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French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

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Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#231
post #210

One big challenge I see with the whole business about pension reform (and government spending in fact) as a public debate is that two sides are talking on totally different planes. In France, and someday very soon, here in the US. And the public in a certain sense, will problematically have to end up voting a simple yes/no on extremely complex topics which are incentivized to push buttons on single issues. cf. Brexit…

Do you have some kind of similar study that doesn't come out of the Republican Party? Maybe something a little more non-partisan? An example of the flaws of this argument/article is how Social Security is self-funded, and not in any financial jeopardy on its own. [1] Some of the other entitlement programs on the list also work that way. Regardless, my understanding is that a government's budget never has to be balanc…

> "Do you have some kind of similar study that doesn't come out of the Republican Party? Maybe something a little more non-partisan?"

Not sure what your point is. I'm not sharing the article/infographic and animated budget scenarios as "this is what needs to happen" from some party's perspective. The point is a graphical display of the size of different buckets (which I take as fact) and the sliders that you can play with. The cases being presented are just examples. You can mentally slide the bars / cut line and see how much is required.

> "I also find it funny how the infographic doesn't show a scenario where only defense cuts are made, because it would show us how cutting defense spending is a really simple path toward a balanced budget without changing anything else.

I don't know if you have looked at it, but the defense bar is as big as each of the Medicaid, other mandatory, and "all other" spending bars each. You would have to cut the entire defense budget and still not solve the problem, and only make a fractional share of what is achieved if you implemented cuts to those other programs.

> "Another example of the flaws of this argument/article is how Social Security is self-funded, and not in any financial jeopardy on its own. [1] Some of the other entitlement programs on the list also work that way."

Maybe you have to redefine your definition of self-funded. Sure it is self-funded, as long as taxes increase a lot, given the demographic wave coming. If taxes don't increase, or one of these other options, it will run out of funds. If we don't agree on that, we have a problem. This is the entire debate about the problem we face.

> "Regardless, my understanding is that a government's budget never has to be balanced. It doesn't operate like a family household...."

Well, correct, but the question is how deep do we go into the hole. If you read the story, and the charts, you can see the projections of debt going to 200% GDP. At that point we will be paying enough interest on our debt to have funded several large programs themselves.

> "You're saying our only options are for taxes to rise, benefits decreasing, increasing retirement age, or snowballing debt. But why are those our only options?"

And the other options are?

> "The other part would be looking at government inefficiencies and flawed policies that aren't on your list. For example, should we not talk about how suburban development and the interstate highway system is a monetary drain on wealth for the majority of the country?"

Sure, talk about it, but can you change the bulk of the US to capture whatever benefit you can from that change, within 50 years to save the programs needing the money?

> "I know I've spent a lot of time on this one issue as a specific example, but it's really just one of many ways in which being smart and efficient about the use of the vast wealth generated by the US would go a long way...."

The talking is all good, but the bottom line is will your proposals come up with the money in time?

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#232

It's nice to see a populace willing to defend itself from the ruling class. If only we had this kind of organizational capability in the US.

I love it when the ruling class campaigns to make the serfs pay more tax so that they can retire in nicer castles

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every single pension system has the working population pay for the retirees. Where do you think the money comes from? Thin air? Any increase in the value of pension funds (for example) is coming from the workers.

> Every single pension system has the working population pay for the retirees. Nope. At least not completely. Canada switched away from a pure pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system in the 1990s: > Move towards a hybrid structure to take advantage of investment earnings on accumulated assets. Instead of a "pay-as-you-go" structure, the CPP is expected to be 20 per cent funded by 2014, such funding ratio to constantly increase t…

PAYGO vs investment earnings is purely a financial construct.

The central issue is that physical goods and services need to be produced around the time that they're consumed, and at a given point in time, an economy has a fixed capacity to generate these goods and services.

If you have a non-producing population, and a producing population, then the only way for the non-producing population to consume a given quantity of goods and services is for the producing population to not consume those goods and services. Whether you call the reduction in consumption ability of the working population "taxes" or "investments" doesn't change this fundamental fact, except insofar as it alters certain behavioral incentives around deferring consumption and legal frameworks around property rights.

(This isn't 100% of the story, since you can "lay claim" to production of working people overseas via international investment, but is accurate in broad strokes.)

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#234
The world needs basic income, with guaranteed housing, internet and food.

We have the means to do it.

Upto 75% of population is employed in bullshit jobs anyway (= not producing anything, or even being harmful to the society).

Only 2% of population working in agriculture already produces food for 10+ billion people, just 8% works in manufacturing (IIRC).

Give the basic income population plant-based food (== use just 25% of agriculture land) and automate transport (trains) and distribution (like amazon with its warehouses).

Everybody can choose to work on anything they want, and be compensated for doing so, of course.

We'd save the environment, stop biodiversity loss and store more carbon than produced since 1750 (reforesting grazing lands), solve the world hunger, save the environment (no need to own so much cars, burn so much fuel and time going to meaningless jobs, to pay for a roof over a head with 40 years of life, no need for so much pesticides/herbicides, deforestation etc.) ...

Hm ... time to stop dreaming. Back to work.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#235

The french pension reform attempts have been going on for decades . I remember in the mid-90s a huge, weeks- (months-?) long public transit strike which, funnily enough, kick-started Parisian's interest in roller-blading (and led to the awesome weekly Friday-night roller-blading tour [1]. If it's your thing, I highly recommend it! But be prepared to have to go over some cobblestone sections) France's system has the w…

the system IS sustained. the main white collar one even generates profits. increase the salaries that will increase money being sent to retirement funds and it won’t be a problem anymore. france income per capita has been the same for the past 20 years. they are stealing our wages to make us slaves and they blame us for not working enough.

christine lagarde pushed for blocking wage rise in the EU, european commission non elected leaders are pushing for it too. salaries for blue collar in france are becoming those of much poorer countries and in a globalised world where most of the goods are made in countries where salaries are rising as well as inflation, blocking our wages is only sending us to the third world .

it is nothing else than a betrayal at the highest level of the state

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#236
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have some kind of similar study that doesn't come out of the Republican Party? Maybe something a little more non-partisan? An example of the flaws of this argument/article is how Social Security is self-funded, and not in any financial jeopardy on its own. [1] Some of the other entitlement programs on the list also work that way. Regardless, my understanding is that a government's budget never has to be balanc…

> " Do you have some kind of similar study that doesn't come out of the Republican Party? Maybe something a little more non-partisan ?" Not sure what your point is. I'm not sharing the article/infographic and animated budget scenarios as "this is what needs to happen" from some party's perspective. The point is a graphical display of the size of different buckets (which I take as fact) and the sliders that you can pl…

> Sure, talk about it, but can you change the bulk of the US to capture whatever benefit you can from that change, within 50 years to save the programs needing the money?

We can start changing it today, and save ourselves the pain of having to deal with it when we retire.

It would also improve the quality of our day-to-day life on many dimensions, long before we do.

What the grandparent poster is alluding to is that our culture is sick with a myopic, penny-wise-pound-foolish mentality, where people are personally spending tens of thousands of dollars for a service that could be provided collectively for thousands of dollars. While also complaining about outrageous taxes.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every single pension system has the working population pay for the retirees. Where do you think the money comes from? Thin air? Any increase in the value of pension funds (for example) is coming from the workers.

> Every single pension system has the working population pay for the retirees. Where do you think the money comes from? Disagree. Counter-examples: 401k in the US Second pillar in Switzerland. The money comes from the people saving and investing their own money for their old age. Shocker, I know.

it is a common misconception that how the retirement is funded makes a huge difference in how much you need to save. In most situations, it does not matter nearly as much as people believe. Dependency ratio will determine in large part how much people will need to save to get a given level of retirement income.

For example, your 401k ability to pay for your retirement will depend on productivity gains , growth, saving, investments happen in the future. Those will look very different if you have 4 working age people for one non working person, vs 2 working age people for one non working one. In the extreme case, if nobody is working anymore when you retire, your 401k will likely worth almost nothing.

The problem in France is not how it s funded, but the fact that retirement incomes are way above the funding level. France, with Italy, are the only two OECD countries where retirees have a higher income that working people, which is insane. However, since retirees vote much more than other demographics, their too large income will not be touched.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These pensions were bankrupt the minute they were implemented - the capital appreciation rates were completely insane to start, and have only looked worse as time rolls on (which, I have to stress, is extremely tough to imagine). Delusion around pension portfolios eclipses all but the most insane crypto scams. Quite a bit of my university work in the early 2000s revolved around studying and modeling pension-type reti…

Philadelphia's pension "scheme" is crazy and borderline criminal how its implemented. Pay days on retirement date based on salary in the past several years, absolutely rampant overtime fraud, cronyism abound everywhere. There are plenty of stories of people retiring milking tens of thousands of dollars from fraudulent overtime, getting a one time payment on retirement in the hundreds of thousands, and then getting a…

A federal system sounds like a horrible idea and a really dangerous single point of failure. The consequences of such a system collapsing would be apocalyptic, and forcing everyone into a single system without competition all but guarantees corruption and mismanagement. Social security is bad enough, please don't expand it.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

French here: Though the problem is well known (at least for 40 years), No french governments has considered diversifying the source of the revenue funding the pension system. Actually its worse as the only capitalisation existing are in a process to be nationalised. Moreover, this reform is purely the outcome of political game. Macron electorat is mainly the 'boomers' who fully beneficiated of th situation ( in fact…

what is the cause of not having enough funds to maintain the current retirement age?

there are enough. there are using statistical models to predict that we wont have enough in the coming decades.

a biased model that is financed by private pension funds and led by mckinsey… I have a very simple way to make enough funds to maintain current retirement age : increase our salaries. france income per capita is the same for the past 20 years, if you raise salaries it will raise how much money goes to pension funds. problem solved

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