Just wondering, why do posts like this consistently have an unpaywalled archive link as the top comment, and it's unreply-able? It almost seems automated except it's a different commenter every time. Is there some system detecting those comments and floating them to the top, then disabling replies? ( @dang )
A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
21–30 of 186 posts
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#22Isn't it some kind of survivorship bias to ask the winners of such bets afterwards?
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#23Isn't it some kind of survivorship bias to ask the winners of such bets afterwards?
Yes. Their reasoning can still be interesting.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#24This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937
I remember how Jon Stewart on the Daily show made fun of him about getting predictions for Bear Sterns wrong and got under his skin when the financial crisis of 2008 was afoot.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#25This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937
Always Inverse Cramer
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#26My eyesight rapidly deteriorated once I reached the second paragraph.
for anyone else suffering with poor sight, if you paste this in your console it should help.
document.querySelector('.paywallActive').style='filter: none'
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#27Just wondering, why do posts like this consistently have an unpaywalled archive link as the top comment, and it's unreply-able? It almost seems automated except it's a different commenter every time. Is there some system detecting those comments and floating them to the top, then disabling replies? ( @dang )
I could see how they float to the top organically, so it might be just the unreplyable aspect that is automated?
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#28Could anyone in the know explain how "shorting" works?
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
It specifically says at the end they refuse to give the amount. Given the research involved, and a well known firm, I'm sure it wasn't pocket change.
They might have bet a million dollars on it, but if their normal short position is also around a million dollars, then I am not as impressed. If they wanted to show everyone how smart they were, I expected a quote something like: "We were so confident in our analysis that we invested 10x our normal short position in it!"
There is a reason the interviewee pivots from questions about how big of a take to from the short to the situation “certainly not something to be celebrated.”
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#30Could anyone in the know explain how "shorting" works?
You borrow some stock. You sell it. You wait a while. You buy the same stock again. You give it back.
It's very similar to when you take a loan:
You borrow some money. You 'sell' the money for goods and services. You wait a while. You acquire some money again. You give the money back.
In both cases, you pay some interest while the loan is outstanding. (In both cases, you typically pay the interest with money. Instead of with small pieces of stock.)
As always Wikipedia is worth a look: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance)