Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

191–200 of 321 posts

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#191

Post by krisoft »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #63
krisoft wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war is imminent. Ok, they reveal them. What is next? Nukes are not magic. They are just weapons. What do you think would happen once they are “revealed”? What delivery mechanism are you proposing? Should they be aimed counter-force or counter-value? (Meaning are they trying to shoot the chinese nuclear launchers or are they lobbing them into chinese cities?) How…

You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down. If they do, problem solved. If they don't, at that stage it probably didn't hurt.

> If they do, problem solved.

Taiwan can also draw a giant jellyfish in the sand on a beach and tell China to back down. If they do, problem solved. If they don't, at that stage it probably didn't hurt.

The trick is that once you demonstrated your capability (either nuke detonation or giant jellyfish drawing) you need to explain to your adversary how this capability is going to cause them pain they cannot bear. This part is unclear with your plan and mine too!

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#192

Post by messe »

epolanski wrote: post #179
tablespoon wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, they sound like Taiwan is part of China, something the entire world and Taiwan itself officially recognizes. That presumes the "official" position is the genuine position, which is often not the case . With regards to Taiwan, "official" positions are often lies tied in knots to appease Mainland China's sensibilities.

There's an endless number of internal and international reasons beyond appeasing the PRC.

Such as?

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#193

Post by dragon-hn »

epolanski wrote: post #165
Manuel_D wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The PRC did send troops to Korea during the Korean war, the result of which is the north Korean dictatorship that abuses it's citizens and threatens nuclear war. It also drove out the KMT, which was part of "the west" in the sense that they were the principle Chinese Allied faction combating the empire of Japan during WWII. That and continued violation of territorial waters of surrounding countries. "China hasn't lai…

So for the US troops it was fine to go there, but for chinese not?

Who said that?

Also, the US were there under UNSC resolution. Not so much for the PRC.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#194

Post by yogthos »

tarkin2 wrote: post #136
yogthos wrote: post #31

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…

You're being disingenuous. Look at the articles mentioned in the quote. "Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances". In particular: "The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan"[1]. So the US supports a "One China policy", "does not support Taiwanese independence" and "does not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan." And it wil…

[flagged]

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#195

Post by yogthos »

yongjik wrote: post #180
yogthos wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this has what to do with US interfering in the politics a Chinese province again?

If we were to stick to the legal fiction that there is only one China, you will have to follow through, instead of switching the narrative in the middle. Show me an international agreement where the government of ROC is a considered "Chinese province." In the "one China" world, foreign governments talking with a Chinese government sitting at Taipei is no more "interfering with a Chinese province" than them talking wi…

I've literally provided you with links demonstrating that. You can also read what UN has to say.

United Nations - Restoration of the lawful rights of the People's Republic of China in the United Nations (October 1971): https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/192054?ln=en

UN - Final Clauses of Multilateral Treaties Handbook (2003): https://treaties.un.org/doc/source/publications/fc/english.p...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#196

Post by yogthos »

manuelabeledo wrote: post #105
yogthos wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe one of us didn't. Also, maybe keep reading the statement from US State Department until you comprehend it.

I read it. I'm quite familiar with the US and UN positions on China. The first link doesn't say what you thing it does, though. It is even written by the de facto ambassador of Taiwan to Japan. But even ignoring all those links, Taiwan is de facto an independent country. The PRC cannot assert any sort of power in the island, and PRC citizens are not considered Taiwanese nationals.

This is literally false according to UN and international law.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#197

Post by infamia »

yogthos wrote: post #170
nl wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US State Department literally recognizes Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, No, it explicitly references the Six Assurances right there, which says it doesn't: > The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.

US State Department says in black and white on their website that Taiwan is part of China. The fact that you keep trying to pretend there's some ambiguity here is beyond hilarious.

Avtually, he is correct and you are badly misunderstanding the U.S. position of strategic ambiguity [0]. The PRC and the ROC believed for decades and each one claimed that they are both the one true China and the other is an imposter. The US agrees that there is one true China, but they won't say which one. Confusing? That's pretty much the point.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_of_deliberate_ambigui...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#198

Post by krisoft »

simplotek wrote: post #190
krisoft wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From here on I will call this tactic “stopping a charging rhino with a bubble blower”. It does not have a credible chance of hurting the rhino. It won’t stop the rhino directly, but maybe it confuses the rhino? And maybe the confused rhino stops, instead of stomping on the cause of confusion?

> It does not have a credible chance of hurting the rhino. I don't follow. What exactly leads you to believe that lobbing nukes at an invasion force's staging area and/or neighboring military bases "does not have a credible chance of hurting" the invader?

I see your point. Obviously it would hurt the troops the nuke explode over. Then the Chinese send in the next group. Or pepper your cities with their ICBMs. Or both.

I hope you will believe me without proper citations that they just have a lot of troops.[1] And there is no reason to think they would need to bunch them up. How many smuggled in nukes are we imagining here?

1: this is the orbat of the Chinese rocket forces from 2020 https://www.aboyandhis.blog/post/mapping-the-people-s-libera...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#199

Post by tarkin2 »

yogthos wrote: post #194
tarkin2 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being disingenuous. Look at the articles mentioned in the quote. "Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances". In particular: "The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan"[1]. So the US supports a "One China policy", "does not support Taiwanese independence" and "does not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan." And it wil…

[flagged]

The US's position is more complex. You're trying to dumb it down to mislead. (You might want to look up defacto if you don't think they have defacto independence from the PRC)

If the people of Florida want Russian-backed independence, as the people of Taiwan want US-backed independence then sure, go for it, my friend.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#200

Post by [deleted] »

Aperocky wrote: post #65
jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

> I would announce it is now a independent Country. I am disappointed to see HN devolve into armchair general territory. In this specific case, the constitution ruling over Taiwan is the Constitution of Republic of China adopted in 1946 in Nanjing, before the PRC was a thing. In general most of Taiwan does not believe it needs to do anything to "proclaim" their independence, only a tiny minority want to change the co…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN