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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

economist.com

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#221

Post by mupuff1234 »

tablespoon wrote: post #153
mupuff1234 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down. If they do, problem solved. If they don't, at that stage it probably didn't hurt.

> You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down. Then China detonates ten over open waters, and tells "you" to back down and not go there. The magic deterrent value of nukes (mutually assured destruction) doesn't work if one side can't assure destruction of the other. Even if Taiwan can manage such a show of nuclear force, China can (credibly) threaten to annihilate it if it attacks, but the reverse i…

I just don't think that assumption is true. There probably is a pain threshold that beyond it China won't invade Taiwan as logically it just won't be worth it.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#222

Post by dirtyid »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #110
ninethirty wrote: post #58

If China does invade, then it seems likely that North Korea would also invade SK, forcing the US to fight on at least 2-fronts, or 3 depending on what Russia is doing. If I was rich I'd move to Buenos Aires, the Paris of South America, and wait this thing out.

Why would North Korea try that? I don't believe there is any sign they have plan to invade South Korea.

Unlikely NKR would invade but theyve explicitly stated US intervention in TW especially from SKR could destablize and pop off drama on the peninsula.

https://www.nknews.org/2021/10/reckless-interference-in-taiw...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#223

Post by tablespoon »

krisoft wrote: post #185
tablespoon wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down. Then China detonates ten over open waters, and tells "you" to back down and not go there. The magic deterrent value of nukes (mutually assured destruction) doesn't work if one side can't assure destruction of the other. Even if Taiwan can manage such a show of nuclear force, China can (credibly) threaten to annihilate it if it attacks, but the reverse i…

> The magic deterrent value of nukes (mutually assured destruction) doesn't work if one side can't assure destruction of the other. Even if Taiwan can manage such a show of nuclear force, China can (credibly) threaten to annihilate it if it attacks, but the reverse isn't true. Exactly! China has ~350 warheads, and they play a shell game where they have more silos than ICBMs and they are swapping the ICBMs around the…

> China has ~350 warheads...

And more every day. I've read they're estimated to have 1000 by the end of the decade.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#224

Post by tablespoon »

DennisP wrote: post #168
tablespoon wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> ...the article doesn’t mention just how incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be devastating... >> Also they import about 90% of their oil. > They probably assumed that sanctions would not be all that severe, given…

Exactly. Russia is able to withstand the sanctions because they are major exporters of food and oil. China is in the opposite position.

> Exactly. Russia is able to withstand the sanctions because they are major exporters of food and oil. China is in the opposite position.

I think you missed my point: there's synergy between the West's two pariahs. Russia can provide the food and oil China needs, and China can supply manufactured goods to Russia (and Africa and all kinds of other places that won't fall in line behind whatever the West wants them to do).

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#225

Post by nl »

yogthos wrote: post #155
nl wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You keep quoting this, seemingly without reading it: From the "Six Assurances" mentioned right there: > The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Additionally, the "Taiwan Relations Act" (again mentioned right there) says: > The act authorizes de facto diplomatic relations with the governing authorities by giving special powers to the AIT to the level that it is the de facto emba…

None of this has an actual meaning under international law. The legal standing of Taiwan is that it's part of China. Plain and simple.

> None of this has an actual meaning under international law. The legal standing of Taiwan is that it's part of China. Plain and simple.

While I understand you disagree with what I'm saying, trying to claim that the Taiwan situation is "Plain and simple" just seems an untenable claim.

The Taiwanese themselves have a different government to mainland China, with a pretty capable defense force.

There is a Taiwanese team in the Olympics.

How is any of that "plain and simple"?

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#226

Post by tablespoon »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #221
tablespoon wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down. Then China detonates ten over open waters, and tells "you" to back down and not go there. The magic deterrent value of nukes (mutually assured destruction) doesn't work if one side can't assure destruction of the other. Even if Taiwan can manage such a show of nuclear force, China can (credibly) threaten to annihilate it if it attacks, but the reverse i…

I just don't think that assumption is true. There probably is a pain threshold that beyond it China won't invade Taiwan as logically it just won't be worth it.

> I just don't think that assumption is true. There probably is a pain threshold that beyond it China won't invade Taiwan as logically it just won't be worth it.

The question is, can Taiwan get there? I doubt it, and if it tries and fails to reach the threshold, it will only provoke China (or more specifically, the Chinese leadership).

Limited nuclear war is an automatic loss condition for Taiwan, but it's only very costly to China. I believe nuclear weapons in Taiwan is one of China's stated red lines that will trigger war.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#227

Post by tablespoon »

brazzy wrote: post #162
ozmodiar wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never heard this take, even while in Taiwan. They aren't deluded, they know they aren't retaking the mainland. The reason they don't declare themselves a country is because China won't support it and they're worried it would trigger an invasion. China prefers Taiwan be a rebellious province rather than an independent country because it strengthens China's claim to the island. The KMT used to be feeling out a HK…

>China prefers Taiwan be a rebellious province rather than an independent country because it strengthens China's claim to the island. I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government is actually scared shitless that Taiwan declaring independence would reinvigorate independence movements in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and probably half a dozen more. A new civil war in China would make WWII look like a minor scuffle…

> I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government is actually scared shitless that Taiwan declaring independence would reinvigorate independence movements in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and probably half a dozen more.

Why would they be "scared shitless"? They've demonstrated the ability to crack down hard and defeat those movements. For instance: the Hong Kong protests ended almost immediately once China decided to take the gloves off.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#228

Post by lumost »

dirtyid wrote: post #220
lumost wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward side of Taiwan from both air and sea provided direct US/Japanese intervention to maintain sea lanes.

PRC/TW conflict already legally ongoing civil war. PRC a2d2 extends all the way to guam, west tw shore trivially deniable from even mainland, not that there's major ports/landing options or that mountains and limited connections make east/west logisitcs unfeasible. Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted.

> Mining sealanes and destroying airfields = west couldnt run blockade even if they wanted.

The Berlin airlift had a similar dynamic. The USSR could have shot down the planes - but they did not as it would have brought them too close to war. If the US/Japan sends an escorted "relief" convoy via air or sea - China is unlikely to intercept without triggering a direct conflict.

A direct war between the US/Japan/Australia/EU(?) and China benefits no one and runs dangerously close to a world war. In a similar way that Russia could attempt to stop arms flows from Poland and Germany into Ukraine - they don't really have the option without risking a full war which they cannot win.

In a hypothetical "narrow" conflict over the Taiwan straight between the US and China, a Chinese victory would mean 20k+ American casualties and an absent Pacific/Indian Ocean fleet. In the best case, China will no longer enjoy US protected global shipping lanes due to an absent USN. Worst case, the US threatens nuclear escalation to arrest the conflict (or follows through on the threat). A US victory would mean that the Chinese mainland is under direct attack from US carrier groups - Nuclear escalation would be almost inevitable.

The likely outcome is that the US and other Taiwan allies would be allowed to supply Taiwan without intervention in order to avoid a wider war.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#229

Post by nl »

yogthos wrote: post #31

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…

> Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1].

Amusingly, reference [1] that you point at is arguing that Taiwan is an independent country (the opposite to what you are saying):

> Hence, the restoration of Taiwan, Penghu, and all other appurtenant islands as an integral part of the ROC’s territory is without question legally binding. The ROC government and the majority of its people strongly disagree that Taiwan’s position is uncertain.

ROC = Republic of China, ie, Taiwan. And the author is "Director of Press & Information Dept. of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Japan." (Taipei = Taiwan of course)

[1] https://thediplomat.com/2014/08/no-taiwans-status-is-not-unc...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#230

Post by [deleted] »

yogthos wrote: post #84
manuelabeledo wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. I believe you haven't read the link you yourself posted.

I believe one of us didn't. Also, maybe keep reading the statement from US State Department until you comprehend it.

[deleted]
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