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First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

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Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#41
post #6

In general, if anyone wants to go through all the recent 8-K filings, this is what SEC EDGAR is for. Here's a link that'll bring up all recent 8-K filings by date and time, descending: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcurrent&d... In general, I would expect a ton of 8-Ks on Monday the 13th for companies to release information on their exposure to SIVB, particularly if their exposure is minor or non-…

Your last line is key... The silent ones are who you should be concerned about, most likely.

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are banks even allowed to buy assets? Every asset is a risk. Banks should have right to do exactly two things. Keep their customers saving and issue loans. There's plenty of risks even in that activity. Every other thing bank does is just piling up risk to unreasonable levels.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_legisla...

Glass-Steagall only prevented commercial banks from owning non-investment-grade securities - from what I have read, SVB’s portfolio (of Treasuries and MBS) would’ve been entirely consistent with pre-repeal Glass-Steagall.

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#43
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are banks even allowed to buy assets? Every asset is a risk. Banks should have right to do exactly two things. Keep their customers saving and issue loans. There's plenty of risks even in that activity. Every other thing bank does is just piling up risk to unreasonable levels.

I think this was a weird thing where deposit demand was so much greater than loan demand. They had too much money and thought they were doing a safe thing. But failed to consider the time aspect and how rapid interest rate increases nuke them. Banks do provide a valuable service and having them reject deposits isn’t a solution.

I have literally no idea what the treasury people at SVB could have been thinking.

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Matt Levine reports that the reason they had to buy those low-yield investments that plummeted is because it’s tech-sector customers had too much money in the boom times. Too much deposits means they need to buy a lot of something , and in the boom times that was low-yield stuff.

Sort of the other way to handle it would be to say “we can’t find risk-free yield for the volume of cash we just had deposited, so deposits now get 0.8% instead of 1.0%” Which is kinda fine? Means you might lose some business as others chase yield. But I feel like most startups don’t actually have that much cash in the bank so they shouldn’t really be chasing yield anyway. It didn’t take a genius to predict interest…

Yeah I don't see why SVB couldn't have just rolled billions in short term T-bills instead.

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#45
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Matt Levine reports that the reason they had to buy those low-yield investments that plummeted is because it’s tech-sector customers had too much money in the boom times. Too much deposits means they need to buy a lot of something , and in the boom times that was low-yield stuff.

I'd also like to point out that VCs were telling all their portfolio companies "Pack it in and conserve cash as you're not getting another round." That caused a lot of companies that would otherwise have put their cash into an investment vehicle to instead hold it in their accounts. It will also be interesting to see if someone is going to wind up in jail for initiating the bank run. Someone shared confidential info…

Was it confidential info? The public earnings call was three days ago, investors didn’t like what they saw and the stock went into free fall, then the run started yesterday.

I think insiders might not even have realized how bad their balance sheet looked. On the earnings call the CEO was talking about how much he likes cycling to de stress, etc

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#46
post #6

In general, if anyone wants to go through all the recent 8-K filings, this is what SEC EDGAR is for. Here's a link that'll bring up all recent 8-K filings by date and time, descending: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcurrent&d... In general, I would expect a ton of 8-Ks on Monday the 13th for companies to release information on their exposure to SIVB, particularly if their exposure is minor or non-…

Your last line is key... The silent ones are who you should be concerned about, most likely.

Same with startups. If you are an investor and not that company’s first call, then one of two things happen: email saying not exposed, or silence as they work through things.

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#47
post #6

In general, if anyone wants to go through all the recent 8-K filings, this is what SEC EDGAR is for. Here's a link that'll bring up all recent 8-K filings by date and time, descending: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcurrent&d... In general, I would expect a ton of 8-Ks on Monday the 13th for companies to release information on their exposure to SIVB, particularly if their exposure is minor or non-…

Your last line is key... The silent ones are who you should be concerned about, most likely.

That's a very prescient thought. But isn't there a fiduciary duty that is legally mandated to disclose in times like this?

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#48
I'd really like to know where people are withdrawing their money from these banks to. They're not taking suitcases of cash, so it must be flowing to some other financial institutions. Is it going to traditional big banks (BofA, Wells, Chase, etc.)?

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#49
post #5

The fact that they filed a last minute report on a Friday night speaks volumes about the amount of withdrawals they must be experiencing. This is about as strong as a signal they could put out to stop a possible run.

Another interpretation is that this is generally how the FDIC likes to do things: take over on Friday and reopen on Monday. Not sure that will happen in this case but the regulators get two days to prepare to reopen, which at least in recorded US history is seamless and without risk for retail depositors.

The 2-day shutdown is hence critical for the functioning of the financial system. Same for reporting earnings afterhours. Those calling for 24/7 trading are aloof of how entrenched systems need change management

Re: First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Matt Levine reports that the reason they had to buy those low-yield investments that plummeted is because it’s tech-sector customers had too much money in the boom times. Too much deposits means they need to buy a lot of something , and in the boom times that was low-yield stuff.

Sort of the other way to handle it would be to say “we can’t find risk-free yield for the volume of cash we just had deposited, so deposits now get 0.8% instead of 1.0%” Which is kinda fine? Means you might lose some business as others chase yield. But I feel like most startups don’t actually have that much cash in the bank so they shouldn’t really be chasing yield anyway. It didn’t take a genius to predict interest…

Yeah, I would not have done it. You always go short maturity at low rates.

Unless you are borrowing, then the opposite.

Depositors weren’t getting anything. I’m guessing SVB wanted yield for shareholders.

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