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French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

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Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#491

Post by gwright »

x-complexity wrote: post #483

The one thing I'm not seeing in the comments is a discussion on the fundamentals of pension schemes. In principle, a pension scheme will work forever, in isolation, as long as the following inequality holds true: (A:=(working_pop * avg_income * avg_pension_tax_%)) >= (B:=(retirement_pop * avg_benefit_payout)) If investments are allowed in said scheme, the inequality can be relaxed slightly: A + (C:=(investments * ret…

Unfortunately it seems like "Plan D: treasury_money_printing" is the easiest option politically despite its eventual problems.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#492

Post by z2 »

dangwhy wrote: post #490
atleastoptimal wrote: post #304

In the US at least, the original retirement age, set in 1935, was 65. The average life expectancy was 60. Today in the US it's 77.8. In France, it's 82. As populations age into a higher percentage of retirees, the system is forced to cope with more people who are purely consumers, and contribute nothing to the system. In a post-scarcity world, this would not be a problem, but currently with the oldest generations own…

> . Today in the US it's 77.8. In France, it's 82. Its 73.5 for males. you only have 8 years after retirement :/ https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm

Actually, with conditional probability, if you can make it to 65 as a male, you're expected to get 18 more years. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#493

Post by andsoitis »

jasonfarnon wrote: post #449
ajmurmann wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Probably some 50% of the economy is pure bullshit that nobody asked for, just keeping each other busy. Obviously this cannot be true. "The economy" isn't some magical object somewhere, but the emergent behavior from all our needs, desires and faults. If something is truly not wanted by anyone, nobody will pay for the work to get done. That's the magic of the invisible hand of capitalism. Doing stuff that truly nobo…

I think OP's implication is not that nobody wants the 50% of pure bullshit, but that want is itself manufactured by the economy.

> want is itself manufactured by the economy.

I would frame it with a different emphasis. Want is inherent to living organisms, humans and others alike. The economy discovers, amplifies, and satisfies our wants. But it is also important to remember that economies emergent, not some external object imposed on humans.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#494

Post by Izikiel43 »

oblio wrote: post #318
Izikiel43 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many of the companies that provide 401(k) were on the verge of collapse in 2008. The stock market went to shit, not the providers. The 401k appeal is that it's an account you *own* and the government can't touch for money, it would be the same as expropriating a bank account, which to be fair, the Argentinian goverment kind of did in 2001, hence why since then, people there save money in usd cash or in a foreign ac…

Ask Cypriots about bank account haircuts :-)

I'm from Argentina, the government there did that before it was cool

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#495

Post by cmehdy »

aluminussoma wrote: post #476
cmehdy wrote: post #465

As a French citizen, I find it unsurprising that the usual top comments here are all about numbers. Life expectancy going up, do your part, work work work. That people are angry is not about the damn numbers. It's about the attitude of a political class that had private restaurant dinners behind closed doors during lockdown times where the population was fined for being out walking their dogs, it's about a president…

Thank you for adding this perspective. The news reports we receive do not provide this context so it is easy to think it is only about numbers.

Thanks.

I didn't even get into the minister pushing for the reform doing crosswords during a parliamentary session on his subject, the inflation absolutely exploding in France, the surge of students falling below poverty lines and needing food stamps worse than during covid, the ministers genuinely advising the population to "wear turtlenecks during the winter", the abuse of 49.3 article (similar to Canada's notwithstanding clause) exactly 10 times in order to push laws that were not democratically agreed upon, the fact that the prime minister got a football t-shirt for Christmas that had that very same "49.3" number on it and really appreciated it.

Or the political failure when handling the CCC (citizen's climate convention) that Macron himself created to satisfy people's expectations, and which actually delivered amazingly as a panel of 150 citizens representing all parts of France giving educated and actionable input on what the country should do. The energy prices putting small business owners on the street in a country where nuclear power could have pretty much carried the load but has been grossly mistreated (admittedly by nearly every single president in a long time). The recent Uber papers, where Macron was directly cited, at a crucial time where now most poor jobs in France have literally been called "uberized" in pejorative terms. And that his party calls for "decency" in the mist of all of this.

French people aren't dumb, contrary to what the sneering suits might believe. This was not only poorly timed, but absolutely tonedeaf by the government, and revealing of the amount of contempt they have for people who at a majority reluctantly elected Macron.

Some sources:

Students hardships: https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/23/inflation-crisis-french-...

Dussopt and his crosswords: https://todaytimeslive.com/world/219510.html

49.3 t-shirt: https://24newsrecorder.com/politics/226033

Wear turtlenecks: https://www.thelocal.fr/20220927/french-minister-advises-wea...

CCC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_Convention_for_Climat...

CCC: https://www.publicdeliberation.net/the-promises-and-disappoi...

Uber papers: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/10/emmanuel-macron...

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#496

Post by jonfw »

ticviking wrote: post #471
jonfw wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Just move to one of the most remote and inhabitable places in the world, work twice as much as average, and you too can join the middle class"

This is exactly how America became America.

Except for the mainland of America has things like warm weather and days of uniform length

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#497

Post by cmehdy »

gwright wrote: post #488
cmehdy wrote: post #465

As a French citizen, I find it unsurprising that the usual top comments here are all about numbers. Life expectancy going up, do your part, work work work. That people are angry is not about the damn numbers. It's about the attitude of a political class that had private restaurant dinners behind closed doors during lockdown times where the population was fined for being out walking their dogs, it's about a president…

> deficit that was literally created by giving money to large companies and rich people in the form of tax deductions, I have no particular knowledge of French macro economic policies, but a tax deduction is not "giving money". It is "not taking money". Your framing assumes that corporate or individual earnings belong to the government and the government can decide to allow the money to be "given" to the taxpayer. Wh…

Not taking money that otherwise would be taken absolutely is giving money. Let me know if the government decides to absolve you of all taxes if you don't think at the end of your year that you've been given money. Also that's conveniently the narrative that Macron's party would adopt were it the other way (read: when they "give" a one-off cheque to students or poor people). Accounting tricks have broad shoulders to take the load off the political bullshit of our era.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#498

Post by simoncion »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #485
jtr1 wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. At least in the US, contributions to social security stop once you hit 160k, making it a regressive tax. Raise that cap and like magic, the system is solvent. 2. Growing home prices come from a lack of supply. And you’ve completely flattened an entire generation into one wealth class, which is a gross distortion of the facts.

Wow, I'm old. In my brain, it used to be about 80K. That was a long time ago! Here is the official history: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html The jump between 2022 and 2023 is huge.

> The jump between 2022 and 2023 is huge.

It's not that far off from actual inflation during that period (and inflation that is currently ongoing).

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#499

Post by tekla »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #370
_8j50 wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, you don't freaking need your own new house to start a family. In most countries most people never buy a new house. Second, wealth is not zero-sum, there isn't a magic pot of gold redistributed between people. As value and demand are added to the economy, so is wealth because the new young people with demands can provide skills or time to be used in value creation and then they also (and older folks that…

If we removed the electoral college in the US, or if voting day were a national holiday, all those issues would automatically be addressed. The old and conservative make too powerful a voting block, and it perpetuates every corporate, oligarchic, xenophobic greed cycle one could point to as a rot in our system. I don't think old people are bad because they're just taking government money and have big fancy houses, bu…

The "all problems will be solved if all my political policies are implemented" seems to be a fairly insidious strain of authoritarianism that is infecting the progressives.
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