A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
1–10 of 186 posts
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#2key grafs
As of Dec. 2021, SVB’s interest expense on its deposits was $62 million. By Dec. 2022, it was $862 million. By the end of this year, Wettlaufer was projecting it to be nearly $4 billion.
When Silicon Valley Bank posted its annual report at the end of last month, non-interest-bearing deposit levels were clearly deflating. And it seemed like those figures would keep falling. Wettlaufer was projecting non-interest-bearing deposits might go down to $40 billion, from $80 billion, meaning that SVB would have had to come up with $32 billion somewhere else to fill that hole.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#3Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#4Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#5This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#6My eyesight rapidly deteriorated once I reached the second paragraph.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#7I couldn't find anywhere in the article where it gave an amount of the short position. Did this guy bet the farm on it? If so, he deserves praise (and the returns) for his insight. If, on the other hand, this was just one of dozens (or hundreds) of small short positions his fund invested in, then not so much.
Anyone can bet small amounts all over the roulette table and then only tell their friends about the ones that won while ignoring all the ones that lost.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#8I remember listening to an episode of Odd Lots a couple of months back discussing how someone was using the the Fed Discount Window.
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cub21ueWNvbnR...
I'm not finance savvy enough to determine if this fits, but I've been wondering if some kind of event might follow
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#9This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937
this guy is not comprehensible. i do know who he is, but wow... how times have caught up to, maybe both of us i guess.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#10I couldn't find anywhere in the article where it gave an amount of the short position. Did this guy bet the farm on it? If so, he deserves praise (and the returns) for his insight. If, on the other hand, this was just one of dozens (or hundreds) of small short positions his fund invested in, then not so much. Anyone can bet small amounts all over the roulette table and then only tell their friends about the ones that…
It specifically says at the end they refuse to give the amount.
Given the research involved, and a well known firm, I'm sure it wasn't pocket change.