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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

economist.com

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#151

Post by simplotek »

dirtyid wrote: post #116
simplotek wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Reality going forward is Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that will never recover. Ukraine is holding out extremely well and poised to achieve an unconditional victory. It's victory comes at a price, but one that any free and independent nation prides itself of paying.

>unconditional victory Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deadend for the foreseeable future even if they manage to rebuild, which is far from certain as RU can drag conflict out for long time. That's going to be increasingly obvious as war contin…

I'm not going to go off on a tangent on a discussion on Taiwan, but I don't believe none of your assertions is grounded on reality. Ukraine is doing magnificently on the battlefield, specially given Russia planned their invasion to be a 3-day event with frontline soldiers packing parade uniforms and riot gear and Russian generals booking restaurants in Kiev in advance.

To attest to Ukraine's prowess, Russia's ruling regime is now afraid their defeat spells the collapse of Russia and consequently it's fragmentation.

In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine, not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU. There are countries who had a far less favourable postwar setting which rebounded quite well.

If Taiwan has any lesson to take from Ukraine, that lesson is that fighting for its independence pays off.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#152

Post by postingawayonhn »

yogthos wrote: post #143
postingawayonhn wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The free people of the world have a right to protect themselves from authoritarians and to assist other free people in doing so. That seems like a pretty fundamental moral principle to follow.

Being a vassal of the US is not freedom. Also, every instance of US "assisting" a country has resulted in creating hellish conditions for people of that country. Stop helping.

Western Europe, Taiwan, and South Korea and now all wealthy democracies thanks in a large part to US assistance.

It hasn't been successful every time the US has gone to a country's aid, but some countries just can't be helped.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#153

Post by tablespoon »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #63
krisoft wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war is imminent. Ok, they reveal them. What is next? Nukes are not magic. They are just weapons. What do you think would happen once they are “revealed”? What delivery mechanism are you proposing? Should they be aimed counter-force or counter-value? (Meaning are they trying to shoot the chinese nuclear launchers or are they lobbing them into chinese cities?) How…

You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down. If they do, problem solved. If they don't, at that stage it probably didn't hurt.

> You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down.

Then China detonates ten over open waters, and tells "you" to back down and not go there.

The magic deterrent value of nukes (mutually assured destruction) doesn't work if one side can't assure destruction of the other. Even if Taiwan can manage such a show of nuclear force, China can (credibly) threaten to annihilate it if it attacks, but the reverse isn't true.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#154

Post by ipnon »

I just returned from Taiwan and to be frank Cross-Strait relations and escalation seems to take up little real estate in the public psyche, I would estimate about as much as it does in the United States if not less. The news cycle is more likely to be filled with stories of scooter crashes or the war in Ukraine than any perceived deterioration in relations with PRC.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#155

Post by yogthos »

nl wrote: post #149
yogthos wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What Texas and Taiwan share is that they're both territories of sovereign nations. US has no business interfering in the internal politics of other countries. It's that simple. US State Department acknowledges that Taiwan is par of China in black and white: The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent across decades and administrations. The United States has a longstanding one China policy**, which is…

You keep quoting this, seemingly without reading it: From the "Six Assurances" mentioned right there: > The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Additionally, the "Taiwan Relations Act" (again mentioned right there) says: > The act authorizes de facto diplomatic relations with the governing authorities by giving special powers to the AIT to the level that it is the de facto emba…

None of this has an actual meaning under international law. The legal standing of Taiwan is that it's part of China. Plain and simple.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#156

Post by yogthos »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #152
yogthos wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being a vassal of the US is not freedom. Also, every instance of US "assisting" a country has resulted in creating hellish conditions for people of that country. Stop helping.

Western Europe, Taiwan, and South Korea and now all wealthy democracies thanks in a large part to US assistance. It hasn't been successful every time the US has gone to a country's aid, but some countries just can't be helped.

LMAO this same South Korea? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/young-sout...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#157

Post by ipnon »

newbie578 wrote: post #135

I'll never understand how are there so many CCP apologetics on HN.. Just read some of the comments.. Especially when people try to reason that a democratic USA is worse for your personal benefit than a communist China.. I do wonder if those kind of people actually lived in a communist country..

For a variety of reasons CCP talking points are legitimately popular in PRC, and there are many PRC citizens in the tech industry.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#158

Post by steponlego »

ChatGTP wrote: post #126
steponlego wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China would provide us with a few if we did that. Actually I believe the nukes are coming soon but thankfully will be limited to Europe and the UK.

Thankfully? There is nothing ‘thankfully’ about watching millions of people be vaporised or their skin melting off and children with cancers?

Hey, you don't get to start WWIII and then puss out at the last, most kinetic stage. Europe is solidly on track for nuclear war. Russia already said they wouldn't nuke the USA, after nuking the UK that'd take the starch out of us, in their estimation. I suspect they're correct.

NATO has been all fired up to balkanize Russia and start WWIII. I won't hear any whining and moaning when the dream comes true. I won't stand for it no matter HOW many people die.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#159

Post by [deleted] »

manuelabeledo wrote: post #148
yogthos wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Ignoring reality doesn't change it. Taiwan have limited and then banned mainland tourists for a while now. Chinese have zero freedom of movement in Taiwan. China asserts zero power, politically, judicially, executive, over Taiwan. Get over it.

[deleted]

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#160

Post by lumost »

missedthecue wrote: post #16
cm2187 wrote: post #7

What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?

A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels. Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China. Put under stress, Taiwan may be more inclined to reunify than most western spectators would like to assume.

A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward side of Taiwan from both air and sea provided direct US/Japanese intervention to maintain sea lanes.
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