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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese would have to pull off the most difficult military operation in the books (i.e., a contested amphibious landing into heavily defended shores), with a force that has never conducted a major operation of any kind, while using uncle's modifed freighter and dad's fishing vessel in place of built for purpose amphibious assault vessels. All in a sector who's commander has turned over 4-5 times (I forget the exa…

>pull off the most difficult military operation in the books (i.e., a contested amphibious landing into heavily defended shores) West keeps insisting on this outdated Normandy comparison with the PLA from the 60s, PLA WILL NOT be doing a contested landing because they're not stupid like west keeps assuming. Modern precise modern munitions = there won't be Normandy beach heads. If anything an uncontested maritime tran…

> Uncles modified RO/RO is literally just a military amphib ship with defenses stripped out, i.e it does 90% of the job.

Uncle has converted his private ferry [0] and other vessels to act as amphibious assault and support vessels. Certainly, China is on a building binge regarding amphibious assault vessels (e.g., Type 075), but it will take years to build, train, and crew these warships and others like it.

> As much as RU is a reduced state, so is the EU as a block.

These two things are not remotely the same. Russia has all but burned through their enormous inheritance of equipment from the Soviet days. That equipment can never be replaced, as Russia is no longer a superpower. Russia will become a second or third rate power among European countries, depending on how long the war drags out. Meanwhile, Europe is mostly sending old kit out of their warehouses and stockyards, with some notable exceptions. Europe has the economy to rearm, while Russia does not. Most importantly, Europe's military industrial base ought to be in a strong position before China is ready to invade.

[0] https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2021/08/04/china-reportedl...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#312
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PRC will not allow TW to be resupplied by west simply because legally that means foreign hardware operating on Chinese soil to support separatists during Chinese civil war. Optically that's a none starter. The likely outcome is PRC will mine TW shores and continues to crater TW airfields that TW allies can't supply TW even if they wanted to because no one is going to even attempt to supply under such dangerous condit…

Why would PRC disallow foreign military aid to Taiwan as a nonstarter in an active conflict? Taiwan already buys extensive military hardware internationally. Like direct strikes to mainland china - direct strikes to continental us/ us territories imply a global conflict. Article 5 would be called on, and NATO would be drawn into the conflict. China would struggle against a G7 boycott. It’s plausible that EU stays neu…

>disallow foreign military aid

Current hardware delivery aren't coming through during active hostilities. Unlike RU who doesn't have capabilities to deny vast UKR + EU land logistics, PRC can proactively deny air+maritime around TW. Optics of PRC allowing foreign powers to actively support seperatist gov on Chinese territory during active Chinese civil war which includes TW soil and 12nm territorial waters is not something tolerable for domestic PRC politics. Or that TW cannot be supplied during war time without invading legal Chinese soil something PRC sovereignty politics won't allow due to history. That's the significant political consideration, UKR supporters moving supplies through soverign UKR territory aren't legal belligerants, supplyiers of TW that necessarily involves what PRC percieves to be invading Chinese territory are.

>imply a global conflict

Yes as does blockading PRC, that's where the entire US can choke PRC strategy falls apart, it now feasibly escalates to CONUS war. If US blockades PRC (i.e. US initiates legal war), then PRC reciprocating attack on CONUS no longer falls under art5. Of course NATO could still join, but with what hardware, based where? Even G7 boycott weatherable, this isn't 2010s when PRC was relatively export dependent, export GDP to west is now barely 10%, with mutual knock on supply chains. Most of G7+ are MUCH more trade dependant than PRC as well and will hurt more, i.e. even least trade dependant US is going to have to contest with trillions lost in advanced industries because TW leading edge semi gone, and likely crippled domestic US semi because they will still be dependant on east asian semi supply chains that's not going to survive a broad war. Meanwhile most of that hardware is already sanctioned / denied to PRC. This doesn't suggest PRC wants a broader war, but broader war does open up host of strategic reach goals and opportunities that asymmetrically devastates PRC containers.

>before they had indigenous weapons and while they had a nuclear protector

Yes, PRC had no issue tussling with nuclear powers while not being nuclear power herself. And she tussled with her alleged nuclear protector USSR as well. Multiple times + other geopolitical drama, all less important than TW.

> civilian targets are targeted

This excludes TW civilian targets (and likely strategic targets on JP, SKR, PH, AU etc), as old addage goes, is US willing to trade nukes for Los Angeles over Taipei. Proxies can fight to the last man / brick. If US doesn't want to escalate to nuclear with PRC then the point of CONUS retaliatory strikes is to deter US from dirupting PRC civilian homefront, which includes PRC shipping. But really I'd say esclation ladder jumps near nuclear once homeland attacks, even if just military are happening, which many US war planners still think is allowable - plenty of entrenched hubris thinking unilaterally attacking PRC mainland targets would not invite proportional retaliation on CONUS or other belligerants against PRC. Chance of US blockading PRC or hitting mainland PRC increasingly unlikely as PRC fills out conventional CONUS escalation rungs. Intervention calculus changes when there's homeland vunerability, this includes US allies whose critical infra is vunerable to PRC global strike as well. If anything home land vunerability limit nuclear escalation by stopping escalation at critical conventional rungs and limit broadness of response. Alternatively this is also a world where conventional escalation can reach near existential levels of mutually assured destruction. Imagine escalation ladder with rung where US+co refinery goes boom and first world economies simply ceases to be viable. That's what's skewing escalation dominance towards PRC over core PRC concerns over TW, which starts at preventing foreign aid to speed up TW collapse/capitulation.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they do, problem solved. Taiwan can also draw a giant jellyfish in the sand on a beach and tell China to back down. If they do, problem solved. If they don't, at that stage it probably didn't hurt. The trick is that once you demonstrated your capability (either nuke detonation or giant jellyfish drawing) you need to explain to your adversary how this capability is going to cause them pain they cannot bear. This…

The nuke is pretty self explanatory imo, the jelly fish a bit less so. So why even bother with defending Taiwan if the number of Chinese casualties doesn't matter to the chinese? being a fairly calculated player I believe that there exists some threshold of pain that even china would think twice before shrugging it off.

Of course Chinese casualties matter. But why do you think a few smuggled-in nukes going to change that materially? What do you propose to do with the nukes? How many warheads do you propose to need to do it?

> being a fairly calculated player I believe that there exists some threshold of pain that even china would think twice before shrugging it off.

This is not in doubt. It just that nukes are not magic. They are not an automatic “you won” card.

The most sensible thing I can think of with nukes regarding the protection of Taiwan is to hit Chinese deep sea harbours. If you can distrupt enough of them then maybe they can’t board their troops. But that is a lot of warheads, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they can restore some semblance of operations even in a nuked harbour.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>pull off the most difficult military operation in the books (i.e., a contested amphibious landing into heavily defended shores) West keeps insisting on this outdated Normandy comparison with the PLA from the 60s, PLA WILL NOT be doing a contested landing because they're not stupid like west keeps assuming. Modern precise modern munitions = there won't be Normandy beach heads. If anything an uncontested maritime tran…

> Uncles modified RO/RO is literally just a military amphib ship with defenses stripped out, i.e it does 90% of the job. Uncle has converted his private ferry [0] and other vessels to act as amphibious assault and support vessels. Certainly, China is on a building binge regarding amphibious assault vessels (e.g., Type 075), but it will take years to build, train, and crew these warships and others like it. > As much…

No, private ferries are duo use hulls EXPLICITYLY built to military standards "disguised" as / duo used for civilian purpose. As I've said, these RO/ROs will likely do brunt of the hulling because mil amphib including 075s are NOT being massively procured. Proponents of PRC not having enough dedicated amphib is not accepting the fact that massive dedicated amphib is NOT part of sealift strategy. Hasn't been for 10+ years for those that study PLA acquistion. Duo use civil/military sealift IS the strategy, and currently what has been built, trained, crewed is able to move massive amount of troops already. Yes they'll build, train, crew more, but that only extends the already gargantuan sealift capability that is more than enough for TW scenarios that most credible western analysts previously thought PRC needed. 7 group armies is an ABSURD amount of sealift.

>Europe

Europe already showed a lot of their acquisition hand, nothing meaningful for IndoPac and like AUKUS, big pieces like naval combatants are decades away while PRC dropping them like dumplings. RU, going through an active war is actually/literally has relevant industrial base to rearm, while also burning through legacy hardware just like EU, but with more and cheaper resource autarky and motivation to acquire at industrial scale for active war. Meanwhile Europe is TALKING about rearming, which is acquiring token SRK/US hardware as stop gab before figuring out indigenous efforts that will take decades. DE promises to raise spending already stalling, and they're key supplier in EU defense whose entire industrial base in general will have to deal with more expensive inputs. This is nothing like PRC who has massive industrial base and now cheap RU resources, hence EU prognosis being overall reduced. Like don't get me wrong, EU will likely increase defense capabilities relative to RU, but will be long and not smooth process, and questionable if their acquistions will be effective in the first place, especially for IndoPac. Two things can be true, EU can become a stronger bloc against RU, but also relatively weaker bloc against PRC relative to pre UKR war EU conditions. Reality at this time is both RU/EU are reduced powers, likely for decades and that works in PRC favour because while it prefers independant EU vs US+EU, writing off a weak EU that can't substantively boost US even if they wanted to is more reliable for planning because less need to transatlantic consider political shifts.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's astounding that you believe international law actually means anything. If it did, Russia wouldn't be invading Ukraine.

Russia invaded Ukraine using the precedent set by NATO in Yugoslavia.

You must be an incredibly stupid person to believe that a nation led by a Jewish person is some kind of haven for Nazis. FOAD.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#316
post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

So you have no qualification to say in Taiwan.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Ukraine using the precedent set by NATO in Yugoslavia.

You must be an incredibly stupid person to believe that a nation led by a Jewish person is some kind of haven for Nazis. FOAD.

[flagged]

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps, but my point is, the legal position is almost irrelevant. To flip it around, if ROC was clearly a legally independent entity and PRC didn't like it, this whole debacle would look the same.

The only reason there is a debacle is because US is interfering in internal affairs of a country half way across the world.

This kind of tussle is sadly part and parcel of being a superpower. China does it, Russia does it, US does it. Like with nuclear deterrence, it sucks but if you don't do it, you lose to those who do.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason there is a debacle is because US is interfering in internal affairs of a country half way across the world.

This kind of tussle is sadly part and parcel of being a superpower. China does it, Russia does it, US does it. Like with nuclear deterrence, it sucks but if you don't do it, you lose to those who do.

Except US does it on a whole different scale. What US is doing in Taiwan would be equivalent to China or Russia funding and arming a separatist movement in Texas or Florida.

And of course, you're right that we live in a might makes right world, but there in lies the problem for US. As China becomes more powerful and assertive, this kind of behavior will lead to a confrontation sooner or later.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Uncles modified RO/RO is literally just a military amphib ship with defenses stripped out, i.e it does 90% of the job. Uncle has converted his private ferry [0] and other vessels to act as amphibious assault and support vessels. Certainly, China is on a building binge regarding amphibious assault vessels (e.g., Type 075), but it will take years to build, train, and crew these warships and others like it. > As much…

No, private ferries are duo use hulls EXPLICITYLY built to military standards "disguised" as / duo used for civilian purpose. As I've said, these RO/ROs will likely do brunt of the hulling because mil amphib including 075s are NOT being massively procured. Proponents of PRC not having enough dedicated amphib is not accepting the fact that massive dedicated amphib is NOT part of sealift strategy. Hasn't been for 10+ y…

> RU, going through an active war is actually/literally has relevant industrial base to rearm

Russia doesn't have any money to rearm. Their economy is smaller than Canada, is about the same size as Italy, and ~9X smaller than the EU+UK. Russia will not be able to help China in any significant way. China is on its own if it attacks Taiwan, without a large power to support it.

> but also relatively weaker bloc against PRC relative to pre UKR war EU conditions. Reality at this time is both RU/EU are reduced powers, likely for decades and that works in PRC favour

The Europeans need to scale up their existing industrial base, not completely reimagine their forces from the ground up. That will take years, not decades. They can rearm rather quickly, considering the EU+UK's economy is larger than China's. Also, you misunderstand part of the real value of a more muscular EU; it frees up even more US resources in the Pacific.

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