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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

economist.com

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#231

Post by mupuff1234 »

tablespoon wrote: post #226
mupuff1234 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just don't think that assumption is true. There probably is a pain threshold that beyond it China won't invade Taiwan as logically it just won't be worth it.

> I just don't think that assumption is true. There probably is a pain threshold that beyond it China won't invade Taiwan as logically it just won't be worth it. The question is, can Taiwan get there? I doubt it, and if it tries and fails to reach the threshold, it will only provoke China (or more specifically, the Chinese leadership ). Limited nuclear war is an automatic loss condition for Taiwan, but it's only very…

So I think the big question would be what would be that threshold, and that would mostly be dependent on what is the CCPs main goal.

If it is some ideological goal then I agree the threshold might be impossible to get to, but if the goal is to become the worlds super power than a few strategic nukes can definitely makes a big impact.

Now I don't view the CCP as being fanatic, they have power based goals, and if those goals are made impossible by a few nukes then that should change things.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#232

Post by missedthecue »

lumost wrote: post #228
dirtyid wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PRC/TW conflict already legally ongoing civil war. PRC a2d2 extends all the way to guam, west tw shore trivially deniable from even mainland, not that there's major ports/landing options or that mountains and limited connections make east/west logisitcs unfeasible. Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted.

> Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted. The Berlin airlift had a similar dynamic. The USSR could have shot down the planes - but they did not as it would have brought them too close to war. If the US/Japan sends an escorted "relief" convoy via air or sea - China is unlikely to intercept without triggering a direct conflict. A direct war between the US/Japan/Australi…

China doesn't have to destroy US airplanes, only port and aircraft infrastructure in Taiwan. They would not have to risk direct conflict with the US.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#235

Post by yogthos »

nl wrote: post #229
yogthos wrote: post #31

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…

> Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. Amusingly, reference [1] that you point at is arguing that Taiwan is an independent country (the opposite to what you are saying): > Hence, the restoration of Taiwan, Penghu, and all other appurtenant islands as an integral part of the ROC’s territory is without question legally binding. The ROC government and the majority of its people strongly disagree that Taiwan’s…

As I've repeatedly explained to you in this very thread, the position of the UN and vast majority of countries in the world is that Taiwan is a province of China. This is a simple fact, and it's frankly astounding that you keep trying to spin it as anything other.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#236

Post by yrdmb »

DennisP wrote: post #85
aseerdbnarng wrote: post #57

While the Chinese threat to Taiwan is not something to be dismissed completely, the article doesn’t mention just how incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be devastating so I really struggle to see a convincing case fo…

Also they import about 90% of their oil. They probably assumed that sanctions would not be all that severe, given their pivotal position in the world economy. Perhaps they'll reconsider after seeing the level of sanctions against Russia.

[flagged]

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#237

Post by midoridensha »

yogthos wrote: post #204
infamia wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Avtually, he is correct and you are badly misunderstanding the U.S. position of strategic ambiguity [0]. The PRC and the ROC believed for decades and each one claimed that they are both the one true China and the other is an imposter. The US agrees that there is one true China, but they won't say which one. Confusing? That's pretty much the point. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_of_deliberate_ambigui...

That's complete and utter nonsense because US has formal relations with PRC and does not have formal relations with ROC.

Yet the US sells arms to Taiwan, sends politicians to visit, conducts freedom-of-navigation exercises in the strait, etc. "Formal relations" are meaningless, they're just lip service.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#238

Post by lumost »

missedthecue wrote: post #232
lumost wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted. The Berlin airlift had a similar dynamic. The USSR could have shot down the planes - but they did not as it would have brought them too close to war. If the US/Japan sends an escorted "relief" convoy via air or sea - China is unlikely to intercept without triggering a direct conflict. A direct war between the US/Japan/Australi…

China doesn't have to destroy US airplanes, only port and aircraft infrastructure in Taiwan. They would not have to risk direct conflict with the US.

Directly attacking food shipments/landings would invite more sanctions and increase the likelihood of more weapons being delivered to defend said infrastructure.

Past studies have shown that even nukes have trouble knocking out rail and port infrastructure. It’s highly unlikely that china would be capable of achieving and holding full air supremacy in Taiwan. Particularly if SAM systems are readily replaced.

The two thousand cruise missiles launched by Russia into Ukraine have failed to degrade infrastructure. Even with 20k+ cruise missiles - makeshift ports were constructed in days during ww2.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#239

Post by midoridensha »

yogthos wrote: post #235
nl wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. Amusingly, reference [1] that you point at is arguing that Taiwan is an independent country (the opposite to what you are saying): > Hence, the restoration of Taiwan, Penghu, and all other appurtenant islands as an integral part of the ROC’s territory is without question legally binding. The ROC government and the majority of its people strongly disagree that Taiwan’s…

As I've repeatedly explained to you in this very thread, the position of the UN and vast majority of countries in the world is that Taiwan is a province of China. This is a simple fact, and it's frankly astounding that you keep trying to spin it as anything other.

It's astounding that you actually believe official positions.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#240

Post by jh721 »

epolanski wrote: post #175
glass3 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only the New Territories were leased. >The colony faced an uncertain future as the end of the New Territories lease approached, and Governor Murray MacLehose raised the question of Hong Kong's status with Deng Xiaoping in 1979.[84] Diplomatic negotiations with China resulted in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, in which the United Kingdom agreed to transfer the colony in 1997 and China would guarantee Hong Kon…

So what are you debating?

> Hong Kong was leased to Britain till 1997.

This is not accurate. The Hong Kong Island and the Kowloon Peninsula were ceded to Britain in perpetuity, not leased.

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