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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They hold that official position because China demands they do to maintain relations. The US and most other western countries don't actually believe that.

US has no business interfering in Taiwan. Period.

Who does, besides the Taiwanese?

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The free people of the world have a right to protect themselves from authoritarians and to assist other free people in doing so. That seems like a pretty fundamental moral principle to follow.

The US supported the dictators Chiang Kai-Shek and Chiang Ching-Kuo when they were oppressing the people of Taiwan. US also supported dictators in South Korea and the Philippines, as well as in Latin America.

From the end of WW2 to the end of the Cold War the US foreign policy was primarily focused on stopping communism. In some cases they supported dictatorial governments because the alternative at the time (at least in their eyes) would have been worse.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Avtually, he is correct and you are badly misunderstanding the U.S. position of strategic ambiguity [0]. The PRC and the ROC believed for decades and each one claimed that they are both the one true China and the other is an imposter. The US agrees that there is one true China, but they won't say which one. Confusing? That's pretty much the point. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_of_deliberate_ambigui...

That's complete and utter nonsense because US has formal relations with PRC and does not have formal relations with ROC.

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#254
post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't have to destroy US airplanes, only port and aircraft infrastructure in Taiwan. They would not have to risk direct conflict with the US.

Directly attacking food shipments/landings would invite more sanctions and increase the likelihood of more weapons being delivered to defend said infrastructure. Past studies have shown that even nukes have trouble knocking out rail and port infrastructure. It’s highly unlikely that china would be capable of achieving and holding full air supremacy in Taiwan. Particularly if SAM systems are readily replaced. The two…

There are 22 airports in Taiwan and only 4 with the infrastructure to handle cargo flights.

China has over 100,000 rockets and missiles estimated to be in their inventory, and the best manufacturing system in the world to produce more. A 747 cannot land on a ripped up and shredded runway, and it cannot offload goods into burning warehouses.

Not to mention the ridiculous idea of trying to feed, clothe, and care for 25 million people living on the island of Taiwan with aircraft. It cannot be compared to the berlin airlift which supplied a fraction of the people with a fraction of the goods, and whose flights lasted less than an hour. Flights to Taiwan would likely come from Tokyo, which is an 8 hour round trip. And they would probably need complex refueling operations on at least one of the legs, because Taiwan would run out of jet fuel immediately. The US doesn't have enough of a tanker fleet to support something like this, or enough cargo aircraft fitted with refueling probes.

As for ports, China does need to level them, they just need to place some of their 200,000+ sea mines in the approaches to Taiwan. They can do this with subs, aircraft, high speed watercraft and even with rocket launchers. Luckily for China, the major Taiwanese ports are on the coast which faces the strait rather than the open pacific, simplifying matters.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#255
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "separatist movement" that encompasses the majority of the population of a "province" that was never fully under Chinese control. You are spreading Chinese propaganda lies.

No, I'm stating basic facts of the situation. Educate yourself on the subject.

No, you spreading Chinese propaganda lies. I am much better educated on the subject than you.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#256
post #236
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also they import about 90% of their oil. They probably assumed that sanctions would not be all that severe, given their pivotal position in the world economy. Perhaps they'll reconsider after seeing the level of sanctions against Russia.

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You can't count? Huh

3% sided with Russia on a UN vote, all shitty countries.

Some may be neutral, but even they laughed with Russia when they said they had to invade.

Russia is a terrorist state

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#257
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, we can assume that Taiwan is an independant sovereign country in its own right according to the will of its people. The one pouring billions into creating a secessionist movement there is China.

Just like we can assume that Texas or Florida are independant sovereign countries in their own right according to the will of their people. Once DeSantis gets his private army going, I'll remember to cheer for Flordia's freedom and independence https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/florida-state-guard-...

Except Florida and Texas have actually been part of the USA for centuries, while Taiwan has never been part of the PRC and has existed as a de facto sovereign country as long as the PRC has.

Plus only a clear minority of the people of Texas or Florida actually wants to secede, whereas a large majority of Taiwanese wants to remain an independent country.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#258
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You keep quoting this, seemingly without reading it: From the "Six Assurances" mentioned right there: > The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Additionally, the "Taiwan Relations Act" (again mentioned right there) says: > The act authorizes de facto diplomatic relations with the governing authorities by giving special powers to the AIT to the level that it is the de facto emba…

None of this has an actual meaning under international law. The legal standing of Taiwan is that it's part of China. Plain and simple.

It's enormously funny how you say that a document that you yourself just cited to support your argument has no actual meaning.

Try harder, little propaganda bot.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China simply does not have the amphibious capabilities for an invasion let alone sustainment of an invading force. All the estimates I've looked at says they won't have that capability for around another ten years or so. A blockade favors the west and neighborhing friendly powers like Japan, since that would give it time to bring its mass to bear. All that talk about drones ignores that there are easy hard counters t…

PRC civilian (RO/RO) fleet used to augment landing is enough to bring 7 full Group Armies (300K+ troops) & their equipment in about 10 days. Go look at Shugarts estimates which is incomplete undercount while PRC increased auto export means sealift cap massively expanding. His outdated estimates = PRC can deliver every Brigade Combat Team in the U.S. Army in a little over 5 days for years now. It's been clear for year…

The Chinese would have to pull off the most difficult military operation in the books (i.e., a contested amphibious landing into heavily defended shores), with a force that has never conducted a major operation of any kind, while using uncle's modifed freighter and dad's fishing vessel in place of built for purpose amphibious assault vessels. All in a sector who's commander has turned over 4-5 times (I forget the exact count at this point) in the past 24 months. It would take the miracle of a lifetime for the Chinese to be able to land such a force let alone sustain such an effort if Taiwan is paying any attention at all. I don't know of any successful amphibious landing in circumstances anywhere near that challenging. Unless China can catch Taiwan asleep at the switch, their loses would be catastrophic.

Blockade favors the west because they only need enough mass for denial of area operations. That center of mass is growing as we speak with Japan arming up and larger US forces in the Philippines and Japan. This includes new Marine litorral forces built specifically for the Asian theater and the new breed of warfare we're seeing in some of the Russian/Ukraine War. China imports most of it's food and oil. It is difficult to see how their economy can sustain a blockade and sanctions, especially considering their debt crisis that will take 10 years or more to unwind the way China is currently handling things. In a prolonged comflict, their losses would be horrendous in both human, material, and capital terms.

Mass drone attacks are whiteboard fantasies with present day capabilities. Why even bring them up? I would point out that Taiwan also has plenty air, surface, and anti-ship missles. This includes long range, supersonic surface to surface cruise missles. While traditionally Taiwan has opted for for area denial operations that makes them a very unappealing target, they now have the ability to strike China's mainland at will, and there is little China can do about it.

The way Ukraine (and the West) is taking it to Russia I would imagine would give Xi pause. I would think twice if I were him, assuming the west maintains their support. From a geopolitical perspective, after Russia, China is the biggest potential loser in the Ukrainian War. The west and partners in the East are revving up their defense industrial capacity and arming up in a big way. If the Ukrainian war keeps going the way it is, the Russians will be far less help if they're able to provide any significant help at all. China can't take on the entire free world by themselves without major help.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of that excuses the CCP's hypocrisy ignoring Ukraine's territorial integrity, simply because they want to support Russia. I'm willing to say that the US was dead wrong in some (not all) of those situations. Are you willing to say it is wrong for China to support Russia violating Ukraine's territorial integrity, and that they should condemn Russia without delay?

US has never been on the right side of history in the past half a century, and US is sure as hell not on the right side of history trying to start a war with China right now. Why should China side with US over Ukraine's territorial integrity as US violates Chinese territorial integrity? Furthermore, your entire position is incoherent here. Seems like when it comes to Taiwan you are supporting separatism, while when i…

> Why should China side with US over Ukraine's territorial integrity as US violates Chinese territorial integrity?

I'm asking you and the CCP to stand for Ukraine's territorial integrity and to rebuke Russia. If territorial integrity and international norms are to be respected, shouldn't you and the CCP do that because it is the morale and consistent thing to do? A code of morality is not dependent on what others do, so talking about the US is a red herring.

> Furthermore, your entire position is incoherent here. Seems like when it comes to Taiwan you are supporting separatism,

I wish for the status quo and peace between China and Taiwan for as long as is practically possible. I think that major figures like Pelosi and others visiting Taiwan is pointlessly provocative and idiotic. On the other hand, Xi and the CCP constantly yelling at everyone to respect what China's territorial integrity, while condoning Putin's invasion is irreconcilable, competely devoid of morality, and oozes the worst kind of cynicism. It is detestable and you should repudiate it without delay.

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