristic approach” to the Great Powers enemies of the US. The US is still not going to attack them.

I don't think that is a fair comparison. Fox News isn't an official government mouthpiece. For whatever favors they have, they still can't speak for the US government. No news source in the US is. China can't claim the same with the amount of censorship and information control they have. If a main news channel in China is pushing some type of information, it is very likely such information was explicitly approved by…

> The uniformity and obedience of the media, which any dictator would admire, thus succeeds in concealing what is plainly the real reason for the US attack, sometimes conceded openly by Administration spokesmen.

— Chomsky, Turning the Tide postscript, Sec. 2.3

My emphasis.

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